Coppa Italia + others......

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specimen24 · Answer

back in min

specimen24 · Answer

England: (tailing)Lincoln City -1 @-120 - been keeping tabs on this club from afar as I tailed a buddy for them to nab a Top 6 finish at seasons end. felt "smart" with their hot start then they went into this major nosedive winning just once in 11 matches. get the cellar dweller here, a win puts them squarely back into that traditional "England Lower League Midtable Logjam" .  (11 clubs within 7 pts of another). would be nice to get the full &#x27;3&#x27; here as home strength/form &#x2B; Boltons god-awful road woes dictate a comfortable win. hopefully. ****EDIT**** apologies. didnt even bother to edit this writeup. buddy asked for thoughts and figured id just toss it up here.   had no time to post last night*****Coppa Italia - this is the Round where all the big teams make their entry (clubs whom finished 1-8th last year bypass till now. a few notes on this thing, pretty much "standard" stuff similar to other countries:sometimes, its next to impossible to gauge motivation for this thing. Juve might have won the Scudetto 8 straight years, but we&#x27;ve only won this comp 4 times this decade. the Scudetto race, UCL KO Rounds tend to take priority. and dont want to spread this with a broad brush but thats pretty much the same for most of the other clubs.  perhaps not for the Scudetto race but those european slots for next year or relegation dogfights. simply put, though theres the carrot dangling for winner getting a UEL spot next year; in reality, the Coppa clutters schedules &amp; screws up "routine".  and coaches/players hate this more than anything. leery to touch any of the big teams on -HC lines. Juve/Udinese - Juve tends to advance by "default". one of the futures i have are them to win two trophies, so guess in a way, hoping theyre motivated enough. theyll do just enough to advance; of course... winning the UCL would solve that problem but history has taught me to stop thinking that way. beat them here before the break 3-1 (scored all 3 before the half). Juve tends to sleepwalk through this Round, coming back from Rome, &amp; Sarri rotating obviously but bench depth is strong. perhaps maybe if i can get the juice down on the 1.5 its worth a shot, a # we covered in 5 straight vs them. but PASS on everything else.Inter/Cagliari - knowing Conte, put a gun to my head and Inter will be motivated for this thing.  especially since now theyre out of UCL. but he wasnt brought over for this;  Scudetto, Scudetto, Scudetto. Cagliari been talking bold this week. load of "BS" i think. fact of the matter is theyre free-falling down the table losing 4 straight now and out of european spot. Inter coming off a tough wknd with Atalanta. 300s are nuts, but im not fading Conte. and dont know what the h*ll to expect here.  PASS.Napoli/Perugia - friend down there has said things have gotten so bad for Napoli that theyre offering something like a 2-for-1 special for their Coppa/&#x27;A&#x27; home games this week to get people other than their Ultras to show up. ehhhhh   well, ive gone off enough about the fade on them, its well documented.  but this is a Coppa match, and this is vs a Serie B side. there is a very.... LARGE....gap in quality from a club in &#x27;A&#x27; to a club in &#x27;B&#x27;. and given all their struggles, Gattuso just might send out a strong side if nothing other than to help them mentally just get a win,  anywhere, anyhow.  if Gattuso elects to put in his regulars this might be a woodshed beating. ill happily take the -2 then get back to their auto-fade in Seerie A on the wknd. though Perugia did beat Sassuolo last round keep in mind Sass used their entire bench &amp;  didnt give a (bleep) about Coppa; yet still had 2/3 posession. Napoli -2 @-110 Lazio/Cremonese - Inzaghi is one of the "worst" (aka, plays the media) coaches when it comes to revealing intentions. he has an obligation to his fans, especially the Ultras down there, but constantly says one thing to media and goes out and does the polar opposite. they won this thing last year, at the expense of not qualifying for europe. now they are in 3rd and "Scudetto-challengers", Coppa might go on the backburner. but Crem is a midtable &#x27;B&#x27; side.... the skill gap is simply too wide. should be a comfy win for Lazio. PASS.

specimen24 · Answer

Fior/Atalanta - Bergamo side just finished playing Inter last wknd. UCL looming soon, and if you take a peek at their schedule they got Roma + Lazio right before those KO Round matches. last thing Gasperini an his thin bench needs is cluttering this even further. Fiorentina getting healthier, and Iachini (HC) appears to again be taking this somewhat seriously. dont know the lineups (wont have time to on Wed) so a little bit shooting-in-the-dark here but dont think this should be labelled an "upset" even tho the lines are suggesting otherwise. these two had a barnburner last year in the 1st leg of the semis with a 3-3 draw with Muriel getting the late draw for Viola, hes now playing for Atalanta. (if hes in the lineup, and you like goalscoring props, there might be some value there) so either way, expect to see some goals . and one last thing worth mentioning, its been a really long time since Atalanta has ever won in Fior. you have to go back towards the beginning of this century (15+ visits). so ill be taking the +1/2 and tossing a little on the outrights (its currently in the 190s at the time im typing, maybe can get it in 200s Wed if wait). should see a few goals here, so took the Over 3 @+110 ('push at worst' sort of thinking)

Milan/SPAL - i think books got this line 'wrong', Milano should be in the mid 350s as SPAL should be everyones auto-fade on the road. they only managed 2 shots last weekend even tho they won posession battle vs Fior. and currently the cellar-dweller domestically. Semplici has already stated hes going to rotate to focus on Serie A survival. (not sure if I should believe that) anyways, the mood with Milan is much much more upbeat now that the Swedish Meatball is around. called them out and nailed a nice road 'w' last wknd as they beat Cagliari and think this 'good vibe' in their lockerroom continues here. Milan already beat them 1-0 here ealier in season in the middle of a murder of a schedule. i hate HC's in this thing but getting '+' is worth the while already took Milan -1.5 @+130

Parma/Roma (thursday)- another line im not quite sure i understand. Parma already beat them here 2-0 back in November. and fast forward a little, Darth Vader just opened their New Year losing (happily) to both Turin sides @home and now find themselves out of that coveted 4th slot with a few other teams breathing fire up their a**es from below. and on top of that, they just lost their best midfielder for the season last Sunday. and suddenly have been very active in the transfer market these past few days. last thing they need is a midweek road trip after playing Juventus, vs a team whom has played them really tough the past few years. (that "Juve Hangover" should be in full effect here). the thing which concerns me is Parma is "right there" in the european fight in table and just recently played on Monday. and they have a bunch on the treatment table as well. going to sit tight as the line might move but definitely will be on Parma outrights. (currrently in low 200s) maybe can get it near the 300s on thursday.

i know im already 3 games into this thing, but forgotten had thrown some on the 1.5 for all 8 matches @+260 last week before torinos match (an annual thing). but this has hit just once this decade., someone always decides to (mentally) stay in bed.

GL to all

moemoney · Answer

Italy soccer legend.

Feelingz_it · Answer

Reopened up my account to say thanks!

DestroyThePitch · Answer

Spec    great writeups as always! Like the over in the Parma game today.  Not sure why, it just looks and feels like a spot where it might be a lil open today

specimen24 · Answer

moe,

ehhhh. just one of those stretches where everything goes right. soccer gods have been kind. nothing more, nothing less.

Feel

appreciate it.

DTP

remember the other day when I put tha joke up about Virgil? heres a comment from our 'Sport Director' (just a fancy title for a meaningless job people like to give themselves. laughing). to prove to you that sometimes the "higher ups" arent always the sharpest knives in the drawer. he went out and said this to the media: "“The idea of signing a defender is not in our minds, as we do not need any more centre-backs,”

“We have strong defenders and a complete squad at our disposal, especially as we hope to have Chiellini back very soon. We’re fine as we are.”

fine???

has he been WATCHING the matches this year I wonder? we've practically conceded more than last year already. and hes resting his hopes on Giorgio? the man tore his ACL, he wont be the same. good thing we still that fella up front, bad haircut and all. i swear our roster all goes to the same blind hairstylist.

anyways, they must have shut off VAR in 1st half last night. Gonzo was about....ohhhhh roughly 5 kilometres offsides on his goal - even used his arm too. not that it really mattered much but....how ya miss THAT one?

Lincoln City -1 @-120 (W)

Juve -1.5 @-120 (W)

Napoli -2 @-110 (P)

Fior +1/2 @+102, outright @+280, Fior/Atal over 3 @+110 (W, W, P)

Milan -1.5 @+130 (W)

Parma +1/2 @evens, outright @+280 (pending)

8-match over 1.5 @+260 (pending)

tonight, winner gets to pay a visit to our backyard next Tuesday. so.... naturally..... im kinda hoping Roma advance. the possibility of having a chance to beat them twice in 10 days is almost as good as the Holidays.

small problem tho in that a buddy parlayed all 7 of the outrights above and is sitting on a nice payout if Parma wins; took a bit of time but finally got him to hedge the +1/2 with Roma, juice-n-all. ehhh, anyways, sticking to my initial thoughts. nasty spot for Roma, Dzeko suspended, Zaniolo out for season, ton of lineup changes, & Fonseca switching formation. if they DO win, it better not be 1-0, im hoping im wrong, but this has all the makings of a snoozefest.

Parma +1/2 @-105, outright @+280

still have that 1.5 8-teamer alive. all needed is Parma to get a goal and will end the evening on the '+' side. we'll see how it goes.

will revisit this thread nxt week when Qtrs start.

GL to all

archtown · Answer

spec theres the 1-0 final smh

archtown · Answer

no way it goes over 2.5

specimen24 · Answer

Arch

, actually, that over should have hit. all parma needed to do was slide that pass across to teammate to tap in to an open net but tried to play "hero". was actually a nice save. ehhh.

well the PK helped secure the parlay tho missed out on the sides.

Parma +1/2 @+105, outright @+280 (L, L)

8 match over 1.5 @+260 (W)

Qtrs set, should be interesting:

Napolli/Lazio

Juve/Roma

Milan/Torino

Inter/Fior

will let this slide and revist next week.

specimen24 · Answer

getting these out of way....Qtr-finals set:Napoli/Lazio - technically, this is a Coppa match, not a Serie A game; so if one wants to get ticky-tacky about it then the &#x27;auto-fade&#x27; shouldnt apply. but just when ya thought they hit rock bottom, the hole got dug further the past few days with these new "issues". better than that 2-0 exact score run Juve gave me last year &#x2B; Inters Icardi mess combined. yeah, theyre @home for this one, and its a Coppa match too; but Napoli shouldnt be anywhere near slight favorites. and to provide a little insight, look whom is coming to visit next Sunday? their owner (DeLaurentis) already threatened to send team to retreat to prepare for that; hello?....... you have a Coppa match on Tues?  in any case, its bad. and books (at least the ones online) amazingly have refused to adjust. havent even checked Lazios side of it, dont even know whom Inzaghi is sending out there. theyre the defending champs and seem motivated to repeat.  so ill gladly take the 170s until this joyride ends.  Lazio to win @&#x2B;175Juve/Roma - no play. possibly beating them twice in 10 days is better than Xmas. again, this never really has been Juves &#x27;priority&#x27;; Sarri will rotate  but our bench is deep and playing Roma ensures the motivation will be there. we have that nasty trip to Naples on Sunday, but then again, Romas week is even &#x27;worse&#x27; as their inner-city derby with Lazio coming up. interesting to see if Fonseca risks injury and sends out a full-strength side. PASS.its late, not in mood to start another thread, tossing this in here:EPL: not sure if I should start being concerned but need 10 pts from Leicesters final 15 games. dont laugh, nasty season ending schedule plus theyre winless 3 straight now vs teams in lower half of table. had been tempted to take the prices on City to win UCL (they currently/apparently overtook &#x27;Pool as "favs"; a friend up there definitely doesnt like how theyre playing. but as mentioned in futures thread at start of season, felt Pool/City would flip-flop "priorities" (aka EPL/UCL) and it seems to be that way.  we&#x27;ll see. both get the Madrid squads.  4th and Final Round of the btts festival. split it right down the middle over the Holidays, small gain thus far. Villa/Watford btts &#x2B; o2.5 @&#x2B;105Bourne/Brighton btts &#x2B; o2.5 @&#x2B;110Palace/South btts @-120Everton/Newcastle btts @-105Sheffield/ManC btts @-111Chelsea/Arsenal btts &#x2B; o2.5 @-105Leicester/WHU btts @-133Tott/Norwich btts @-137ManU/Burnley btts @&#x2B;105Wolves/Pool btts @-120GL to all

mr_bollox · Answer

not sure if I should start being concerned but need 10 pts from Leicesters final 15 games. dont laugh, nasty season ending schedule plus theyre winless 3 straight now vs teams in lower half of table. had been tempted to take the prices on City to win UCL (they currently/apparently overtook 'Pool as "favs"; a friend up there definitely doesnt like how theyre playing. but as mentioned in futures thread at start of season, felt Pool/City would flip-flop "priorities" (aka EPL/UCL) and it seems to be that way. we'll see. both get the Madrid squads. 4th and Final Round of the btts festival. split it right down the middle over the Holidays, small gain thus far. Villa/Watford btts + o2.5 @+105Bourne/Brighton btts + o2.5 @+110Palace/South btts @-120Everton/Newcastle btts @-105Sheffield/ManC btts @-111Chelsea/Arsenal btts + o2.5 @-105Leicester/WHU btts @-133Tott/Norwich btts @-137ManU/Burnley btts @+105Wolves/Pool btts @-120GL to all[/Quote]

spec, I've also got a nice future on leics, slight blip but they'll be fine, no-one apart from liverpool is showing any reliable form in the league.

slim pickings if BTTS is only hitting at 56% over 2.5 is a better play

specimen24 · Answer

Boll,

good to see you my friend and hope all is well. regarding Leicester, truth of the matter is theyre about 9-11 pts ahead of where I THOUGHT theyd be at this juncture, so im grateful for that. they still have to run the gauntlet vs the big boys up there so dropping pts to these recent teams isnt exactly how my melon "planned" it out. (laughing). the btts? ehh, i never approach this with big hopes; historically, havent lost my shirt on it and sometimes can reel off a 9-1 round. i prefer the btts option instead of a juiced 'over'; the chances of it falling 1-1, 2-1 are much higher than a 3-0/4-0 scoreline and pays better. have had to take the 'btts + over' option frequently these 4 rounds this year. we'll see how it goes.

added:

Napoli/Lazio 1st half over 1.5 @+170

GL to all

moemoney · Answer

Missed PK and VAR strikes again

Legomaheggroll · Answer

As always I enjoy your insight into Italian football. I&#x2019;ve gotta go with a juventus win over Roma given Juve current form. It doesn&#x2019;t hurt that Dzeko is out too. FORZA JUVE!

specimen24 · Answer

Moe

well, for me, cant really complain, that was a sweet ride Napoli gave me the past few months and it had to end sometime. but cazzo, got to agree with you there; Immobile slips on the PK? (did i NOT say last week he tends to disappear the bigger the match.

)and that 2nd red was simply a "make-up" for the 1st one he handed out which was a mistake too. and the woodwork was hit about 4-5 times. VAR was correct tho. Soccer Gods had me on their radar last night. now can get back to 'normal' capping for their games. h*ll of a way to end a streak though.

Lego

appreciate it. will post the msg i sent to a buddy for tonights game. a little pressed for time

Villa/Watford btts + o2.5 @+105 (W)

Bourne/Brighton btts + o2.5 @+110 (W)

Palace/South btts @-120 (L)

Everton/Newcastle btts @-105 (W)

Sheffield/ManC btts @-111 (L)

Chelsea/Arsenal btts + o2.5 @-105 (W)

bunch of timely late goals in 4 of those matches turned the table around. but how ya blow a 2 goal lead at home during injury time? (Everton)

back in a bit, the heck with attempting to get new thread up

specimen24 · Answer

having a very nice month, decide to take a bunch of chances this evening.

Lego....

Coppa Italia thoughts: (taking off tinted glasses). Sarri still tight-lipped on Christians status, he's been on fire since break; was rested last round as well so its hard to gauge. Dzeko suspended for Roma; so both***? will be without their best strikers. as mentioned last week, tho Juve has won 8 straight Scudettos, we've only won this thing 4 times; and a win here adds two more to an already packed schedule next month, which would be that trip to France for UCL, then Inter @home, then the semis in this thing. and this has always been "3rd" on the priority list so its kind of hard to gauge the motivation. Sarri needs to start managing the bench for the 2-month grind. for Roma, theyre about to be taken over by an American whom is tossing boatloads of $$ around. they have that massive, massive, "Derby della Capitalle" with their crosstown sweethearts Lazio on Sunday so I cannot see them going all-out here either. for them, last 9 visits to Turin? 9 losses; and 7 of them were cleansheets too (they havent even scored in last 4 trips). but must advise the majority of those was when we had Giorgio back there and our backline/system is nothing like yesteryear. Juve has just 10 cleansheets this season, almost just HALF of the total last year at this point in the season. so we've been leaky. so take it for whatever its worth. the btts is kind of juiced, but if you tack on the 2.5 there might be some value there. NOBODY likes/wants/needs to play xtra time in these things (especially with big wknd matches upcoming). so you should at least see both sides going for the w after the 75th minute if its still level. i think i just talked self into it, small play on Juve/Roma btts + over 2.5 @+105

Spain Cup: had this been two legged would have faded ALL the Liga clubs as theyd wait till the return leg and thump their opponents; but this year this round is one-leg. have to back off doing that.

Sociedad/Espanyol btts + over 2.5 @ +125- still trying to figure out these lines. Sociedad slumping, had won just one of their last 5 league matches heading into the holidays and were just thumped by Betis. Espanyol might be dead last, but got a draw with Barca before holidays and backed them for a nice win @Villareal last wknd. outrights shouldnt be in the 600s, but the +1.5 is juiced. (cazzo). will take a small shot at this ending level. Espanyol +1/2 @+210

Logrones +1 @+110 - Valencia gets Barca at home in 3 days (in an early start too). hard to see them too overly excited for this one.

specimen24 · Answer

EPL: (tailing)got the btts for all 3 matches already so will see how those go.

ManU/Burnley - this is more from a statistical standpoint than from "team news" or form. (yes, Im aware of Rashfords status) Ive always felt midweek slates favor the bigger clubs with deeper benches and falls in line with this one. Burnley lost all 3 of their midweek matches thus far, (and checking the stats, were badly dominated in their roadies vs City & Everton, they even lost to Villa @home too) and their 20 goals conceded on road puts them amongst league leaders in that category. for United, with Chelsea dropping points last night gives them the chance to pull within 3 so thats good motivation; and theyve done well in midweek this season. I like United here, but need to dial down the risk as this somewhat concerns me; tho ManU has never lost in the 9 meetings since Burnley promoted... theyve also strangely havent beaten them @Old Trafford 3 straight. ManU -1 @-133

(tailing)

Copa Lib:

the new season hasnt even begun for many of the teams.

San Jose to win @+140 - one of my favorite angles. altitude, altitude, altitude. and it must be a pain to make that long flight and have to play at a stadium 3700+ metres (12,000 feet) in the sky. and its summer on that side of the equator, so theres a big difference in the temps as well. including yesterdays match, home side in these 1st Round openers had lost just 3 times in the last 16 matches past 5 years. I rate Paraguay league much higher than Bolivia, but their entire objective isnt to even win this one, just keep things close and blow them away i nthe return leg.

smaller plays: over 2.5 @+120, 2nd half over 1.5 @+130

Progreso(Uru)/Barcelona(Ecu) - tiny Progreso kind of sounds Italian.

ehhh, in any case, 1st time in 30 years in this thing apparently. was told the outrights seems "off". Barcelona was booted/thumped by another Uruguayan club (Defensor) at this round last year; and Progreso has beaten that team two straight times. theyre in big trouble in the 2nd leg but for this one will have to go for the win. a little concerned the Ecu squad will just get the away goal and then park the bus. so just taking the over 2 @+104 here. and toss a little on the 2.5 @+180 for fun.

GL to all

Legomaheggroll · Answer

Ronaldo up front with higuain. Dybala on the bench.

specimen24 · Answer

Lego

Sarri changed his ways/stances this season by rotating. good thing too, our schedule next month is brutal. another "standard" win for us this season: grab lead, sit back, concede.

Juve/Roma btts + over 2.5 @+105 (W)

Sociedad/Espanyol btts + over 2.5 @ +105 Espanyol +1/2 @+210 (L, L)

Logrones +1 @+110 (P)

ManU -1 @-133 (L)

San Jose to win @+140 (L)

over 2.5 @+120, 2nd half over 1.5 @+130 (L, L)

Progreso/Barcelona over 2 @+104, 2.5 @+180 (P, L)

well, got the Juve play and 2 of the 3 up in EPL; took a peek at the SJ stats out there in Lib, glad I didnt watch that one though curious how that ended 0-1. friend up there telling me United fans were leaving little after the hour mark; that cant be good. couldnt even sniff out a goal to give me the sweep. ehh, got the final btts with Wolves/Pool and end the yearly festival on the "+" side. big wknd card shaping up & the other 2 Qtr-finals next week.

Villa/Watford btts + o2.5 @+105 (W)

Bourne/Brighton btts + o2.5 @+110 (W)

Palace/South btts @-120 (L)

Everton/Newcastle btts @-105 (W)

Sheffield/ManC btts @-111 (L)

Chelsea/Arsenal btts + o2.5 @-105 (W)

Leicester/WHU btts @-133 (W)

Tott/Norwich btts @-137 (W)

ManU/Burnley btts @+105 (L)

Wolves/Pool btts @-120 (pending)

let this slide till next week.

GL to all

jkatakoon · Answer

Spec - Posting this right after this hit. Tailed you on this &#xA;Will both teams score (Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Liverpool FC): - Yes -118

jdukes0004 · Answer

Excellent call on BTTS Liverpool/Wolverhampton

Coppa Italia + others......

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