Euro 2024 - Observations & Picks

We are now through two games of Euro 2024 and can put together some kind of pecking order .  Here is how I see it thus far, with rankings ; 

1. Spain - 

Not an obvious clear favorite, but I see this team as the one to beat in the tournament.  Forget about the "tiki taka" form of football of the Spaniard's past.  This Spaniard system of the last 15 years or so had its critics (and rightfully so), of never putting enough goals on target though dominating possession.  Now, with the likes of young studs like Nico Williams , they can still pounce on the ball,  AND stretch the field vertically.   They are the team to beat. 

Next game;

Spain vs. Albania

Spain -1, -1.5 ; -104  (1 unit) , forget about Spain not potentially playing all their starters in this 3rd game.  This should still cover

2. Germany -

What else is there to say about Germany ?  They almost always seem to be "big time"  competitive.  Toni Kroos is the team veteran with plenty of talent around him to bring home the trophy....Their quality of play thus far in the Tournament doesn't match up to Spain, which makes it difficult to give them the top notch ; and  I'm not sure their next match against the Swiss tells us much, since they don't need to win it and may not play all starters... Nevertheless, Germany look to be in it till the end. 

3. France - 

This team is really solid.  Mbappe is the superstar, but he has others around him to support the cast.  But I'm not sure they have that "it" factor to win it.  We're about see Mbappe's version of the "Phantom of the Opera" with his face mask, but I don't see them getting it done this time.  Griezmann is still a stud, but  I'd prefer Olivier Giroud playing 60 minutes instead of 15 every game, and that just may be the difference...Obviously, age is a factor for him...  

4.  Portugal - 

Whenever you have CR7 on the field, you have a chance to win.  I picked Portugal to win the tournament, but I don't think they are the strongest team through 2 games.  He has a pretty  good supporting cast, but I don't think it's enough to lift the trophy again as in 2016.  As an example just today, they had some clumsy moments on defense in their win against Turkey.... Turkey...  That 3-0 win I think is a bit of a mirage IMHO..  An own goal on Turkey, and another perfectly placed ball by Portugal on a 2-0 advantage that Ronaldo unselfishly passed to his teammate (you read that right .  Lol) was the difference maker.  But they didn't bring an onslaught of opportunities ... 3 Shots on goal which they converted..  I think there is some value betting "against" Portugal in the KO rounds..  

5-8.  England, Belgium, Netherlands, Italy 

These teams are all strong and good enough to lift the trophy with a little bit of luck........ but they need a little bit of luck.  England have Harry Kane and a bunch of other players.  I don't care who these guys play for in "league play", I look at how they perform as a "unit".  And England seems to have regressed yet again as a "team" .  They reached the final in the last Euro, but they seem a far fetch away from a deep run in this tournament. 

Belgium are dangerous with KDB and Lukaku in form, and that is what they will need to make a deep run this tournament.   They are good , but they are not the FIFA #3 ranked team in the world.  That much is clear... 

The Netherlands are a bit of quagmire.  They have talent on this field w/ Memphis Dupay & Gakpo , but I'm not sure they have enough to make a threat in the tournament. 

Italy won the tournament last time around, but I don't think they've got enough here.   They managed to frustrate the Spaniards in their last game.  But they conceded that early goal against Albania in their first game , only to fight back and get the win.  It's hard to underestimate the Italians, but I don't think they will have enough this time around...

9.  Austria  - 

I can't tell  you 1 person on this team, but damn they look solid as a "unit" based on what I've seen....     They could really surprise in this tournament...  

Italy vs. Croatia 

Italy pk, -½ -108   (1 unit) 

Very nice read  Thank you 

Yesterday results ; 

Spain vs. Albania Spain -1, -1.5 ; -104  (1 unit)  ; -0.5 units

Italy vs. Croatia  Italy pk, -½ -108   (1 unit) ; -0.5 units

Tuesday ; 

Slovenia vs. England ; SLV (in game) +0.5 ; +232 (0.5 unit) 

Slovenia vs. England ; SLV (in game) +0.5 ; +232 (0.5 unit)  ; +1.16 units

That went about as expected, with an another uninspiring effort from the English.  Besides Harry Kane, this team really lacks any sort of play-makers and "finishers."  Sure they dominated possession, but they failed with any real creativity to break through the SLV defense.  Elite teams find a way to break through.  And that blown opportunity late in the game by Palmer to put the game away ?   The Italians didn't miss that type of opportunity, yesterday.   This is by far the weakest Group (C) in the Tournament, and the English were very lucky to draw such weak teams.  I'm not sure if England gets exposed in the first KO round game, but there will likely be value "against" this team if they get any further past that.. 

@the1toturn2

( in play)  Belgium ; -108 (0.5 unit)

Belgium had their " odd- man rushes " chances in the 2nd half,  but they come away with nothing 

( in play)  Belgium ; -108 (0.5 unit) ; -0.5 units

Denmark vs. Germany - 

Germany -1 , +100 ; (1 unit) 

I don't think there's much to overthink here.  Germany is still the top team in the tournament (from my earlier rankings), and were only team to win all 3 games  in group play.  Denmark played in arguably the weakest of all groups, and didn't even get a win.   I think there's a better than 50/50 chance that Germany wins by 2+ goals, so that is the play... 

Belgium vs. France - (2 units)

France -1/2, -108 ; 

It seems there is quite a bit of talk about France only scoring 1 goal in group play, but I don't think it's something to be too concerned about.  They had plenty of chances, and they have playmakers all over the field.  The goals will come is my contention.  France ended up with more points in a more difficult group than Belgium, and I don't particularly like the "lack" of flow to Belgium's game.  They are too dependent on KDB & Lukaku to make things go.  I think France have the better "team" top to bottom, and should pull through in regulation..  

*correction ; Spain is still the top team in the tournament (from my earlier rankings), not Germany. 

Turkey vs. Austria - 

Austria -1/2, -108 ; (1 unit) 

Austria looked really good in group play, beating powerhouses Netherlands and should've drawn with France (due to an Own Goal).  They are a definite sleeper team in this tourney and look solid as a "collective unit" ; I believe Austria's performance against superior quality of opponents in group play (compared with Turkey's) will shine through and beat an over matched Turkey squad. 

Slovakia vs. England - 

Slovakia +700 ; (0.5 unit) 

This is my upset pick of the first KO round.  England have looked really lackluster thus far, despite winning their (weak) group.  Kane continues to be the big playmaker, but the rest of the squad just doesn't look like a good, cohesive unit.  For such a quality side, I have seen on numerous occasions where simple passes in the defensive zone be hit too hard, or too soft leading to counterattacks.  This is basic stuff...  Slovakia has already beaten a Belgium side in the tourney, and I see England with some eery similarities to Belgium in that they have both underwhelmed in this tourney, and both are top-heavy w/ their playmakers.  

]Denmark vs. Germany -  Germany -1 , +100 ; (1 unit)  

That went about as expected.  Lots of moving pieces with a goal called back for each team, and a PK awarded to Germany, but they had many more quality scoring opportunities than Denmark.   Germany is a brutal, well-oiled, efficient machine, and will be a tough out the rest of the way. 

Great analysis mate! Similar thoughts but always good to see others' observations. 

Thanks for sharing and BOL! 

Southgate is a bad coach. Team doesn’t have faith in him 

Completely agree ..  Southgate was less than a minute away from England making a disastrous exit from the Euros, and hearing about it from the English Press !  

As it stands, they will live another day...  

Slovakia vs. England -  Slovakia +700 ; (-0.5 unit) 

Wow, talk about snatching "defeat" from the jaws of "victory."  This was less than 60 seconds from being a winner.  My previous analysis for this match were accurate for about the first 65-70 minutes ; it was a very uninspired, unintelligent offensively, lazy defensively effort from the English that made them susceptible to being upset.  That goal from Slovakia was the product of what should have been a non-threatening ball near mid-field.  But it leads to an unusual fast break for the Slovaks because the English defender fails to get back.   And then the ball hit from midfield towards goal by the Slovak ?  If that goes in , Southgate would never hear the end of it .  The English defender was not even looking at the ball being passed to him.  Elite squads don't do this type of stuff, but it happens "every" game by the English defenders.  The Slovaks just couldn't hang on for those last 20-25 minutes of the game ; England had more chances, and it looked like Slovakia were just trying to hang on.  In the end it wasn't enough. 

England had better clean up their act, because the Swiss will not allow them to regain their footing if the English start out slow...    

Belgium vs. France -  France -1/2, -108 ;  (2 units) 

France finally put one in the goal (no, that wasn't an OG FIFA, c'mon) .  France was lucky to get this one in the remaining minutes of the match, but they were the more deserving side with more scoring opportunities.  It's still a bit disappointing France really can't get more of these shots to get on target.  Many shots going high over the crossbar just doesn't cut it for all this French talent.  It still feels like there is a match where they will break through, because the dribbling in tight quarters is still quite crisp in the penalty box area.  They just need to finish better ; the talent is there, and Mbappe is a one-man wrecking crew still looking to net one..  

FIFA, can we get this "Own Goal" stuff sorted out ?  Yes, it was an "immediate" deflection off the defenseman 10 yards from goal, but that's a far cry from an "own goal" that comes to mind when a "late" deflection occurs off a defender standing in front of his own goal.  FIFA, let's get this figured out.  This penalizes the goal from the Frenchman, which he totally deserved.  

Some last minute housecleaning before we get to the 2nd KO round tomorrow ; 

Turkey vs. Austria -

Austria -1/2, -108 ; (-1 unit) 

That was a tough outcome for Austria.  They had better scoring opportunities, but Turkey managed scored on two free kicks which were headed into the goal (by the same player).  

Overall through 1st KO round ; 

3-4 ; +1.16 units

Tomorrow, July 5th,  features perhaps the best day of soccer we will see in 1 day this entire year.  And, in my eyes, Spain-Germany is the best match to be played between 2 heavyweights at this year's Euros.   

Incredibly, not much has changed from my original rankings and thoughts/observations on June 22 in this thread.  I give the (slight) edge to Spain over Germany, and France over Portugal.  For all the accolades that the 41 y/o Pepe seems to get from Portugal, I wonder if this is the match where Mbapppe or one of the other quality players on France exposes Pepe.  (He nearly cost Portugal the game against Slovenia).  

Spain vs. Germany - 

Spain to Advance  ,  - 120 ; (1 unit) 

France vs. Portugal - 

France pk, -1/2 ,  -102 ; (1 unit) 

Switzerland vs. England - 

Can England finally put together a solid effort and look like a "Team," instead of a bunch of disjointed players and Harry Kane.  I'm not sure they are the better "team" against the Swiss, and will go for the slight upset. 

Switzerland +280 ; (0.5 unit) 

Switzerland pk, +0.5,  -105 (1 unit) 

Turkey vs. Netherlands - 

This will be a complete mismatch, and I expect the Netherlands to breeze through this game, much like they did against Romania.  As mentioned earlier, Turkey was only able to score their goals on set pieces in their previous match, and were quite fortunate to win.  Their luck will run out here, and see a 2-0, 3-0 type win for the Dutch. 

Netherlands -162 ; (1 unit) 

Spain vs. Germany - 

Spain to Advance  ,  - 120 ; (1 unit) 

Wow, that sure lived up to its billing as possibly the best match of the Euros.  That game could really have gone either way , but happy to get the win.  As we go forward,  I'm a bit concerned on the Spain players that won't play in the semis because of yellow/red cards, and the injury prognosis of Pedri. 

France vs. Portugal - 

France pk, -1/2 ,  -102 ; (- 0.5 unit)  

Lost half the bet here w/ the "crazy" asian lines . lol  ..  Not sure what to make of this match other than that both sides had their chances.  I find it incredible that France still hasn't netted a goal other than a penalty shot in regulation throughout this tournament.    They build up the attack well and give themselves opportunities, but haven't finished w/ the same quality.  This team scares me a bit here now in the Semifinal, because they are so dynamic, including an underrated Teo Hernandez that joins the attack on the left-flank when they have the ball.  Mbappe, Kante, Griezmann, Hernandez... How long can they remain so incompetent on offense ?