Friday Futbol 11/12

Question

France Ligue 2Clermont Foot over 2  -127  2 units&#xD;&#xA;Holland 2Zwolle over 3.5  -114&#xD;&#xA;Germany 2Aue pick &#x2B;135   EVERY stat points to an AUE victory...what am I missing?  ML is &#x2B;241

bakemcbride · Answer

France Ligue 2Clermont Foot over 2  -127  2 units&#xD;&#xA;Holland 2Zwolle over 3.5  -114&#xD;&#xA;Germany 2Aue pick &#x2B;135   EVERY stat points to an AUE victory...what am I missing?  ML is &#x2B;241

ejplace · Answer

Looking at Aue now and cant see one. I am planning on going the same. My ML is &#x2B;195 but I&#x27;m gonna hedge w/ the draw at &#x2B;225 for the &#x2B;0.5 just to be sure something isnt up. Love it though.

Barbarossa · Answer

BOL  Bake

bakemcbride · Answer

ej and barb  Aue needed 84 minutes (at home) to squeak out a 1-0 win last week against Fortuna Dusseldorf (same points standings as Karlsruhe) in what almost was a Covers Soccer Forum bloodbath....

bakemcbride · Answer

The Greek has the NTL price for Aue at -143

ryaznz · Answer

WOW  bakemcbride you think it might be a tricky line?? just like parma last night?

sharpster_XX · Answer

you are right they should win outright, something weird either books are wrong or they know something we don&#x27;t.

raffchfd · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;my book has the NTL at &#x2B;125

nakadinhi · Answer

BOL today Bake

tdogsSC · Answer

GL BAker

fishsticks · Answer

BOL Bake

raffchfd · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by raffchfd] &#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;my book has the NTL at &#x2B;125 &#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA;good luck on your plays bake

jerzey_devil · Answer

Like the picks Bake, Good Luck bud..

Disbarred · Answer

BOL Bake - go get &#x27;em, man!

bakemcbride · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by raffchfd] &#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;my book has the NTL at &#x2B;125 &#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA;Are you sure your book didnt have the "pickem" price at &#x2B;125 similar to mine...?&#xD;&#xA;The NTL or &#x2B;.5 line was -143 and is currently back to a pickem at the Greek at &#x2B;115&#xD;&#xA;The ML for AUE has moved from &#x2B;241 to &#x2B;213, so others are noticing this to.&#xD;&#xA;I wish lutz could comment to tell us if anything is in the local papers about AUE fielding a B team or other personnel issues.

bakemcbride · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;Not sure the books would need to put a tricky line out on a German 2 match, and the Parma line looked about right.  Many of us thought Samps were the better team and shouldnt have been around &#x2B;200, but as we found out it is difficult to score on Parma at home.

bakemcbride · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;sharp, &#xD;&#xA;1) either the books are wrong, or&#xD;&#xA;2) they know something we dont....&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;ummmm, safe bet is they know something we dont...&#xD;&#xA;This is too much of a talent gap to get the line wong.

bakemcbride · Answer

dis&#xD;&#xA;jerzey&#xD;&#xA;raffchfd&#xD;&#xA;fishsticks&#xD;&#xA;tdoooogs&#xD;&#xA;naka

raffchfd · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by bakemcbride] &#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;Are you sure your book didnt have the "pickem" price at &#x2B;125 similar to mine...?&#xD;&#xA;The NTL or &#x2B;.5 line was -143 and is currently back to a pickem at the Greek at &#x2B;115&#xD;&#xA;The ML for AUE has moved from &#x2B;241 to &#x2B;213, so others are noticing this to.&#xD;&#xA;I wish lutz could comment to tell us if anything is in the local papers about AUE fielding a B team or other personnel issues.&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA;yea, it was for a pickem..i got it mixed up

bakemcbride · Answer

raff, last year when p_66 was posting his plays, many were tailing his NTL plays, not realizing most of the tailers could only get PICKEM lines (because he was making teams who were -105 or so on the ML an NTL by hedging the draw....

what wasnt apparent to people was when you try to do that, you make the play cost around -350 to -400

bakemcbride · Answer

let me clarify, when you have a Team that is -105 ML and &#x2B;225 on the draw, to make them an NTL or &#x2B;.5 means you are risking about -400 to win 1 unit...sucks the value right out of it (in that instance).

lutz · Answer

Good luck, bake!

sharpster_XX · Answer

I think p made a loss most of his plays were NTL at 300 &#x2B; I tailed him one day and made a loss yet he had a winning %

sharpster_XX · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by bakemcbride]  &#xD;&#xA;sharp, &#xD;&#xA;1) either the books are wrong, or&#xD;&#xA;2) they know something we dont....&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;ummmm, safe bet is they know something we dont...&#xD;&#xA;This is too much of a talent gap to get the line wong.  [/Quote]well they do get it wrong quite a lot problem is they juice eveything and still win.

sharpster_XX · Answer

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