Friday Soccer play and write-up

2012-13 196-169 +53.19 units
2013-14 206.5-191 +21.50 units

Friday play: La Liga; 3:00 PM EST

Granada v Valladolid over 2.25 +102 2 units

It’s been a bad couple weeks on the pitch so tail, fade or pass accordingly. Still in the positive on the year so that’s a good thing.  Let’s see if we can get another little roll going.

First we’ll start with some statistical information for this match.  Granada has scored 8 and conceded 13 in their 9 home games this season with those games averaging 2.33 total goals per game but most of those low scoring games were at the start of the season. I will get into recent home form later.  The visitors come in with 10 goals scored and 18 conceded in their 9 road games for a per game average of 3.11 total goals per road game.

Granada is tied for 3rd worst in the league in terms of most goals allowed on home soil while Valladolid is tied for 4th worst in terms of away goals conceded so given the home/away defensive records, both teams should find some opportunity in front of goal.

The visitors are tied for the final relegation spot in the league at 16 points while Granada, while in 13th place, is not too far away from the drop zone at 20 points so both teams should be motivated for the full 3 points here as a draw really doesn’t help them get out of the log jam at the bottom of the table.  Given the desire for both teams to want to win this match, we should see an attack minded game with plenty of chances and as mentioned, given the two sides home/away defensive record, we should see some goals as well.

Valladolid has conceded 2 or more goals in 11 of their 20 matches played this season which should give Granada some confidence.  5 of Valladolid’s last 6 away games on the domestic font have seen 3 or more goals with 4 of those 5 games combining for 4 or more goals.  They are 7-2 “over” 2.5 goals in their 9 road games this season.  They are 9-3 over 2.5 goals in their last 12 games overall in the league. 

They should take solace in the fact that their opponents, Granada have conceded 2 goals in 4 of their last 5 home games and has a significant injury list to deal with so they should look to take advantage of that and attack the hosts.  Dating back to last season, Valladolid have seen the over go 9-3 in their last 12 away games (7-3 over last 10 away).

As for the home side, I’ve already noted they have conceded 2 goals in 4 of their last 5 home games which has resulted in overs.  After starting the season healthy they went on a 5-0 under run at home but coinciding with a plague of injury problems, they have seen the over 2.5 go 4-0 in their last 3 home games.  With only 3 wins in 9 home games they have to figure they have a good shot at getting their 4th home win against a defensively weak Valladolid which again lends itself to my thoughts about an attack minded game. 

Granada are 6-2 “over” 2.5 goals in their last 8 league games overall so as you can see we have two teams that are 13-4 over the total in their last 17 combined games.

As for their recent performances against teams near the bottom of the table, Granada is 5-1 “over” the total in their last 6 games when hosting clubs in the bottom 6 of the table and their midfielder Piti has called this game a “final” describing their intent entering this match. Upon hearing this, Valladolid’s manager fired back that his team will also treat this game as a final and seek the win and the desperately needed 3 points. 

This total is low because of the offensive records of both teams of late, more so the hosts however, given the defensive frailties on both teams and the fact that they are both going to desperately seek the full 3 points, I expect an open, attack minded match with plenty of chances to hit the back of the net.  It will come down to whether or not the teams can finish their chances.  To back this up I considered that Valladolid concedes 17.9 shots per game on the road, among the worst in La Liga.  Granada is conceding an average of 14 goal attempts per game

My spreadsheets give me a total handicap for this game of 3.21 implying we see at least 3 goals with the final results pretty much all over the place (draw, home win, away win) so I will stay off the side and go for goals in this match.

I feel comfortable recommending the over 2.25 because of the fallback of half our stake being refunded should the game stall at 2 goals. I leave it up to you to decide whether or not to play the 2.5 or whether or not to tail , fade or pass.