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    All Forums | Soccer

    Fri/Sat plays..... Sandwiches + Carrots on steroids......

    specimen24
    Blowoutfarts
    LooseNotLose
    rewinds2k
    jkatakoon
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    Views: 1719
    Posts: 17
     
    specimen24
    specimen24
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    Posts: 6175
    Posted: Dec. 1, 2017 - 10:32 AM ET #1

    Looking forward to today:
    1) WC draw - will possibly make a few quick "future" plays depending on the Group pairings
    2) then earth stops rotating for a few hours (Napoli-Juve)
    3) Sandwiches, some beauts this wknd. 
    4) and yes, my beloved, addicted, "mental" Friday FUN-parlay.

    Sandwiches & Carrots Round 6: got all these in yesterday. wont have much time today. I have the 'luxury' of losing all these plays and still coming out with a profit this year. but Round 6 tends to fare very well; with 3 angles heavily leaned in my favor: 
    1) for some of these squads prospect of a major windfall if they can advance. i cannot stress this enuff.  not guarantee-ing anything, and this angle can just as easily blow up in my face.  however, history disctates and has proven it doesnt.  aside from a massive injury list, you wont find a better opportunity to fade "heavies" this year. 
    2) 3rd place Europa spots. lot of those 'smaller' clubs really DO want to remain involved in Europe
    3) securing 1st place. you had better believe this is important for some of those 1st/2nd place teams.  1st place = getting the 2nd leg at home in knockouts. it doesnt guarantee anything but any coach worth his salary knows the importance of this. and its a HC responsibility to put his club in the best possible situation in increase their chances of succeeding.  hence, do NOT write off those clubs whom already qualified. the 6th game is STILL frickin important for some.

    there are some teams whom couldnt give a darn about their domestic games this weekend.  

    Just to sample, so ya dont think im talking out of side of mouth: 
    last years 6th Round record was 6 wins, 12 losses, 8 draws (out . 2 years ago 6 wins, 13 losses, 5 draws.    and I dont think I need to xplain the payouts with some of those lines. 

    ManU, Barca, ManC, Besitkas, Tott all are PASS this weekend. regardless of whatever happens midweek, they will clinch first. many times clubs will put their best players forward for the league and REST during the CL in those scenarios.  I dont have to the time to read each squad individually to determine.

    at the other end, Monaco, Feye, Olympiak.,Maribor, Qarabag are PASS. all totally eliminated from europe. there are some whom think "pride" can motivate for 6th round, which in some cases could be true, but again, i dont really have the time to super-analyze a teams psyche in leagues I might not be all too familiar with.

    *** Napoli/Juve - NO PLAY.  both involved ****

    letting it rip, one last time.... till the knockouts commence. 

    Lausanne/Basel +650, +309
    BHA/'Pool +650, +350
    Tula/Spartak +460, +280 (Friday)
    Hoff/Leipzig +220, +280
    Watford/Tott +400, +325 
    Strasborg/PSG +1450, +750 +1.5 @+165
    Lokeren/Ander +600, +325
    Lever/Dort +140 (hoping to squeeze one last play out of the Poster Child whom are now 1-2D-7 the past 3 yers in this spot)


    Home Teams: tho' these are ALL home matches, which doesnt bode well in earlier rounds.
    CSKA/Tosno +800, +350 (Friday)
    Roma/SPAL +1500, +670 +1.5 @+125 (Friday)
    Atletico/Sociedad +650, +320
    Sporting/Belen +1400, +690 +1.5 @+135 (Friday)
    Sevilla/Deport +660, +400
    Shakhtar/Veres +1525, +550 +1.5 @+120
    Porto/Benefica +420, +250 (Friday)
    APOEL/Ermis +900, +475
    Celtic/Mother +1300, +750 +1.5 @+165
    Munich/Hannover +1.5 @+190
    Chelsea/Newcastle +1400, +550, +1.5 @+114


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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Looking forward to today:
    1) WC draw - will possibly make a few quick "future" plays depending on the Group pairings
    2) then earth stops rotating for a few hours (Napoli-Juve)
    3) Sandwiches, some beauts this wknd. 
    4) and yes, my beloved, addicted, "mental" Friday FUN-parlay.

    Sandwiches & Carrots Round 6: got all these in yesterday. wont have much time today. I have the 'luxury' of losing all these plays and still coming out with a profit this year. but Round 6 tends to fare very well; with 3 angles heavily leaned in my favor: 
    1) for some of these squads prospect of a major windfall if they can advance. i cannot stress this enuff.  not guarantee-ing anything, and this angle can just as easily blow up in my face.  however, history disctates and has proven it doesnt.  aside from a massive injury list, you wont find a better opportunity to fade "heavies" this year. 
    2) 3rd place Europa spots. lot of those 'smaller' clubs really DO want to remain involved in Europe
    3) securing 1st place. you had better believe this is important for some of those 1st/2nd place teams.  1st place = getting the 2nd leg at home in knockouts. it doesnt guarantee anything but any coach worth his salary knows the importance of this. and its a HC responsibility to put his club in the best possible situation in increase their chances of succeeding.  hence, do NOT write off those clubs whom already qualified. the 6th game is STILL frickin important for some.

    there are some teams whom couldnt give a darn about their domestic games this weekend.  

    Just to sample, so ya dont think im talking out of side of mouth: 
    last years 6th Round record was 6 wins, 12 losses, 8 draws (out . 2 years ago 6 wins, 13 losses, 5 draws.    and I dont think I need to xplain the payouts with some of those lines. 

    ManU, Barca, ManC, Besitkas, Tott all are PASS this weekend. regardless of whatever happens midweek, they will clinch first. many times clubs will put their best players forward for the league and REST during the CL in those scenarios.  I dont have to the time to read each squad individually to determine.

    at the other end, Monaco, Feye, Olympiak.,Maribor, Qarabag are PASS. all totally eliminated from europe. there are some whom think "pride" can motivate for 6th round, which in some cases could be true, but again, i dont really have the time to super-analyze a teams psyche in leagues I might not be all too familiar with.

    *** Napoli/Juve - NO PLAY.  both involved ****

    letting it rip, one last time.... till the knockouts commence. 

    Lausanne/Basel +650, +309
    BHA/'Pool +650, +350
    Tula/Spartak +460, +280 (Friday)
    Hoff/Leipzig +220, +280
    Watford/Tott +400, +325 
    Strasborg/PSG +1450, +750 +1.5 @+165
    Lokeren/Ander +600, +325
    Lever/Dort +140 (hoping to squeeze one last play out of the Poster Child whom are now 1-2D-7 the past 3 yers in this spot)


    Home Teams: tho' these are ALL home matches, which doesnt bode well in earlier rounds.
    CSKA/Tosno +800, +350 (Friday)
    Roma/SPAL +1500, +670 +1.5 @+125 (Friday)
    Atletico/Sociedad +650, +320
    Sporting/Belen +1400, +690 +1.5 @+135 (Friday)
    Sevilla/Deport +660, +400
    Shakhtar/Veres +1525, +550 +1.5 @+120
    Porto/Benefica +420, +250 (Friday)
    APOEL/Ermis +900, +475
    Celtic/Mother +1300, +750 +1.5 @+165
    Munich/Hannover +1.5 @+190
    Chelsea/Newcastle +1400, +550, +1.5 @+114


     
    specimen24
    specimen24
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2017 - 10:32 AM ET #2

    Friday over 1.5 Holland FUN Parlay:
    8-team over 1.5 @+193

    Serie A: (Sunday)
    Milan + over 2.5 @evens - players really have no excuses now; and new coach Gattuso has already stated hes playing just 3 in the back with 2 forwards up front which is better suited for them. everything i've read/heard is pointing to a woodshed beating. 
    Suso(Milan) to score anytime @+210 - my entry as striker this week for fantasy; taking a chance with this one but hes been playing very well for them & either setting up or scoring goals. vs the weakest defense he will get his chances.  the "sexy" pick would be to take Higuain vs his old team. but I am NOT touching anything related to that match. 

    Torino to win @+150 - time for these guys to start picking up points, they are drawing waaay too much for my liking. tho' Atalanta is having a really nice season with a great Europa run also, they are Jekyll & Hyde in home/away.  On road they are winless in Serie A and have scored just 5 goals in 6 roadies; while conceding 2+ in 4 of their 6. 
    Torino/Atalanta over 2.5 @-115, over 3.5 @+185 - another one of those lines i just dont get. yes, Torino struggling a bit. but near evens at home on an over with what appears to be a healthy squad whom have this nasty habit of conceding late goals? ill gladly take this.

    Napoli/Juve - not making any 'pre-excuses'. but this is a nasty spot for BOTH teams.  Game of the Year Part I. right smack dab in the middle of a Sandwich spot for both clubs whom have major CL "must-win" scenarios mindweek. no further comments

    too much in play at one time so am not sure if ill have any others.

    GL to all
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    Friday over 1.5 Holland FUN Parlay:
    8-team over 1.5 @+193

    Serie A: (Sunday)
    Milan + over 2.5 @evens - players really have no excuses now; and new coach Gattuso has already stated hes playing just 3 in the back with 2 forwards up front which is better suited for them. everything i've read/heard is pointing to a woodshed beating. 
    Suso(Milan) to score anytime @+210 - my entry as striker this week for fantasy; taking a chance with this one but hes been playing very well for them & either setting up or scoring goals. vs the weakest defense he will get his chances.  the "sexy" pick would be to take Higuain vs his old team. but I am NOT touching anything related to that match. 

    Torino to win @+150 - time for these guys to start picking up points, they are drawing waaay too much for my liking. tho' Atalanta is having a really nice season with a great Europa run also, they are Jekyll & Hyde in home/away.  On road they are winless in Serie A and have scored just 5 goals in 6 roadies; while conceding 2+ in 4 of their 6. 
    Torino/Atalanta over 2.5 @-115, over 3.5 @+185 - another one of those lines i just dont get. yes, Torino struggling a bit. but near evens at home on an over with what appears to be a healthy squad whom have this nasty habit of conceding late goals? ill gladly take this.

    Napoli/Juve - not making any 'pre-excuses'. but this is a nasty spot for BOTH teams.  Game of the Year Part I. right smack dab in the middle of a Sandwich spot for both clubs whom have major CL "must-win" scenarios mindweek. no further comments

    too much in play at one time so am not sure if ill have any others.

    GL to all
     
    Blowoutfarts
    Blowoutfarts
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    Posts: 61
    Posted: Dec. 1, 2017 - 10:48 AM ET #3

    Great write up!
    As Crazt as this may sound I personally think ov 2.5 +106 On Juve vs Napoli is a solid value.
    As you mentioned above the so called ‘Game of the year part I’ should be fun to watch and I think both teams come out trying to go up and Juve shouldn’t play for a draw.
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    Great write up!
    As Crazt as this may sound I personally think ov 2.5 +106 On Juve vs Napoli is a solid value.
    As you mentioned above the so called ‘Game of the year part I’ should be fun to watch and I think both teams come out trying to go up and Juve shouldn’t play for a draw.
     
    LooseNotLose
    LooseNotLose
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2017 - 11:15 AM ET #4

    When did you start playing the home team on the sandwiches...I seem to remember your telling me a play wasn’t a play because the team was at home a month or so ago.

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    When did you start playing the home team on the sandwiches...I seem to remember your telling me a play wasn’t a play because the team was at home a month or so ago.

     
    LooseNotLose
    LooseNotLose
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2017 - 11:18 AM ET #5

    Also, when you only have one play (BL/Dort for example) which is that and why?  Thanks 
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    Also, when you only have one play (BL/Dort for example) which is that and why?  Thanks 
     
    rewinds2k
    rewinds2k
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2017 - 11:28 AM ET #6

    Come on, give us a write-up on Napoli/Juve, you know you want to.
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    Come on, give us a write-up on Napoli/Juve, you know you want to.
     
    LooseNotLose
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2017 - 11:34 AM ET #7

    Ya, and make sure you say nice things about Napoli while you’re at it. 
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    Ya, and make sure you say nice things about Napoli while you’re at it. 
     
    specimen24
    specimen24
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2017 - 11:37 AM ET #8

    Blow   when ya look at the table & Napoli has  4 pt lead.  personally i think the scudetto still runs thru turin, the 2nd match later on will dictate a lot of things.    

    (taking off tinted glasses).    now, the REALITY of it is with a 4 pt lead I am unsure if either tem is gonna risk "going for it" after the 75th minute.  it "shortens" the chances for the 'over.  a draw suits napoli just fine and forces juve to still need help elswhere. (hypothetically speaking if both run the table rest of season.. which wont happen). but with the strikeforce each squad has, this can easily be 4-3 final.  but a 1-1 is possible too. 
    of course, i hope my guys win, but just trying to give an honest opinion/perspective.

    Loose    yes. i apologize, was in  hurry to get this up so could watch the drawing. those home matches are NOT a partof the system. it is the ROAD teams only.   i was careful to xplain this 2 weeks ago as it being separate and regular plays. and forgot to mention.   it falls under the same theory. but a little riskier. in the earlier rounds it is absolute suicide to fade the home sides.  im not even comfy taking Munich or Celtic.   just being a robot and not let the feelings get involved. 
    ya know one of the big difference between Munich & Dort? - at years end, its not 'THE' reason, but a contributing factor - when ya look at the table and the pt difference in the title.......Munich 'takes care of their business' in these spots while Dort falters consistently. i HATE fading Munich, thats why I took the 1.5.
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    Blow   when ya look at the table & Napoli has  4 pt lead.  personally i think the scudetto still runs thru turin, the 2nd match later on will dictate a lot of things.    

    (taking off tinted glasses).    now, the REALITY of it is with a 4 pt lead I am unsure if either tem is gonna risk "going for it" after the 75th minute.  it "shortens" the chances for the 'over.  a draw suits napoli just fine and forces juve to still need help elswhere. (hypothetically speaking if both run the table rest of season.. which wont happen). but with the strikeforce each squad has, this can easily be 4-3 final.  but a 1-1 is possible too. 
    of course, i hope my guys win, but just trying to give an honest opinion/perspective.

    Loose    yes. i apologize, was in  hurry to get this up so could watch the drawing. those home matches are NOT a partof the system. it is the ROAD teams only.   i was careful to xplain this 2 weeks ago as it being separate and regular plays. and forgot to mention.   it falls under the same theory. but a little riskier. in the earlier rounds it is absolute suicide to fade the home sides.  im not even comfy taking Munich or Celtic.   just being a robot and not let the feelings get involved. 
    ya know one of the big difference between Munich & Dort? - at years end, its not 'THE' reason, but a contributing factor - when ya look at the table and the pt difference in the title.......Munich 'takes care of their business' in these spots while Dort falters consistently. i HATE fading Munich, thats why I took the 1.5.
     
    specimen24
    specimen24
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2017 - 12:02 PM ET #9

    rewinds    you DO realize how hard it is being objective i hope?  
    for one thing fellas, I have Sporting to advance @+600 from the group. but when i made that play back in august it was partly based on the "assumption" italy would make the WC.  (i dunno how to find that thread anymore)

    WHOOOPS! 

    so now, lets hope for Juve advancing. then get paired with Totty in knockouts.  stick me and Bollox in one thread and throw away the keys.    dont worry Bollox, ill call the coroner to come pick you up 

    Loose, Naples is a wonderful city. their soccer team has 27 players.      satisfied??? 

    Allegri inserting Higuain into the lineup as sole striker and from everything ive heard we are going with a 4 in the backline.  ie..... defensive approach. but our days of clean-sheeting opponents are long gone. 

    "Also, when you only have one play (BL/Dort for example) which is that and why?  Thanks "    i think i mentioned this a few months back, not sure.    when home side is in/near +150s i eschew the draw and just go for the outright.    i have a stat on the %'s somewhere, but its been hovering around 75-80%.   doesnt happen all too much in one year.   basically, when ya see a line like that it usually means the home side is strong. last round Arse beat Tott in that spot i think.
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    rewinds    you DO realize how hard it is being objective i hope?  
    for one thing fellas, I have Sporting to advance @+600 from the group. but when i made that play back in august it was partly based on the "assumption" italy would make the WC.  (i dunno how to find that thread anymore)

    WHOOOPS! 

    so now, lets hope for Juve advancing. then get paired with Totty in knockouts.  stick me and Bollox in one thread and throw away the keys.    dont worry Bollox, ill call the coroner to come pick you up 

    Loose, Naples is a wonderful city. their soccer team has 27 players.      satisfied??? 

    Allegri inserting Higuain into the lineup as sole striker and from everything ive heard we are going with a 4 in the backline.  ie..... defensive approach. but our days of clean-sheeting opponents are long gone. 

    "Also, when you only have one play (BL/Dort for example) which is that and why?  Thanks "    i think i mentioned this a few months back, not sure.    when home side is in/near +150s i eschew the draw and just go for the outright.    i have a stat on the %'s somewhere, but its been hovering around 75-80%.   doesnt happen all too much in one year.   basically, when ya see a line like that it usually means the home side is strong. last round Arse beat Tott in that spot i think.
     
    jkatakoon
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2017 - 12:28 PM ET #10

    Love your write-ups, spec! BOL this weekend. Will be checking in on your threads.
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    Love your write-ups, spec! BOL this weekend. Will be checking in on your threads.
     
    specimen24
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2017 - 10:13 PM ET #11

     Juve 

    Juve.   we picked a good time to have our best defensive performance of the year. hadnt seen that since last spring vs Barca. not dancing on top of my chair. but dang!!  im happy as a pig in pile of mud today. and in a game like this where both teams know each others tendencies it all comes down to mistakes. 
    we didnt make any and won. might not be that fortunate next time but I'll deal with that when it comes.
    hope we can put in a few more performances like that and be consistent. that old man back there still got some spring in those legs with a couple of nice saves. in some ways its hard to believe he's almost 40 years old. 
    shoulda listened to self above and taken Higuain for fantasy pts. 

    just checked sandwiches; a PK (Sporting), a red card (Roma), and a 90th minute goal (Spartak) was the difference, such is the life with this trend.
    will see what tmrw brings. 

    Inter's eyeballs must be a big as saucers right now. It's Week 15 and they have a chance to take over SOLE posession of 1st place with a win.  who woulda thunk? but Chievo are no pushovers.
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     Juve 

    Juve.   we picked a good time to have our best defensive performance of the year. hadnt seen that since last spring vs Barca. not dancing on top of my chair. but dang!!  im happy as a pig in pile of mud today. and in a game like this where both teams know each others tendencies it all comes down to mistakes. 
    we didnt make any and won. might not be that fortunate next time but I'll deal with that when it comes.
    hope we can put in a few more performances like that and be consistent. that old man back there still got some spring in those legs with a couple of nice saves. in some ways its hard to believe he's almost 40 years old. 
    shoulda listened to self above and taken Higuain for fantasy pts. 

    just checked sandwiches; a PK (Sporting), a red card (Roma), and a 90th minute goal (Spartak) was the difference, such is the life with this trend.
    will see what tmrw brings. 

    Inter's eyeballs must be a big as saucers right now. It's Week 15 and they have a chance to take over SOLE posession of 1st place with a win.  who woulda thunk? but Chievo are no pushovers.
     
    LooseNotLose
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2017 - 10:58 PM ET #12

    One more question professor: you said Tott isn’t a play cause they clinched 1st but then you listed them as a play...hmmm

    I thought maybe Napoli doesn’t have it upstairs and I think it’s a thing now.  Enjoy the win!
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    One more question professor: you said Tott isn’t a play cause they clinched 1st but then you listed them as a play...hmmm

    I thought maybe Napoli doesn’t have it upstairs and I think it’s a thing now.  Enjoy the win!
     
    specimen24
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    Posted: Dec. 1, 2017 - 11:39 PM ET #13

    Loose   i dunno about Napoli, they didnt play all that bad today and pretty much had us pinned back in our end the entire 2nd half. but then again, when we play 'D' like that, thats what the matches end up looking like. but yeah, from the psychological aspect, its gotta be entering their minds.

    as far as Tott?  (laughing) im not immune to accidental plays.  when I wrote those 'PASS' teams i had already just gone down thru the list and made the plays. since Tott on road it was like "automatic".  and to prove my apparent lack of diligence I also noticed I plunked Arsenal @+145 tmrw too.

    this is what happens when ur mind is on Napoli all (bleep) week.      pardon for my 'sloppiness'.  
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    Loose   i dunno about Napoli, they didnt play all that bad today and pretty much had us pinned back in our end the entire 2nd half. but then again, when we play 'D' like that, thats what the matches end up looking like. but yeah, from the psychological aspect, its gotta be entering their minds.

    as far as Tott?  (laughing) im not immune to accidental plays.  when I wrote those 'PASS' teams i had already just gone down thru the list and made the plays. since Tott on road it was like "automatic".  and to prove my apparent lack of diligence I also noticed I plunked Arsenal @+145 tmrw too.

    this is what happens when ur mind is on Napoli all (bleep) week.      pardon for my 'sloppiness'.  
     
    specimen24
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    Posted: Dec. 2, 2017 - 7:58 AM ET #14

    quickly adding:

    Serie B:
    Parma -1 @+125
    Frosinone/Cesena over 2.5 @+125
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    quickly adding:

    Serie B:
    Parma -1 @+125
    Frosinone/Cesena over 2.5 @+125
     
    specimen24
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    Posted: Dec. 2, 2017 - 9:11 PM ET #15

    well, nailed the serie B's but torino failed me yet again fer a small loss.   got a little too 'cute' taking a chance with the home teams  (Loose, this is a perfect example not to fade home teams)  but strasborg sandwich wiped all that out and whole lot more.

        2-18 shots, 0-13 corners, 32-68 possess.   2-1??

    i dont even wanna know what happened there.    back to the grind tmrw.    
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    well, nailed the serie B's but torino failed me yet again fer a small loss.   got a little too 'cute' taking a chance with the home teams  (Loose, this is a perfect example not to fade home teams)  but strasborg sandwich wiped all that out and whole lot more.

        2-18 shots, 0-13 corners, 32-68 possess.   2-1??

    i dont even wanna know what happened there.    back to the grind tmrw.    
     
    LooseNotLose
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    Posted: Dec. 2, 2017 - 10:16 PM ET #16

    It’s funny, I played all the sandwiches with you this time for fun...didn’t play everything for a full unit but certainly broke even...the thing is the ONE wager I was thinking I would skip was the Strasbourg ML but as I’ve seen you say, I took a deep breath and jumped...just missed on a few, do we do this again in the knockout rounds?  

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    It’s funny, I played all the sandwiches with you this time for fun...didn’t play everything for a full unit but certainly broke even...the thing is the ONE wager I was thinking I would skip was the Strasbourg ML but as I’ve seen you say, I took a deep breath and jumped...just missed on a few, do we do this again in the knockout rounds?  

     
     
    specimen24
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    Posted: Dec. 2, 2017 - 11:20 PM ET #17

    Loose, ya kow. when I first started doing this waay back I used to do that a lot......try to "cherry-pick" and it was becoming frustrating as I found self missing out on huge payoffs.  cuz i let my mind get involved.   learned my lessons and pretty much have it down pat to where its simply "auto-plays".    though this thread is long with writeups, i really dont spend much time with it.    too many distractions this past week. 

    knockouts?   h*ll yes.   but the HC line is the best option. 
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    Loose, ya kow. when I first started doing this waay back I used to do that a lot......try to "cherry-pick" and it was becoming frustrating as I found self missing out on huge payoffs.  cuz i let my mind get involved.   learned my lessons and pretty much have it down pat to where its simply "auto-plays".    though this thread is long with writeups, i really dont spend much time with it.    too many distractions this past week. 

    knockouts?   h*ll yes.   but the HC line is the best option. 
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