Italy v Spain Picks and Analysis

2012-13 Covers Posted Soccer: 177-144 +69.79 units

SPAIN V ITALIA

On the surface, and my all accounts, Italy is going to try to clog the midfield today and go with a 3-5-2 formation with two strikers, Gilardino and El Shawaaray.  In prior games, Prandelli chose to go with Balotelli in the lone striker role and only threw on another forward when the team needed goals.  When compared to all their other matches so far, this is the first game where Prandelli will use two strikers out of the gate.  Don’t be fooled by a 3-5-2 though as it has become Juventus’ primary formation (led Serie A in goals scored last year) and it can be a very useful attacking formation as it can be a holding one formation or quickly revert to a 4-3-3.  The real question is whether Italy will have the depth or the players with sufficient abilities.

The 3-5-2 is essentially a modified 4-3-3 (attack minded formation) where the two outside midfielders are mostly fullbacks that can drop into a 4-3-3 at any given time. Their role is not only to cover the back but to spread out the midfield and to make the overlap runs.  It’s not as defensive a formation as some think when they see 5 midfielders.  Remember, there are two starting strikers and the two central midfielders are usually attacking midfielders and in today’s game will be Pirlo and De Rossi.

By all accounts, Pirlo (vital to the team’s midfield) will play despite not being 100% healthy.  I’ll take an 80% fit Pirlo over most of the world’s midfielders any day of the week thank you.   Aquillani will also start at central defense.   He hasn’t been particularly good so far this tournament and is prone to losing the ball in one on one situations. 

The outside midfielders are critical to this formation.  On the left we have AC Milan’s left fullback, De Sciglio who is very capable of getting into the attack and getting back to defend. On the outside right it looks like Napoli’s Maggio gets the start.  Of the two,  I expect most of the play to be built up from De Sciglio’s side as he represents the better passer of the two.  Maggio is mainly used as a defensive midfielder or a left defensive back where as De Sciglio is more attack oriented but lacks physical strength which shouldn’t make a difference today vs. Spain.

As for goaltending, Buffon is in net for Italy today.  I’ll be blunt.  He’s lost a little bit of some reaction time and his goaltending this tournament hasn’t been his best by far.  He will need to bring his A game today.   Most of the midfield attack should come from De Rossi, Pirlo and Aquilani with the wingers coming in for support.  I suspect Maggio will hang further back. 

Gilardino had a good year with Geona this season and let’s hope he’s got a few more goals left in his boots.  His size should be a problem in the box for Spain on Italy's set pieces.  El Shaawaray had a great start to the Seria A campaign but faded down the stretch.  Again, he needs to have one of his great games if Italy is going to create something.

Back to defense for a little bit ... this is by far the lowest player rated defense Italy has fielded in a while.  Chiellini will need to have the game of his life considering his defensive partners will be Bonucci in the middle and Barzagli as the right central defender.  Barzagli is normally prone to playing a fullback position and in my opinion is not strong.  How well Bonucci and Barzagli play is going to be vital.  I have my doubts.  Finally as for Italy’s formation, much depends on wing play and crosses are vital.  They hold a significant height advantage to Spain which could cause trouble on set pieces. 

As for Spain, where do I start.  They have goals from almost every position as Alba (left back) showed last game when he netted two against Nigeria.  Spain will run their 4-3-3 with Pedro, Soldado and Fabgregras up front supported by Xvi Busquets and Iniesta in the midfield.  Like I said, fullback Alba loves to join the attack as does Arbeloa.  Goaltender Casillas will come back in between the pipes after sitting out in favor of Valdes in the two games against Tahiti and Nigeria.  Remember it was Casillas that got beat by that Suarez free kick late in their first game.  Pirlo is just as dangerous, if not greater, from set pieces.

Torres looks to be out of his funk (maybe he needed weaker competition to get his confidence back) and is always an option should he be needed.  We may also see a surprise start from him this game but I highly doubt it.   Bottom line, it doesn’t really matter who Spain inserts into this lineup.  The fact is that Spain has been the dominating team in the world and as much as I’d love to see Italy win, I have to face the facts that Italy is the rightful underdog today.

However, here are some very important numbers people need to be aware of.

Since Prandelli took over as lead man for Italy, the club has moved away from possession based football and has started to attack more and is known for their attack minded football.  It didn’t look like it at first because Prandelli chose to go with one striker to start the games (mainly because he  needed Gilardino as a sub and El Shaawaray was still not 100% fit but you saw what happened when Giovinco hit the pitch and Italy went with a two striker/forward formation .. they created many chances.  The loss of Abate at right back is just as important as Balotelli’s because of Abate’s pace and ability to track back quickly.  Montolivo, a vital part of the playmaking in the midfield is also highly questionable due to injury.

So, what factors should be considered?

• As I mentioned, Spain can find goals from almost every position. 
• Spain have scored in 15 of their last 16 matches and conversely, Italy has scored in 14 of their last 15 matches on the international stage.  Interestingly enough, that game Italy didn’t score in was the 4-0 European Cup finals to this Spanish side.  Note: Italy had a better team for that final than they do for today’s game. 
• Italy has been conceding goals of late in international play.  There is something going on at the back end and whether it has to do with Buffon’s slowing reflexes, poor defensive play or Prandelli’s over emphasis on attacking football, this cannot be overlooked.  3 goals to Japan? 4 goals to Brazil?  7 goals against is a problem and Brazil and Japan hit Italy with speed and by playing on the front foot.  Will Spain do that or will they sit back and pick their spots?  I don’t think it will matter.

ITALY V SPAIN OVER 2.5 -125 TO WIN 2 UNITS

My GUT tells me Italy can pull off the upset but I don’t make gut decisions.  I’ll be betting on goals but rooting for an Italy win.

** I provide my analysis for a reason ... if you agree .. bet ... if you disagree, then pass.  Whatever you do ... good luck today.

CORRECTION: .... THAT'S OVER 2.5 -109 ..... I had typed in another market that caught my attention but decided to pass.

CONFIRMING PLAYS:

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE -104 TO WIN 2 UNITS

ITALY V SPAIN OVER 2.5 -109 TO WIN 2 UNITS

i agree with ur analysis fever. i think it comes down to can italy score one to push the game over. i also like the fact that casillas is in goal. basically think ur analysis is dead on.