MONDAY SOCCER

Hi guys .. miss you all.  Been solely focussing on posting my plays on twitter because I haven't had the time to write up the games as I like to do.

These are the plays I tweeted out last night…. I finally had some time to provide analysis so you can make your own minds up.  These are abbreviated write ups.  All plays 2 units

Napoli Team total over 2 -122

Napoli has scored 2 or more goals in 7 of their 9 home matches this season and went into the holiday break on the heels of two high scoring home matches in which they scored 4 goals on Inter and 3 goals on Udinese.  Looking at the entire season, they have netted 2 or more goals in 12 of their 17 games including 6 of their last 9 (home/away) overall.

Sampdoria has allowed 2 or more goals in half their away matches this season.  . With a well-rested squad at Benitez's disposal and with Roma losing on Sunday, expect Napoli to go all out for the win here and beat an improved, but still vulnerable Sampdoria defense.

Sampdoria has allowed 2 or more goals in 6 of their last 10 road games vs top 6 opposition including 3 of their last 4 in that situation.  Draws won't help their cause knowing that Napoli is going to go for the full 3 and have done well in killing off games this season.

AC Milan v Atalanta over 2.5 -110

Milan has had plenty of time to recovery from a poor first half of the season that has them 13th in the table and at risk of an actual relegation battle unless they start winning.  Milan cannot afford to slip up anymore and must force the issue and seek the maximum 3 points from their upcoming games and there is no better time to start than right now with a fully rested squad after the holiday break.   However, one of Milan's deficiencies this season has been the propensity to allow goals on set pieces and in general, to allow goals.  Milan has allowed the 7th most amount of goals in Serie A (26) after 17 matches.  Atlanta is just behind them with 25 goals allowed after 17 matches.

Milan have conceded in all but 2 of their 8 home matches this season and Atalanta has only 1 away clean sheet in 9 road matches played. I do expect both teams to find the back of the net but I also forecast that Milan should win this game.  However, I don't like the price on either the btts market or the Milan win market and I am not confident in playing the asian handicap on Milan until they prove they can get hot.  So, with all things considered, I have turned to the goals market and the over 2.5 which in my view has a reasonable chance of cashing given that Atalanta is only 4 points from the drop zone and Milan is not too far away either.  A draw does neither team any good here and both should open up their play to seek out the all-important win.

Milan's manager Allegri has announced he will step down at the end of the season.  This should alleviate a lot of the pressure on the sidelines but at the same time, leaves me wondering what his game plans will be given this decision in light of his foggy game planning so far this season.  This usually leads to goals against.  In any event, both teams need the points and I expect open play.

Udinese v Verona over 2.5 +108

Udinese have kept just one clean sheet in their last 10 games overall. In addition to that, the over 2.5 goals has cashed in 6 of their last 11 against teams that are in 2 to 10th in the table.  They have kept only 3 clean sheets in 10 home matches this season and the fans are pressuring the team to play more offensive minded football. This team can score when they put their minds to it as evidenced by the fact the scored 3 at Napoli

Verona is very offensively motivated. That has caused them to be a little porous at the back and they have conceded an average of over 2 goals per game on the road. Over 2.5 goals has cashed in 6 of their 8 road games this season with 4 of those 6 games going over 3.5 goals.  They are 12-5 "over" in their 17 games this campaign. They are tied for the second most goals allowed on the road but they are also the 6th highest scoring team in the league.  They are second behind Inter for highest scoring games this season.

Lazio v Inter over 2.5 -107

Internazionale have averaged the highest scoring games in Serie a this campaign and it should be no surprise given their new found interest in playing attack minded football.  They are second only to Juventus in the league for goals scored with 37 goals in 17 matches played. They have allowed an average of just over a goal per game. However, of greater importance is that they are the top scoring team on the road after 9 games played.  They have netted 21 goals in 8 games with their away matches averaging 3.88 combined goals per game.

Lazio have averaged 2.75 combined goals per game in their 8 home matches and know that they must be weary of a fantastic Inter attack.

5 of the last 6 head to head meetings between these two clubs have seen over 2.5 goals and given the recent form of these teams, I think this game gets to 3 total goals as well.  We already know Inter's prolific goal numbers noted above but as for Lazio, they have scored 2 or more goals in 6 of their 8 home games.  They can and should score on Inter but at the same time, Inter is not likely to miss many of their chances either.

Thanks guys

Added

Real Madrid v Celta Vigo over 4 -110 2units

This is a great spot for Real Madrid to make up some goal difference in the even that they creep their way back to the top of the table (right now sit 8 points behind Barcelona and Atletico Madrid who both played and won yesterday).  An expected win would put Madrid just 5 points behind the aforementioned 2 teams with plenty of games to be played.

Celta Vigo is in a relegation battle and Real Madrid should have no trouble disposing of them today but the only decision to make is by how much.  Ancelotti has decided to go all out and play direct football in these matches never taking his foot off the accelerator.  He has shown that in their recent home wins of 7-3, 5-1 and 4-0.

The reason I have not taken the handicap on Madrid though is their propensity to concede goals.  They only have 2 clean sheets at home in 8 league matches so far this season.  Now, Celta Viga are not going to upset Madrid but it is worth noting that they are averaging just over 1 goal per game and  have only failed to score twice in 8 road games.  They scored at Atletico Madrid in a 2-1 loss there, 3 goals at Real Sociedad and 2 goals in a 3-2 loss at Bilbao. So they have shown the can score on the road against decent teams.

5 of Real Madrid’s 8 home games finished with 4 or more goals and like I said, since Ancelotti changed tactics, they have become a scoring machine. 11 of Madrid’s 17 games on the season have seen 4 or more goals.  (65%) including their last 7 overall.  Again, they only have 4 clean sheets in 17 games this season so my spreadsheets are banking on an away goal.

Finally, it is interesting to note that when playing teams in the bottom 6 of the table at home, Real Madrid has seen the over 2.5 go 16-4 in the last 20 matches.  14 of those 16 games saw 4 or more goals.