FEB 5 COPA LIBERTADORES WAGERS (writeups/rationale to be supplemented)
Palestino v. Nacional (Uru) 4:45 PM CST
Palestino o/2,25 (+108) 3 units
Palestino o/2 (-132) 2 units
Independiente del Valle v. Estudiantes 7 PM CST
Inde pendent del Valle ... ml +114 3 units (very drunk when I made this wager last night - need to go back and see why I liked it ... since line has moved big time against me )
Ind del Valle o/2 -108
Random So. American Wagers
Palmeiras v. Ponte Preta 3:30 PM CST
Palmeiras -,75 -115
Disbarred
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
COPA MEX 2015*
ROI +0.92
W/L/D: 5/4/0
COPA LIB 2015*
ROI: +15.71
W/L/D: 14/2/0
Random So. American Wagers 2015*
ROI: +0.03
W/L/D: 4/4/0
FEB 5 COPA LIBERTADORES WAGERS (writeups/rationale to be supplemented)
Palestino v. Nacional (Uru) 4:45 PM CST
Palestino o/2,25 (+108) 3 units
Palestino o/2 (-132) 2 units
Independiente del Valle v. Estudiantes 7 PM CST
Inde pendent del Valle ... ml +114 3 units (very drunk when I made this wager last night - need to go back and see why I liked it ... since line has moved big time against me )
Independiente del Valle ... ml +114 3 units (this is going to be tough)
Ind del Valle o/2 -108
Adding:
Ind del Valle o/2.5 (+162)
Ind del Valle o/2 (-104) 2 units
Independiente del Valle's team is young . . . they are going to play reckless at altitude . . . with fresh legs . . . meanwhile, Estudiantes intends to score an away goal this evening . . . there will be no bus-parking/bunkering. Ind del VAlle spent time over the last couple of months trying to set up its offensive unit in anticipation of tonight's match - knowing that there will be no victory back in Argentina for the reverse . . . tonight is the night . . .
Disbarred
0
Independiente del Valle v. Estudiantes 7 PM CST
Independiente del Valle ... ml +114 3 units (this is going to be tough)
Ind del Valle o/2 -108
Adding:
Ind del Valle o/2.5 (+162)
Ind del Valle o/2 (-104) 2 units
Independiente del Valle's team is young . . . they are going to play reckless at altitude . . . with fresh legs . . . meanwhile, Estudiantes intends to score an away goal this evening . . . there will be no bus-parking/bunkering. Ind del VAlle spent time over the last couple of months trying to set up its offensive unit in anticipation of tonight's match - knowing that there will be no victory back in Argentina for the reverse . . . tonight is the night . . .
FEB 5 COPA LIBERTADORES WAGERS (writeups/rationale to be supplemented)
Palestino v. Nacional (Uru) 4:45 PM CST
Palestino o/2,25 (+108) 3 units
Palestino o/2 (-132) 2 units
Independiente del Valle v. Estudiantes 7 PM CST
Independiente del Valle ... ml +114 3 units (this is going to be tough)
Ind del Valle o/2 -108
Ind del Valle o/2.5 (+162)
Ind del Valle o/2 (-104) 2 units
Random So. American Wagers
Palmeiras v. Ponte Preta 3:30 PM CST
Palmeiras -,75 -115
Friburguense v. Macae 3:30 PM CST
Friburg's coach:
"We played a good game against Fluminense. But the important thing is to score. And we have to know that. Now we have a game to go with different circumstances. We will play at home and we need the result. And the Fluminense game gave us the confidence to find a result. I think our team has evolved a lot and can still evolve. We are still in championship beginning. We can not feel pressured to have lost to Fluminense, it is theoretically the trend is that it also win the teams that are competing with us . We will play at home, knowing we need the result, but I see no pressure because the last game. "
Friburg o/2.5 (+109)
Disbarred
0
FEB 5 COPA LIBERTADORES WAGERS (writeups/rationale to be supplemented)
Palestino v. Nacional (Uru) 4:45 PM CST
Palestino o/2,25 (+108) 3 units
Palestino o/2 (-132) 2 units
Independiente del Valle v. Estudiantes 7 PM CST
Independiente del Valle ... ml +114 3 units (this is going to be tough)
Ind del Valle o/2 -108
Ind del Valle o/2.5 (+162)
Ind del Valle o/2 (-104) 2 units
Random So. American Wagers
Palmeiras v. Ponte Preta 3:30 PM CST
Palmeiras -,75 -115
Friburguense v. Macae 3:30 PM CST
Friburg's coach:
"We played a good game against Fluminense. But the important thing is to score. And we have to know that. Now we have a game to go with different circumstances. We will play at home and we need the result. And the Fluminense game gave us the confidence to find a result. I think our team has evolved a lot and can still evolve. We are still in championship beginning. We can not feel pressured to have lost to Fluminense, it is theoretically the trend is that it also win the teams that are competing with us . We will play at home, knowing we need the result, but I see no pressure because the last game. "
I wanted to say a big thank you for all your sharing of insights with this current Copa Liberatordes and the past as well. Even after all these months since I stop posting, there are still a good number of you that I look into as I do my capping daily. I still do my own capping daily and when I'm finished I check in to see if I missed anything and if you might be on the same side and thought process (drunk or not ....ha).
You are respected and greatly appreciated by me and I'm sure by most. Thanks again.....
INVESTINSPORTS
0
Dis.........
I wanted to say a big thank you for all your sharing of insights with this current Copa Liberatordes and the past as well. Even after all these months since I stop posting, there are still a good number of you that I look into as I do my capping daily. I still do my own capping daily and when I'm finished I check in to see if I missed anything and if you might be on the same side and thought process (drunk or not ....ha).
You are respected and greatly appreciated by me and I'm sure by most. Thanks again.....
Thank you, Invest! Trust me - the feelings are reciprocal and I do sincerely miss your awesome posts as well. I hope that you are doing well both against the House as well as in your personal life!! Keep on winning!!!!
Over the past several months, I've lost a lot of focus and have been quite distracted. I'm trying really hard to change that and to sweep the fog out of my mind. I'm excited because the start of Copa just "kinda feels right" as a benchmark for "starting over."
We've lost a lot of good people lately on this forum - including you - and it makes me sad. This oft-cited quote sums it up:
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers. For he today that sheds his blood with me shall be my brother; be never so vile. This day shall gentle his condition. And gentlemen in England now abed shall think themselves accursed they were not here, and hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks that fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day."
I consider you and all the other great folks on this forum - past and present - to be brothers. (and happy if she is still around).
Disbarred
0
Thank you, Invest! Trust me - the feelings are reciprocal and I do sincerely miss your awesome posts as well. I hope that you are doing well both against the House as well as in your personal life!! Keep on winning!!!!
Over the past several months, I've lost a lot of focus and have been quite distracted. I'm trying really hard to change that and to sweep the fog out of my mind. I'm excited because the start of Copa just "kinda feels right" as a benchmark for "starting over."
We've lost a lot of good people lately on this forum - including you - and it makes me sad. This oft-cited quote sums it up:
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers. For he today that sheds his blood with me shall be my brother; be never so vile. This day shall gentle his condition. And gentlemen in England now abed shall think themselves accursed they were not here, and hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks that fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day."
I consider you and all the other great folks on this forum - past and present - to be brothers. (and happy if she is still around).
Both teams likely to play with three strikers up front . . . for Uruguay, experienced players Fernandez, Alonso and de Pena. Everyone is eyeing the 30K US bonus which is given to the leading goal scorer for the tourney.
Goals. Baby. Goals.
Disbarred
0
Re Palestine v. Nacional . . .
Both teams likely to play with three strikers up front . . . for Uruguay, experienced players Fernandez, Alonso and de Pena. Everyone is eyeing the 30K US bonus which is given to the leading goal scorer for the tourney.
Dissss, I echo the thoughts of Investinsports. Well said
I like your reasoning on the Ind de Valle Over. I was leaning to Estudiantes at that juicy price, but either way, I'm tailing the over with you. Palestino Over 2.5 has been money for a long time. I'm going stick with that gravy train as well. Just got in, but I'll be looking into the rest of your card. Always appreciate the work you put in. Thanks for yesterday's card as well.......
" First we win.......Then we go Disco "
0
Dissss, I echo the thoughts of Investinsports. Well said
I like your reasoning on the Ind de Valle Over. I was leaning to Estudiantes at that juicy price, but either way, I'm tailing the over with you. Palestino Over 2.5 has been money for a long time. I'm going stick with that gravy train as well. Just got in, but I'll be looking into the rest of your card. Always appreciate the work you put in. Thanks for yesterday's card as well.......
Thanks guys!! Thanks Franz!!! I just put some thoughts down in your thread re Estudiantes . . . historically . . . home teams have won 15 out of 18 first leg first round matches in Copa . . . the logic of course is that these home teams (a) know how HUGE copa is (the $$$ for advancing through the tiers) and (b) as a matter of course devote so much to the first home game in the first round . . . nothing is left on the field . . . there is little reason to keep any powder dry . . . because to lose at home in the first game sounds the deathknell . . . the away side often seems content to (a) minimize the damage, content to play the reverse at home and (b) as a result, often concedes to the reckless aggressive home side . . .
general observations (not always the case - but still generally correct)
winning the first game of the first round in copa seems to be a function of (a) skill and (b) psychology . . . clearly a home team without skill will typically lose their home games and no degree of positive psychology is going to change that . . . however, assuming some degree of parity in skill, psychology or mental preparedness or whatever you want to call it seems to apply as follows:
The home sides can't afford to lose . . . so their minds think that way re strategy. . . the away side "knows" that even if they do lose, the away side has a second bite at the apple. . . so they may play down a bit (they know this subconsciously - Im not suggesting that they make a conscious decision to downplay the game) . . .certainly not as reckless or focused as the home side
The home side tonight knows (consciously and subconsciously) that if they lose tonight, advancing through an away win is highly unlikely... therefore, throw EVERYTHING into the first game . . . EVERYTHING . . .
These two competing mindsets seem to explain the 15-3 home first leg win rate, imo
Disbarred
0
Thanks guys!! Thanks Franz!!! I just put some thoughts down in your thread re Estudiantes . . . historically . . . home teams have won 15 out of 18 first leg first round matches in Copa . . . the logic of course is that these home teams (a) know how HUGE copa is (the $$$ for advancing through the tiers) and (b) as a matter of course devote so much to the first home game in the first round . . . nothing is left on the field . . . there is little reason to keep any powder dry . . . because to lose at home in the first game sounds the deathknell . . . the away side often seems content to (a) minimize the damage, content to play the reverse at home and (b) as a result, often concedes to the reckless aggressive home side . . .
general observations (not always the case - but still generally correct)
winning the first game of the first round in copa seems to be a function of (a) skill and (b) psychology . . . clearly a home team without skill will typically lose their home games and no degree of positive psychology is going to change that . . . however, assuming some degree of parity in skill, psychology or mental preparedness or whatever you want to call it seems to apply as follows:
The home sides can't afford to lose . . . so their minds think that way re strategy. . . the away side "knows" that even if they do lose, the away side has a second bite at the apple. . . so they may play down a bit (they know this subconsciously - Im not suggesting that they make a conscious decision to downplay the game) . . .certainly not as reckless or focused as the home side
The home side tonight knows (consciously and subconsciously) that if they lose tonight, advancing through an away win is highly unlikely... therefore, throw EVERYTHING into the first game . . . EVERYTHING . . .
These two competing mindsets seem to explain the 15-3 home first leg win rate, imo
Ind de Valle certainly has some things going for it if Estudiantes presents this sort of gameplan. . . youth . . . endurance . . . familiarity with the conditions . . . Ferreira playing for them up front . . . plenty of time to prepare a game plan . . .
If Estudiantes really is in search of that away goal, this one has to go over. I think it goes over regardless . . .
Disbarred
0
Agreed, Why . . .Agreed.
Ind de Valle certainly has some things going for it if Estudiantes presents this sort of gameplan. . . youth . . . endurance . . . familiarity with the conditions . . . Ferreira playing for them up front . . . plenty of time to prepare a game plan . . .
If Estudiantes really is in search of that away goal, this one has to go over. I think it goes over regardless . . .
I'm also hoping that Estudiantes underestimates Ind de Valle and comes out a bit flat footed . . . it wouldn't be hard for a big fish like Estudiantes to underestimate a lowly ecuadoran side . . . happened last night re a lowly Venezuelan side . . .
Disbarred
0
I'm also hoping that Estudiantes underestimates Ind de Valle and comes out a bit flat footed . . . it wouldn't be hard for a big fish like Estudiantes to underestimate a lowly ecuadoran side . . . happened last night re a lowly Venezuelan side . . .
Followed you on tachira and Corinthians last night, thanks for the great insight. Rolling on these overs with you tonight as well. 14-2! Keep up the good work sir!
0
Followed you on tachira and Corinthians last night, thanks for the great insight. Rolling on these overs with you tonight as well. 14-2! Keep up the good work sir!
Uruguay is going for it . . . they aren't going to sit back and take it like Becky - Tommy's girlfriend -- did when those Gatlin boys came a callin' in kenny rogers' Coward of the County
Disbarred
0
Uruguay is going for it . . . they aren't going to sit back and take it like Becky - Tommy's girlfriend -- did when those Gatlin boys came a callin' in kenny rogers' Coward of the County
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
)
Well said
Hot Forum Topics
