Fri-Sun plays (Serie A, Sandwiches, + others).........

late start, will just toss all this up here.  somewhat of a big card this wknd and a little nervous with that trend this year.  

Serie A: 

any other normal year and Saturday would be a Festive Day - Family,Food,Friends, & Futbol: All the Top 6 clubs play one right after another, and that big Derby. but with the uptick in cases,  everyone isnt thrilled to participate in gatherings and the stadiums likewise for the most part will look empty. so instead, the anticipations seems much less. welcome to the new "normal". Im guessing the Holidays will be a little depressing ehhh?

Inter/Milan - Derby della Madonnina (Milano Derby). and it's an early season biggie, and always a crazy week in Milan. there were talks of this even being postponed due to Covid. Inter unbeaten in 8 straight H2H's, but Im not sure about these prices. Conte been raising a stink all week at Waffles using Luk and several others whom were out on Intl duties. Luk played on Wed, Eriksen too, not sure when Laut came back from Bolivia. Inter only had one practice to prep. and they took a big hit from Covid tests, i think theres 6 in quarantine now. Milan on the other side get Zlat back for this one tho have quite a few returning from Intl duties as well. and they have yet to concede a goal. line has dropped since opening but I still dont think Piolis side should be in the 200s. an empty San Siro for this?
Milan pick at +120, and toss some on the outrights @+223

Crotone/Juve - this is already a Sandwich spot. so im fading anyways. but Juventus BLOWS in these spots regardless - that first round following Intl breaks - it takes us FOREVER to get it in gear. maybe Andrea can change that around for us this year; but in an interview recently with media even he gave mention as to how hard it is "mentally" to play these kind of rounds.
in any case: the last 3 years heres Juves results:
Juventus 3-0 Chievo (W)
Juventus 1-2 Lazio (L)
Sampdoria 3-2 Juventus (L)
Juventus 2-1 Sass (W)
Juventus 1-1 Genoa
Juventus 2-0 SPAL
Fiorentina 0-0 Juventus
Juventus 2-1 Bologna (W)
Atalanta 1-3 Juventus - go figure.
and with Christian out, Dybala still not fully fit, Bonucci & Giorgio logged in the full 90 a few days ago, and several others coming back into town (only half the team left the facility which we are now under investigation for). stroke of luck to get a "newbie" in this spot but theres still decent value - on paper - to take the +HC.

Napoli/Atalanta - sandwich #2. but also adding another play here. a big match for my futures as well. Napoli in a real nasty mood after the court decision granting Juve that 3-0 forfeit a few days ago. Insigne is out but their entire team practically stayed home.Bergamo boys have banged in 4+ in each of their first 3 matches, and as put in thy futures, they are the deepest squad in Serie A; even when their Colombian duo isnt around they still find the net. but not sure about that here. home teams in this meeting has won just once in past 6 matches and theres been less than 4 in all but one. and with Insigne ruled out & 2 weeks to prep I just KNOW Gatt is/has focused on the defensive side of it; hes been pretty predictable vs the Top of Serie A. taking a small shot at this because if Gatt thinks having Oshimen/Dries is good enough to run with Atalanta then this will go up in flames. Napoli/Atalanta under 3.5 @-120

Sampdoria/Lazio - Sandwich #3. Lazio unbeaten in past 8 H2H's (won 7 of them). but without Immobile and Lazzari. good spot fo an upset here.

Sunday:
Bologna/Sassuolo - thy largest future, by far, is for Sass to finish above Parma/Bologna,; and this is a regional derby too. so its an important one for me. Bolognas record-breaking streak still intact, just didnt hit the play last time. conceded in 38 straight. jumping right back on this horse/donkey as has hit in 5 straight meetings and Sass will be amongst the leaders in Serie A total goals. btts + over 2.5 @-128

Spezia/Fior - not sure if I get this line. before break, Spezia looked dead-set ready to lead Serie A in conceded goals this year; their backline is pretty poor. Viola on the other side blew an 80th minute lead to lose to Inter and then followed that up losing at home to an out of sorts Samp. then things got even worse over break when they lost their best player (Chiesa) to Juve - which is the only thing everyone is talking about down there. and when your best player is now 37-year old Ribery, this might become a long season. PASS.

Torino/Cagliari - PASS

(time to get the melon checked?? lets do a 'runner' here )
Udinese/Parma - Udine hasnt even scored yet, Parma (going back to last year) has found back of net in 16 of their past 17 roadies. so Udine opens as favs and the 2.5 is juiced a little. both affected by Covid but 4 straight cleansheets to open a season with? ehhhh. Im banking on the theory the break did Udine some good and they get to play an opponent which theres been high scores against on this pitch (25 total in past 6 H2H's here; 4,3,6,4,4,4. btts @-120, btts + over 2.5 @+128, over 3.5 @+235 pass the Rolaids please.

Roma/Benevento - if not for having such a large amount risked this wknd Id probably put this one into "hammer" category. Tottis father, Enzo, passed away this past week; beaten by Covid. and the funeral didnt prevent many from lining the streets. something which should not be underestimated. not only was he quietly one of the biggest supporters of that club, his son (whom I cant stand) is a Legend down there. and 'daddy' was loved/respected practically everywhere. (come to think of it, "daddy" was also 'well-connected' too). and though some of the players might be new to the club and the 'younger generation', believe me, one of the first things they get taught is how much he meant to to club. this is a bad spot for Benevento - or for anyone else for that matter. and unlike my Juventus whom tend to put their skirts on an wait till we fall behind; Roma historically are never kind hosts to any promoted newbies of Serie A; to give an idea, the past 2 years theyre 6-0-0 with a 19-3 goal difference. im sensing one of those 'good and proper' MOTIVATED thumpings Sunday night. we'll see how it goes. Roma -1.5 @-105
If Dzeko is in there, will take the goal scoring prop.

Serie B:
Brescia/Lecce over 2.5 @+104 (Friday)
Frosinone to win @-120

Serie C:
Juventus(U23)/AlbinoLeffe over 2.5 @+120

EPL: aside from the big boy fades the only info given:
Palace/Brighton (tailing) - friend says Palace are brutal after Intl layoffs, scored just 1 goal in the 6 games following Nations League cr*p past few years. but since Brightons promotion, the btts has hit in 5 of 7 meetings. should see plenty of chances in this one, hope they can convert. btts @-105

Sandwiches:  put these in last week, actually already have the entire schedule ready, just need to wait for lines. 

very concerned Covid has messed this up. and im rather nervous this year, buddies telling me to back out of it. reasons being: one of the biggest variables/advantages are no longer there: fan support. though keep this separate from normal record, kind of fortunate to reel off that 2-week run which provided that cushion. we'll see how this goes, an 0-fer and would still be on + side for the year but trying not to think like that.

last year 47-160/+28 units

probably the most uncomfortable feeling of any season since started this a few centuries ago it seems.  practically every Power 5 behemoth has dropped points (early part of seasons have historically been a strong/fast starts for those clubs and tend to begin dropping points when schedules get crammed. this year theyre flopping all over the place which is pretty much the LAST thing I wanted to see.
again, a huge factor of these spots have been the distinct home advantage the smaller clubs. thats all shot to smithers due to Covid
Onwards we go. 

Round 1: those Rounds right after Intl break have been cash-cow spots: City, Juve, Munich, Real & Pool ALL dropped pts in this spot last year. Big boy clubs with rosters chock-full-O Intl stars all fly out of the country and 'go home', come back, have a practice, and head straight to the road domestically? nasty spot. we'll see what happens this time around. bloody huge card too.  some go off on friday. 

Standard/Brugge +250, +230
Vynnky/Kiev +1300, +550, +1.5 @+123
Crotone/Juventus 1100, 550, +1.5 @+112
Granada/Sevilla +275, +260
Dijon/Rennes +400, +280
Sampdoria/Lazio +300, +275
Hoffenheim/Dortmund +370, +340
Getafe/Barcelona +385, +275
Kisvardia/Ferencvaros +370, +280
Nimes/PSG +1150, +585, +1.5 @-105
Newcastle/ManU +415, +335
Augsburg/Leipzig +470, +370
Trabzonsburg/Istanbul to win @+125
St. Polten/Salzburg (cup match) +950, +650
Bielfeld/Bayern +1275, +730, +1.5 @+145
Celta/Atletico +450, +275
Sporting/Porto +224, +240
Everton/Liverpool (derby) +300, +340
Napoli/Atalanta +170, +290

Copa Lib: several leagues havent even begun their seasons. for some of these clubs participating in Lib its their only matches thus far. and quite a few have had their league games prior to the midweek Lib postponed. some of lines arent up yet

Coritoba/Santos +230, +220 (sat)
Barcelona/Delfin (sat)
Atletico/Paranense to win @+125(sat)
Binacional/Cristal -1.5 @+130
Trujillanos/Estudiantes
Nacional/Fenix
Cienciano/Alianza +170, +250   cazzo!!!... up 2-0, abandoned?? 
Pereira/Junior +230, +215
Sol De America/Guarani +170, +240
Fortazela/Palmeiras +220, +235
Curico/Catolica +355, +315
Nacional/America to win @-110
Guairena/Libertad
Pasto/Medellon to win @+105

Sao Paulo/Gremio draw @+220

have a great weekend and GL to all    

Good shit Spec. Win or lose, you are as hard working and plugged-in and honest as anyone on here.  

BigD  ehhh.  appreciate it & tks fer stopping by.  being tuned-in helps and have done well thus far but the results still have to follow. a little uncomfy with the Sandwich stuff this year, as expained above, especially after a few buddies backed off them.  but no matter what, a happy/fun wknd regardless. 

on a side note: caught the last half hour of PSG.  hit the first match, but those plays got toasted the second that red appeared in the 12th.  but Mbappe (laughing), a great great talent youll agree. no argument there.  but if he isnt one of the biggest stat-padders in europe..... (voice trailing)  up 2-0, up a man, 80th minute. just kill the game, right?.  NOPE.   looks over "hmmm... im getting subbed-out?"     lets get another before hitting the showers & flies 100mph down the side. he learned that from his teammate,  thats "Flopper Mentality" (Flopperisms).

have a good wknd 

I can't wait for the stands to be full again, Spec. Just not the same. Good luck on these sandwiches, with all due respect, the only one I'm hoping doesn't hit is Everton outright as I booked some action at work with a loud mouth 

Riding with you in serie a, let's get this money my friend 

BOL Spec as always.

Tailed on the Brescia/Lecce Over. Miracle cover at the end for the W. 

estoy agradecido con tus picks espec

Sassuolo scoring machine. What a game!!!

Howdy spec! Great picks as always. Quite a few of your sandwich spot picks hit! Question for you about roma vs benevento...you think BTTS is worth a look? 

Unreal Mr. Spec. Thank you

Thank you very much as always sir spec

Nice job buddy

Looking forward to CL 

BigD, well.... that worked out OK ehhh??
doc tks, appreciate it. those just continue to be really nasty spots (another one coming up next month. will be interesting to see if clubs release players). nice call with Everton

WCI, I WANT that too. but a part of me thinks its just asking for a heap of trouble. i honestly dont know whats going on with 'Pool this year, been out of the loop with EPL thus far. but simply looking at the results, its safe to say the focus probably isnt there yet. why??? is the money-question.

Alfha
Slater Sass is very underrated. sure, havent beaten anybody yet but theyre in 2nd place yet nobody is mentioning them.

Laffy, And appreciate it. tks fer stopping by.
Striker, tks.

yoro, I am quite suprised at some of those UCL lines; and books dont "scr*w up" with these, so right away, I guess I better start checking the d*mn lineups; perhaps ill get a thread up early and people can chime in. might save self some time as well. but admittedly been peeking more at Conmebol, final round of groups down there. some really nice spots.

BANG!!!! and for thy efforts, a proud new owner of a case of Italys finest courtesy of buddies.   17-2 on sides. just one of those wknds (situational) where everything fell into place. it is extremely rare.... for all Top 4 clubs to drop pts in same wknd. extremely rare.

Milan pick at +120, outrights @+223 (W, W)
Napoli/Atalanta under 3.5 @-120 (L)
Bologna/Sassuolo btts + over 2.5 @-128 (W)
Udinese/Parma btts @-120, btts + over 2.5 @+128, over 3.5 @+235 (W,W,W)
Roma -1.5 @-105 (W)

and tho keep sandwiches separately, did put writeups for each; threw some more on Samp as an individual play once all of Lazios missings were announced.
Crotone/Juventus +1100, 550, +1.5 @+112 (L, W, W)
Sampdoria/Lazio +300, +275 (W, L)
Napoli/Atalanta +170, +290 (W, L)

Brescia/Lecce over 2.5 @+104 (W)
Juventus(U23)/AlbinoLeffe over 2.5 @+120 (L)
Palace/Brighton btts @-105 (W)
Frosinone to win @-120 (W)

unposted:
Torino/Cagliari over 1.5 @+104 (2nd half-trend) (W)
Crotone to score first goal @+380 (W) our(Juves) "skirts"."skirts"."skirts"
Dzeko to score anytime @-130 (W) (mentioned above)
Slovaika: Zilina to win @+104 (W)

Partizan/Crvena draw @+180 (W) forgot to give mention of the Eternal Derby. the 'Mother-Of-All' Derby's in europe (perhaps world too). #1 in my mind, I just havent figured out under WHICH category.

Sandwiches:

Round 1:

Standard/Brugge +250, +230 (L, W)
Vynnky/Kiev +1300, +550, +1.5 @+123 (L, L,L)
Crotone/Juventus 1100, 550, +1.5 @+112 (L, W, W)
Granada/Sevilla +275, +260 (W, L)
Dijon/Rennes +400, +280 (L, W)
Sampdoria/Lazio +300, +275 (W, L)
Hoffenheim/Dortmund +370, +340 (L, L)
Getafe/Barcelona +385, +275 (W, L)
Kisvardia/Ferencvaros +370, +280 (L, L)
Nimes/PSG +1150, +585 (L, L)
Newcastle/ManU +415, +335 (L, L)
Augsburg/Leipzig +470, +370 (L, L)
Trabzonsburg/Istanbul to win @+125 (L)
St. Polten/Salzburg (cup match) +950, +650 (L, L)
Bielfeld/Bayern +1275, +730, +1.5 @+145 (L, L, L)
Celta/Atletico +450, +275 (L, L)
Sporting/Porto +224, +240 (L, W)
Everton/Liverpool (derby) +300, +340 (L, W)
Napoli/Atalanta +170, +290 (W, L)

up a few to start the year with, I'll take it considering didnt really know what the **** to expect. over half dropped pts domestically, just no signature big wins tho some came close

Conmebol

Coritoba/Santos +230, +220 (L,L)
Barcelona/Delfin -1 @-110 (P)
Atletico/Paranense to win @+125 (L)
Binacional/Cristal -1.5 @+130 (W)
Trujillanos/Estudiantes +200, +235 (L,W)
Cienciano/Alianza +170, +250 (W, L)
Pereira/Junior +230, +215 (L,L)
Sol De America/Guarani +170, +240 (W, L)
Fortazela/Palmeiras +220, +235 (W,L)
Independiente/Quito +450, +330 (W,L)
Nacional/America to win @-110 (L)
Guairena/Libertad +340, +250 (L, L)
Penarol/River +240, +235 (W, L)
Pasto/Medellon to win @+105 (W)
Sao Paulo/Gremio draw @+220 (W)

nice tidy little profit there.  

on to a new week.   

nice job spec, Milan gave me a pretty good payout, hammered them pretty good on the ML. this Milan run post lockdown has been quite profitable for me. Roma/Bene went with the over. Think Juve has a real nasty spot against Dynamo Kiev. Juve has looked very vulnerable on the flanks, gonna think Tsygankov will feast. Kiev ML is in play for me.

great calls again

come on, don't forget to post the essences,not a drop

elpr,  Andrea only has TWO forwards on the roster making the trip (and one of them isnt 100%) 

villa  ehhh. try to keep an even head about it. but yeah, quite a few big lines up there which came through.

tks fer stopping by fellas. 

Hey Spec any thoughts on Genoa/Verona today?

Lights out.  Past misunderstadings aside, your write ups are a must read and I would be remiss if didn't send a "thank you" across.  From one who's slowly learning to understand the nuances of the game, pricing, etc (and put more of my roll in play on the sport), these threads are a gift. Thx