Malmo - Celtic 25/08 - discussion

Europe record: 4-2-1 (+9.07)
Accuracy: 66.67%
Average odds: +123 (2.23)
Average stake: 2.5 units

Celtic - Malmo: First leg 3-2
Malmo - Celtic: Second leg X-X

Swedbank Stadium - Malmö, Sweden 25/08.
No doubt, this is another magnificent chance for Malmo do reach the Champions League group stages after claiming an ohh sooo vital last second goal in Celtic to make it 3-2. A loss on paper, but a brilliant result against a team who are known to be tough at home. Noticeably, the Celtic players were receiving "boo's" from the crowd after the result, and the players were quick to leave the field with the heads hanging. Malmo though, celebrated like if they had won - rightly so, it was a good result, especially without their captain Rosenberg and midfielder Adu who both missed out due to suspension.

A trend to consider

MFF - Torshavn: 2-0
MFF - Rangers: 1-1
MFF - Zagreb: 2-0
MFF - Drogheda: 2-0
MFF - Hibernian: 2-0
MFF - Swansea: 0-0
MFF - Ventspils: 0-0
MFF - Prag: 2-0
MFF - Salzburg: 3-0
MFF - Zalgiris: 0-0
MFF - Salzburg: 3-0

And the losses? Atletico Madrid and Juventus both beat Malmo in Sweden, but those are the only two sides that have managed to do so in the last 3 years in European competitions. Celtic are not Juventus nor Atletico, and after suffering a heavy goal mentally in minute 95, giving Malmo the advantage, they will be met by a not only a stadium of fanatic people, but by an entire city painted in the opponents colours. It is closer to a religion than just "soccer/football" in Malmo. Myself, being born there can justify it. The fact to have their most important player back is massive, Markus Rosenberg has proven to be the man of the big matches, and Celtic shown they were vulnerable on defense. It has been a very long time since the Swedes conceded a goal at home in Europe apart from almighty Juventus and Atletico who managed it. If Malmo could score 2 away goals, certainly they can score at least 2-3 and I dare to say even 4 if they put themselves in a situation where it's needed.

Celtic have a tough task ahead of them, to even score on this stadium is a big achievement. They have scary away memories lately, when they traveled to Azerbaijan to take on Karabakh, and managed 1 single shot on goal in 90 minutes, also being dominated 60% in possession. I expect Celtic to be passive, and Malmo to dominate possession and chances. I will not put more effort into the writing, I have been riding Malmo for two straight seasons now in Europe and they have provided pretty much an annual salary in profits for myself, and I continue to lean against the strong home record backed up with a heavy home support. Weather guru: 55 F, wet and humid - Vikings to rule the Celtics. C'mon Skyblues

Spreading out 10 units according to below

Malmo PK @ 1.88 (6/10)
Malmo over 1.5 goals @ 2.10 (2/10)
Malmo -1 AH @ 3.80 (1/10)

"Funny bet"
Rosenberg to score over 1.5 goals @ 9.50 (1/10)

Good luck!

I love Malmo tomorrow!  I will be on them large as well 

I was just waiting for a thread from you for the game tomorrow. Also have this play as my league play tomorrow, wishing you the best of luck here. I saw a funny video of Rosenborg secretly arriving at the hotel in Glasgow I believe and then he pumped the crowd, legendary guy. 

Sweem 

I was hoping to get +0.5 -110 on Malmo, but the fact they opened as small favs of pk -126 says a lot about them.

The bookies are finally catching on to how good Malmo is. 

The early money is coming in on Celtic and the line has dropped a bit. Currently pk -114.

I am going to wait and try to get Malmo at pk +110 or better. 

Good luck tomorrow. 

BOL to your boys tomorrow

Love the play and write up. My boy keeps yelling Malmö Malmö around the house!

looking forward to this match..

scottish football is toilet, i may tail u on malmo, GL to u tomorrow sweem 

Thanks to everyone  had a hard time sleeping ahead of a champions league deciding night, now I just want kickoff to start

@Kaiser haha I did not know that one spread to more corners around the world, but he is a fantastic captain and a funny guy. Just ahead of this game on the conference, he was asked what he thinks about the trash talk on the field against Celtic, and he said "I like it, it's funny.. I am good at it in more than one language" - he is fired up!

@Rave slight slight favorites, I think it's the first time in European matches we are favorites.Might also come down to the fact that Celtic have not lost in 6 months, which deserves respect, but on the other hand they're so superior domestically that it is not really fair to make such a conclusion. Hope we can hand them their first one for a long time
@Jules that is brilliant. Eventually they'll start chanting the Malmo songs at home in fluent swedish, just give it time

@Bollox That's my general opinion too, although I respect Celtic, the name itself feels more intimidating than the actual team. Thanks for the support
 

Both team to score -165 pot $500

My only concern here is potential fan bias in your write up, you clearly have an affection for the team, so is that skewing your vision or is this all legitimate?

good luck sweem, would love to see Malmö going through 

Of course, not a surprise I'm a Malmö supporter - not lost a bet on this team in european competition so this is a mixture of strong belief in "my" team and grabbing a value bet in my eyes. Of course DO NOT invest heavy if you just read my writeups for the first time about Malmö; they are biased

Almost a sweep     probably should have been.  Rosenberg could have very easily have had a second.  

Thanks for the evening boys, magnificent result for us all - Gotta say, I felt a bit pressured seeing the entire forum including Malmo on their selections today, but very glad it paid off

Total +9.28 units today on Malmo, minus the one unit on Rosenberg, but I was ready to lose that one. Overall, really excited to see us discard Celtic and now I will look forward to the group stage and book some away trips for the European adventure!

Lovely to share these moments with you guys, thanks for all the support.. you know the greatest of things is not to "win money" but to me it's to share a win with this community, love the feeling of sitting in front of the TV cheering, knowing that the forum does so as well

Summarize the effort, looks solid we have to say!

Europe record: 7-3-1 (+18.35)
Accuracy: 70%
Average odds: +206 (3.06)
Average stake: 2.5 units

Excellent analysis on Malmo match Sweem!

Excellent!

Thanks buddy, glad it turned out according to plan. I will keep loving it if the bookies continue to offer underdog odds on Malmo all the time - if there is one team I know inside out, from physios, ball boys, coaches and players, this is the team. So proud to see them achieve something this big for two consecutive years, even if they struggle domestically this year and will not win the league, this is certainly a new era beginning of Swedish football.. the next 5-10 years will be all skyblue

malmo remind me greatly of dnipro and their amazing run last season in europa. hope it runs the same for malmo very tough team and always appreciate whenteams lijke malmo suprise the traditional big teams. gl to you sweem

Can I claim credit for tempting Sweem back in during the first leg?!?!

Happy for your team , sweem

Great result !

Sweem

Just saw the highlights!! Outstanding win for Malmo.

I waited until about 10 min. before kickoff and got Malmo at pk +115. They opened at pk -126 and closed at pk +120. A 46 cent line move against.

There were many bettors who doubted in Malmo today, but they are so tough at home in these qualifying rounds.

Hopefully, they get a decent draw for the group stage. 

 

I follow EPL and Champions League but know absolutely nothing about Malmo.