Hedging Question - last leg Man U vs. the Spurs

Ark I don't understand your point.  Of couse there is tremendous value on geting Man U to win at -175 and having the line now at -300 but why would not I not wager my current bankroll to guarantee profit especially considering it was a $40 wager?

Locking in my lines at +375 and +575 now.  Thanks again for the feedback gentlemen. 

Oh how much more confident I would be if this were Real and Barcelona playing their home opener....La Liga lock out

Very nice, congratulations!   

Quote Originally Posted by goheels420:

Ark I respectfully disagree with your math argument.  When I say hedge I am implying that I would have put 10K on Tott +.5/1 to guarantee myself 10K in profit rather than risk making nothing if Man U didn't win.  I believed Man U was going to win but anything can happen so why the hell not risk a small amount (3K out of 21K) to guarantee at least 5K?  

Thanks for the kind words Mex and Sultan

Sir -

Congratulations on your win.

But you are debating mathematics with anecdotal perceptions.

You GAVE AWAY money today to "hedge" or "bet" or whatever you want to call it.  You lost value.  You did not get as much for your position as you should have.

It is like saying "I found a baseball card in my attic, and sold it for 100 bucks!!  It was worth 200, but I didnt know I had it so I ensured myself a profit and took the first offer."  YOU DIDNT GET WHAT YOUR POSITION WAS WORTH.

So I am glad for you, understand your excitement, and wish you the best.  But you did do a dumb thing by betting this parlay, you should have done it differently, and Arka is right.  You could have bet it in a different way, and made possibly 24K instead of 18K with the exact same risk.  You lowered your payout for no reason, essentially selling the 200 baseball card for 100 because you were happy with the 100 at that moment.

Thanks fellas.  Gonna try to keep the good karma going with a pretty homer public big chalk parlay

Phillies ML

Texas ML

Cleveland ML

St. Louis ML

Rockies ML

1K to win 8.2

  just don't throw it away on 1K parlays please!!!  

1K 5 team parlays   

But you are debating mathematics with anecdotal perceptions.

You GAVE AWAY money today to "hedge" or "bet" or whatever you want to call it.  You lost value.  You did not get as much for your position as you should have.

It is like saying "I found a baseball card in my attic, and sold it for 100 bucks!!  It was worth 200, but I didnt know I had it so I ensured myself a profit and took the first offer."  YOU DIDNT GET WHAT YOUR POSITION WAS WORTH.

So I am glad for you, understand your excitement, and wish you the best.  But you did do a dumb thing by betting this parlay, you should have done it differently, and Arka is right.  You could have bet it in a different way, and made possibly 24K instead of 18K with the exact same risk.  You lowered your payout for no reason, essentially selling the 200 baseball card for 100 because you were happy with the 100 at that moment.

Vanzack your analogy does not make sense to me.  Maybe I am beign dense but until Man U won this afternoon I had a $40 wager (baseball card) that ended up being worth 21K but it could have been worth nothing if Man U did not win.  In my opinion a more applicable analogy would be if you told me you were offering me a baseball card that could be worth 21K or could be worth nothing and giving me the option of instead chosing to pick betwen two baseball cards that were worth either 18K or 5K. 

Sure I could have bet the parlay differently but at the time I put it in I was obviously not banking on it hitting.  After all it was a $40 play.  Given the circumstances and my 3K bankroll going in to today I feel like I made the right play to maximize value of my pending wager. 

Cheers.  Enjoying some 1792 to get the evening started

Thanks Hugh.  Your probably right I remember reading some of the exchanges with others

I don't use locals so hopefully my book doesn't get shut down by the feds