Lazio and Siena are two clubs desperately in need of points.Lazio is looking to maintain pace with the table leaders and stay within the top 3 while Siena is looking to climb out of last place and out of the relegation zone.A draw does nothing for these two teams tonight as they will both go out and seek out the full points.
Siena at home have had some pretty lopsided results of late.Some recent results include a 3-1 win over Inter Milan in their last home game preceded by a 1-0 win over Sampdoria, a 2-0 loss to Napoli and back to back 3-1 losses to Catania and Roma.
As for Lazio, they are off a disappointing midweek Europa League game in which many goals were scored.Domestically, they have had two pretty high scoring road games recently with their last road game ending in a 3-2 loss to Genoa and a 2-2 draw with Palermo.
The “easy” bet here would be to wager on Lazio and Siena to stay under the toal given that Lazio has stayed under 2.5 in 6 of their last 9 games butI think that these two will play a somewhat open game tonight as they both hunt down 3 much needed points as Lazio currently sits 4th and is in danger of dropping out of the race for a European spot.
I think Siena will find some space today and create some chances against a Lazio team that is most likely to be without Brocchi, Mauri and Ledesma in the midfield. Indications are that head coach Petkobic will go with a 4-4-2 using Floccari and Kazak up front in the striker roles.
Whatever the case, Lazio will be missing a lot of players this game and I feel this can hurt them.The key will be whether or not Siena makes good with the chances that they have in this game.Lazio will get their fair share of chances as well and I do forecast both teams finding the back of the net.My 4 spreadsheet models are split on this game with two models spitting out a 2-1 win for Lazio with the other two spitting out 2-1 wins for Siena.Given that all 4 are in agreement with 3 goals, taking the over 2.25 for me at plus money is a no brainer.I have to bet my numbers or what’s the point of working hard to maintain my spreadsheet models?(FYI, a 2-1 score line prediction is paying 12-1 at some of the European bet shops if you are so inclined)
Expect an open match my friends, one that produces some goals. I was closing to betting the over 2.5 or even 3.5 at significantly higher odds at Bet365 but don’t want to get cocky giving that none of my models pumped out anything greater than 3 goals so will stick with the primary Asian line of 2.25 at an acceptable +114.
SIENA V LAZIO OVER 2/2.5 +114 FOR 2 UNITS
Still waiting for official line-up confirmation for the FA Cup game and will post if I make a play.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Covers Posted Soccer: 92-68 +51.13 units
Siena v Lazio over 2/2.5 +1142 units
Lazio and Siena are two clubs desperately in need of points.Lazio is looking to maintain pace with the table leaders and stay within the top 3 while Siena is looking to climb out of last place and out of the relegation zone.A draw does nothing for these two teams tonight as they will both go out and seek out the full points.
Siena at home have had some pretty lopsided results of late.Some recent results include a 3-1 win over Inter Milan in their last home game preceded by a 1-0 win over Sampdoria, a 2-0 loss to Napoli and back to back 3-1 losses to Catania and Roma.
As for Lazio, they are off a disappointing midweek Europa League game in which many goals were scored.Domestically, they have had two pretty high scoring road games recently with their last road game ending in a 3-2 loss to Genoa and a 2-2 draw with Palermo.
The “easy” bet here would be to wager on Lazio and Siena to stay under the toal given that Lazio has stayed under 2.5 in 6 of their last 9 games butI think that these two will play a somewhat open game tonight as they both hunt down 3 much needed points as Lazio currently sits 4th and is in danger of dropping out of the race for a European spot.
I think Siena will find some space today and create some chances against a Lazio team that is most likely to be without Brocchi, Mauri and Ledesma in the midfield. Indications are that head coach Petkobic will go with a 4-4-2 using Floccari and Kazak up front in the striker roles.
Whatever the case, Lazio will be missing a lot of players this game and I feel this can hurt them.The key will be whether or not Siena makes good with the chances that they have in this game.Lazio will get their fair share of chances as well and I do forecast both teams finding the back of the net.My 4 spreadsheet models are split on this game with two models spitting out a 2-1 win for Lazio with the other two spitting out 2-1 wins for Siena.Given that all 4 are in agreement with 3 goals, taking the over 2.25 for me at plus money is a no brainer.I have to bet my numbers or what’s the point of working hard to maintain my spreadsheet models?(FYI, a 2-1 score line prediction is paying 12-1 at some of the European bet shops if you are so inclined)
Expect an open match my friends, one that produces some goals. I was closing to betting the over 2.5 or even 3.5 at significantly higher odds at Bet365 but don’t want to get cocky giving that none of my models pumped out anything greater than 3 goals so will stick with the primary Asian line of 2.25 at an acceptable +114.
SIENA V LAZIO OVER 2/2.5 +114 FOR 2 UNITS
Still waiting for official line-up confirmation for the FA Cup game and will post if I make a play.
Right now the FA Cup game has the over at 3.5 with +123 being offerred on the over ... I do like the over in that game but will wait because I see this line perhaps moving to 3 by kick off ... at worst, we'll get plus money on the over .... let's see where the bettors take it.
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Right now the FA Cup game has the over at 3.5 with +123 being offerred on the over ... I do like the over in that game but will wait because I see this line perhaps moving to 3 by kick off ... at worst, we'll get plus money on the over .... let's see where the bettors take it.
Got the starting lineups my friends .. thanks Crisp .... just saw an interview with Ferguson on BBC Sport and I do think they come out with professionalism and take this to Reading.
Don't look for a sluggish performance. THIS LINE IS SEEING MONEY TO THE UNDER because the public is quick to overreact. The books are reluctant to take it off the 3.5 for a reason though.
I will stick to my power ratings and spreadsheet models ..... why else spend years trying to perfect them if I am going to sway .... sooooo thanks to Covers text limits... what follows is my play in the Man U game
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Got the starting lineups my friends .. thanks Crisp .... just saw an interview with Ferguson on BBC Sport and I do think they come out with professionalism and take this to Reading.
Don't look for a sluggish performance. THIS LINE IS SEEING MONEY TO THE UNDER because the public is quick to overreact. The books are reluctant to take it off the 3.5 for a reason though.
I will stick to my power ratings and spreadsheet models ..... why else spend years trying to perfect them if I am going to sway .... sooooo thanks to Covers text limits... what follows is my play in the Man U game
My most probable outcome in this game according to my spreadsheets is 4 goals with Manchester United victors of 3-1 in two models, a surprising 2-2 draw in another and a 4-0 win in the fourth.
Expect Ferguson to make wholesale changes to his line-up but don’t expect the poor performance his team had in the game preceding the Real Madrid game when he also made wholesale changes.A team like Manchester United has significant depth and their reserve squad could still compete for the top 4 spots in any European league and might actually win a few of those leagues.
The last match between these two was highly entertaining with United squeaking out a 4-3 win at Reading.Hernandez is expected to lead the strike force for United today and will look to make amends for his national side’s horrible performance a couple weeks back when he looked completely out of form.Expect the highly entertaining striker to find the back of the net in this game.
The winner of this match will face Chelsea in the next round.It’s been a while since Sir Alex Ferguson won an FA Cup and I’m sure that now that he is in within striking distance of the cup, and with a firm and secure 12 point lead in the Premiership, he will make an effort to win this game.
Hernandez, Young, Nani are all expected to get starts with Rooney and Van Persie expected to start on the bench.The problem is that when a team makes such wholesale changes, there is always a chance for miscommunication which can lead to an opposition goal.Notwithstanding that, this is still a avery powerful lineup for Ferguson and with Lindegaard expected to get the start in goal, things might get interesting.At least ferguson will have Van Persie on the bench for the later stages of the game if the match remains undecided late. Rooney is NOT on the bench for this one.With their hectic schedule, Man U can not afford to have Reading force a replay of this match should it end in a draw.
·Reading make six changes as Adam Le Fondre and Noel Hunt get starts up front.
·Manchester United make eight changes from the side which drew at Real Madrid. Javier Hernandez and Danny Welbeck start in attack, Robin van Persie is on the bench but Wayne Rooney is not in the squad.
·Manager Sir Alex Ferguson has told the BBC that he has warned his team against complacency tonight - and has stressed his desire to make an impact in the FA Cup, which United have not won since 2004.
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Manchester United v Reading over 3.5 +1232 units
My most probable outcome in this game according to my spreadsheets is 4 goals with Manchester United victors of 3-1 in two models, a surprising 2-2 draw in another and a 4-0 win in the fourth.
Expect Ferguson to make wholesale changes to his line-up but don’t expect the poor performance his team had in the game preceding the Real Madrid game when he also made wholesale changes.A team like Manchester United has significant depth and their reserve squad could still compete for the top 4 spots in any European league and might actually win a few of those leagues.
The last match between these two was highly entertaining with United squeaking out a 4-3 win at Reading.Hernandez is expected to lead the strike force for United today and will look to make amends for his national side’s horrible performance a couple weeks back when he looked completely out of form.Expect the highly entertaining striker to find the back of the net in this game.
The winner of this match will face Chelsea in the next round.It’s been a while since Sir Alex Ferguson won an FA Cup and I’m sure that now that he is in within striking distance of the cup, and with a firm and secure 12 point lead in the Premiership, he will make an effort to win this game.
Hernandez, Young, Nani are all expected to get starts with Rooney and Van Persie expected to start on the bench.The problem is that when a team makes such wholesale changes, there is always a chance for miscommunication which can lead to an opposition goal.Notwithstanding that, this is still a avery powerful lineup for Ferguson and with Lindegaard expected to get the start in goal, things might get interesting.At least ferguson will have Van Persie on the bench for the later stages of the game if the match remains undecided late. Rooney is NOT on the bench for this one.With their hectic schedule, Man U can not afford to have Reading force a replay of this match should it end in a draw.
·Reading make six changes as Adam Le Fondre and Noel Hunt get starts up front.
·Manchester United make eight changes from the side which drew at Real Madrid. Javier Hernandez and Danny Welbeck start in attack, Robin van Persie is on the bench but Wayne Rooney is not in the squad.
·Manager Sir Alex Ferguson has told the BBC that he has warned his team against complacency tonight - and has stressed his desire to make an impact in the FA Cup, which United have not won since 2004.
OK .. De Gea gets the start in net .... he has to be on cloud nine still after that performance against Real Madrid. Teams always face a let down possibility in huge games whichh again opens the door to a Reading goal in this match which helps the over.
I was surprised to see Nani off the starting 11 and surprised to see Ferguson gong with Vidic instead of Ferdinand at the back ... no biggie though.
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OK .. De Gea gets the start in net .... he has to be on cloud nine still after that performance against Real Madrid. Teams always face a let down possibility in huge games whichh again opens the door to a Reading goal in this match which helps the over.
I was surprised to see Nani off the starting 11 and surprised to see Ferguson gong with Vidic instead of Ferdinand at the back ... no biggie though.
FYI: Books have moved the game off the 3.5 and have gone to 3/3.5 at +104 which helps over bettors. I couldn't want and my impatience got the better of me but, I still project 4 goals so the only thing this line move does is give me half my stake back if the game falls on 3.... a small risk for me to take playing the 3.5. However, anyone who wants to tail this pick, shop, you will find better than a 3.5 line.
Regards ... I'll be tweeting as usual during the matches.
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FYI: Books have moved the game off the 3.5 and have gone to 3/3.5 at +104 which helps over bettors. I couldn't want and my impatience got the better of me but, I still project 4 goals so the only thing this line move does is give me half my stake back if the game falls on 3.... a small risk for me to take playing the 3.5. However, anyone who wants to tail this pick, shop, you will find better than a 3.5 line.
Regards ... I'll be tweeting as usual during the matches.
PS .... if for whatever reason I see a 3 hung on this game before kickoff.... I will add another unit to the wager. no doubt.
They say in handicapping that when you develop and maintain a spreadhseet that has been profitable for you, to NOT bet it when it spits out a number is a complete waste. Why spend hours to keep your spreadsheets up to date if you aren't going to bet them. Sometimes it isn't about public perception ... although we are seeing a lot of public perception in the Man U line games.
Line moves early in the week are kep ... sharps hitting the big numbers where they find advantages ... you will be surprised how many late line moves finish the other way as casual bettors and all jump on any linupe news.
Anyone with half a betting brain new that Ferguson was going to make wholesale lineup changes for today's game. This was not new. Notice how the line moves have come since the lineup moves became official. Everyone likes to play follow the leader and for me, keeping solid power ratings is vital. I don't care who Ferguson starts ... if my spreadsheets say to expect so many goals then I will bet the over. (I've fine tuned my spreadsheets to sniff out over situations... that's just my style) Some people only bet home dogs, some people hunt out unders, for me, I have finetuned my systems and mathematical models to find overs.
At the end of the day, 75% of my models are MATHEMATICAL in their core foundation. The other 20% factors in current form and believe it or not, only 5% for lineups. Lineups can be over-rated. too many times we see massive line swings for a an absent player or two.
I can go on for pages about how I go about working out my calculations ... but at the end of the day, that's not what matters ... the results are what count.
Have a great day my friends and enjoy the matches, I have two monitors set up and will be watching both games in my basement with my double screen set up. My son and nephew are here with me today (being a holiday and all) and we look forward to some great football.... Nothing beats the beautiful game.
Cheers
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PS .... if for whatever reason I see a 3 hung on this game before kickoff.... I will add another unit to the wager. no doubt.
They say in handicapping that when you develop and maintain a spreadhseet that has been profitable for you, to NOT bet it when it spits out a number is a complete waste. Why spend hours to keep your spreadsheets up to date if you aren't going to bet them. Sometimes it isn't about public perception ... although we are seeing a lot of public perception in the Man U line games.
Line moves early in the week are kep ... sharps hitting the big numbers where they find advantages ... you will be surprised how many late line moves finish the other way as casual bettors and all jump on any linupe news.
Anyone with half a betting brain new that Ferguson was going to make wholesale lineup changes for today's game. This was not new. Notice how the line moves have come since the lineup moves became official. Everyone likes to play follow the leader and for me, keeping solid power ratings is vital. I don't care who Ferguson starts ... if my spreadsheets say to expect so many goals then I will bet the over. (I've fine tuned my spreadsheets to sniff out over situations... that's just my style) Some people only bet home dogs, some people hunt out unders, for me, I have finetuned my systems and mathematical models to find overs.
At the end of the day, 75% of my models are MATHEMATICAL in their core foundation. The other 20% factors in current form and believe it or not, only 5% for lineups. Lineups can be over-rated. too many times we see massive line swings for a an absent player or two.
I can go on for pages about how I go about working out my calculations ... but at the end of the day, that's not what matters ... the results are what count.
Have a great day my friends and enjoy the matches, I have two monitors set up and will be watching both games in my basement with my double screen set up. My son and nephew are here with me today (being a holiday and all) and we look forward to some great football.... Nothing beats the beautiful game.
Like I posted in another thread, Reading can score goals. I saw them twice this past season play and hung 3 goals on Man U back in December. Problem with Reading is their crappy defense...they always give up leads. I'm hammering this over...especially now that it's down to 3. Great analysis and write-up fever!
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Like I posted in another thread, Reading can score goals. I saw them twice this past season play and hung 3 goals on Man U back in December. Problem with Reading is their crappy defense...they always give up leads. I'm hammering this over...especially now that it's down to 3. Great analysis and write-up fever!
I surely didn't expect this result at Old Trafford.... Counting it as a loss ...I just don't see enough for any type of miracle finish.
So, 1-1 on the day, +.24 units ..... All units or partial units help in the long haul.....
Updating:
Covers Posted Soccer: 93-69 +51.37 units
Catch u all for Champions League play ..... FYI, Wenger has already stated in his press conference that keeping Bayern Munich off the scoresheet is his top priority for the Arsenal match ....
Again ... I'll take 1-1 with partial units in my pocket.... Later folks!!!!
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I surely didn't expect this result at Old Trafford.... Counting it as a loss ...I just don't see enough for any type of miracle finish.
So, 1-1 on the day, +.24 units ..... All units or partial units help in the long haul.....
Updating:
Covers Posted Soccer: 93-69 +51.37 units
Catch u all for Champions League play ..... FYI, Wenger has already stated in his press conference that keeping Bayern Munich off the scoresheet is his top priority for the Arsenal match ....
Again ... I'll take 1-1 with partial units in my pocket.... Later folks!!!!
fever: if u got the over 3.25 : u got half the stake back
I know ... but my bet went in before the line moved down and my models pegged 4 goals anyways so even if it didn't move down I would have still stuck with the 3.5. Oh well.
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Quote Originally Posted by abadboycali:
fever: if u got the over 3.25 : u got half the stake back
I know ... but my bet went in before the line moved down and my models pegged 4 goals anyways so even if it didn't move down I would have still stuck with the 3.5. Oh well.
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