I'm going to try a new system for soccer. The basis of the system is taking euro powerhouses (Bayern, PSG, man city, Liverpool, etc.) In the game after a loss/draw to an inferior opponent. For example, over the Weeknd PSG drew to Monaco, Bayern drew to Mochdenblach so PSG and Bayern will be plays on the AH on Wednesday. The idea behind this system will.be that euro powerhouses normally don't blow two games in a row against inferior opponents, especially of the game is a home game.
I'll track the plays and see how it goes
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I'm going to try a new system for soccer. The basis of the system is taking euro powerhouses (Bayern, PSG, man city, Liverpool, etc.) In the game after a loss/draw to an inferior opponent. For example, over the Weeknd PSG drew to Monaco, Bayern drew to Mochdenblach so PSG and Bayern will be plays on the AH on Wednesday. The idea behind this system will.be that euro powerhouses normally don't blow two games in a row against inferior opponents, especially of the game is a home game.
The logic makes sense to me given the general level of the talent on the top teams in most leagues versus other teams. In my mind, it might not flow as well in the EPL as the talent is more dispersed over the teams than other leagues. I.E., Liverpool to start the season with 2 draws and a loss; this system would have cost you money over the next two games but more than recouped on the last match which would work if one used the Martingale system of betting of doubling up after each loss (not advocating this system because not many of have access to unlimited funds).
Another thing that might help "tweak" the system is what is an inferior opponent. Would one have considered Man U inferior to Liverpool? On this year just on wins/losses, yes but numerically is that accurate? I don't have an answer but this tweak might be more valid with some sort of numerical way to assign how one is inferior. Mathematically I would assume there would be some sort of range from top to what is defined as inferior. This would require recalculation weekly after the results and all the correlations in between, so might be better to find some sort of power ranking that someone must be producing. On the flipside, you would also want to define who is superior by what metric and this could change as the season evolves.
Lastly, I would believe that there might be a correlation with the next match being home/away.
I am not criticizing, just trying to offer somethings to ponder as you develop this system. These might be further tweaks after you start the assessment but I believe the above might be beneficial over time; however, this is dependent upon the number. Please do keep this thread updated as I am keen to see how it works out. Having a spreadsheet or access to data to help come up %age wins/losses of this system would be really cool. As we have seen, history not always an indicator of the present as of late the books have gotten weird lines and historical trends have not held up well, this might be the great seismic shift with more gambling dollars in the system with potential of the "fix" (I do think there are odd things out there that occur and one must question then but I don't believe the overall system is "fixed" as I don't buy into the conspiracist mindset many have). If you need any help with this, give me a shout.
Thanks for putting this out, looking forward to the analysis.
"Borders frequented by trade seldom need soldiers." William Lytle Schurz
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@icemantbi
The logic makes sense to me given the general level of the talent on the top teams in most leagues versus other teams. In my mind, it might not flow as well in the EPL as the talent is more dispersed over the teams than other leagues. I.E., Liverpool to start the season with 2 draws and a loss; this system would have cost you money over the next two games but more than recouped on the last match which would work if one used the Martingale system of betting of doubling up after each loss (not advocating this system because not many of have access to unlimited funds).
Another thing that might help "tweak" the system is what is an inferior opponent. Would one have considered Man U inferior to Liverpool? On this year just on wins/losses, yes but numerically is that accurate? I don't have an answer but this tweak might be more valid with some sort of numerical way to assign how one is inferior. Mathematically I would assume there would be some sort of range from top to what is defined as inferior. This would require recalculation weekly after the results and all the correlations in between, so might be better to find some sort of power ranking that someone must be producing. On the flipside, you would also want to define who is superior by what metric and this could change as the season evolves.
Lastly, I would believe that there might be a correlation with the next match being home/away.
I am not criticizing, just trying to offer somethings to ponder as you develop this system. These might be further tweaks after you start the assessment but I believe the above might be beneficial over time; however, this is dependent upon the number. Please do keep this thread updated as I am keen to see how it works out. Having a spreadsheet or access to data to help come up %age wins/losses of this system would be really cool. As we have seen, history not always an indicator of the present as of late the books have gotten weird lines and historical trends have not held up well, this might be the great seismic shift with more gambling dollars in the system with potential of the "fix" (I do think there are odd things out there that occur and one must question then but I don't believe the overall system is "fixed" as I don't buy into the conspiracist mindset many have). If you need any help with this, give me a shout.
Thanks for putting this out, looking forward to the analysis.
What is an inferior opponent? That is a good question. For me, its subjective. Firstly, I would look at the difference in points. Second, I would look closely how the next opponent after a loss/draw is playing. For example, you bring up Man United. Yes, I would have considered them "inferior" because they were playing like garbage out of the gate, losing two games to weak teams. Did I expect Liverpool to win that game? Yes, and it would have been a play. Having said that, soccer (in Europe that is) is the sport with the biggest talent difference between the top and bottom teams. No question. Also, the rabid fanbases of these teams count for alot. When a big club blows a game, you know the fans will be on them right away to get back on track. We saw this with Liverpool. After the Man U loss, the fans got on them, they needed to make a statement and they did putting up 9 against Bournemouth.
One correction I have to make is that Bayern is NOT a play on Wednesday. Reason being, its a cup match. Will be a play on Saturday against Union Berlin
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What is an inferior opponent? That is a good question. For me, its subjective. Firstly, I would look at the difference in points. Second, I would look closely how the next opponent after a loss/draw is playing. For example, you bring up Man United. Yes, I would have considered them "inferior" because they were playing like garbage out of the gate, losing two games to weak teams. Did I expect Liverpool to win that game? Yes, and it would have been a play. Having said that, soccer (in Europe that is) is the sport with the biggest talent difference between the top and bottom teams. No question. Also, the rabid fanbases of these teams count for alot. When a big club blows a game, you know the fans will be on them right away to get back on track. We saw this with Liverpool. After the Man U loss, the fans got on them, they needed to make a statement and they did putting up 9 against Bournemouth.
One correction I have to make is that Bayern is NOT a play on Wednesday. Reason being, its a cup match. Will be a play on Saturday against Union Berlin
Those are all fair and how I would asses it as well. I was just wondering out loud if subjectivity could be taken out of the system with some math. Nothing is perfect but math does work when utilized properly. I was not doubting your logic, I like it and think at its most simple form, it is very possibly a great way to look at it. The math only helps remove the human error portion of it. I look forward to your assessment of the matches in place. Good hunting!
"Borders frequented by trade seldom need soldiers." William Lytle Schurz
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@icemantbi
Those are all fair and how I would asses it as well. I was just wondering out loud if subjectivity could be taken out of the system with some math. Nothing is perfect but math does work when utilized properly. I was not doubting your logic, I like it and think at its most simple form, it is very possibly a great way to look at it. The math only helps remove the human error portion of it. I look forward to your assessment of the matches in place. Good hunting!
What makes you think Monaco and Mönchengladbach are inferior teams??? Would you consider Fulham that almost beat Liverpool an inferior team coming from division 2???
What makes you think the books aren't going to just realist bayen and PSG as heavy favorites again???
Books will always list the powerhouses as heavy favorites, take Liverpool for example against crystal palace they were heavy favorites and they again almost lost even after the first screw up..... Start of the season is unpredictable in soccer
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@icemantbi
What makes you think Monaco and Mönchengladbach are inferior teams??? Would you consider Fulham that almost beat Liverpool an inferior team coming from division 2???
What makes you think the books aren't going to just realist bayen and PSG as heavy favorites again???
Books will always list the powerhouses as heavy favorites, take Liverpool for example against crystal palace they were heavy favorites and they again almost lost even after the first screw up..... Start of the season is unpredictable in soccer
Yes, good points. This is not going to hit at 100% rate I know this. But usually a good, well coached team will bounce back after a disappointing result. Again, what a powerhouse and a lesser team is something that you have to use judgment on. Definitely, some leagues have more parity than others (EPL for example) so you have to tread carefully as well.
Anyways, first play of this goes today. PSG off a disappointing draw on the weekend. Lets try it out, if it works great if not no worries.
PSG - 2 (+107)
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@Duckyboys
Yes, good points. This is not going to hit at 100% rate I know this. But usually a good, well coached team will bounce back after a disappointing result. Again, what a powerhouse and a lesser team is something that you have to use judgment on. Definitely, some leagues have more parity than others (EPL for example) so you have to tread carefully as well.
Anyways, first play of this goes today. PSG off a disappointing draw on the weekend. Lets try it out, if it works great if not no worries.
Start of the season is unpredictable!!, Chelsea right now are unpredictable I mean almost losing at home against west ham...really!?, Books realized this I bet not alot of ppl are back in ng Chelsea ML right now I couldn't believe -155 ML Chelsea @home
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@DestroyThePitch
Lmfao there is no system for soccer bud!!!
Start of the season is unpredictable!!, Chelsea right now are unpredictable I mean almost losing at home against west ham...really!?, Books realized this I bet not alot of ppl are back in ng Chelsea ML right now I couldn't believe -155 ML Chelsea @home
Going to try this today, Man City coming off a draw against Aston Villa, possibly due to looking ahead. Playing a very out of form Sevilla squad in CL action. Sevilla lost 3-0 to Barca at home, I have Man City at least in the same level of talent as Barca. I wasn't going to use champions league for this system, but I think this is a good spot.
Play: Man City -1.5
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@DestroyThePitch
No, I played the AH -1 line so it was a push.
Going to try this today, Man City coming off a draw against Aston Villa, possibly due to looking ahead. Playing a very out of form Sevilla squad in CL action. Sevilla lost 3-0 to Barca at home, I have Man City at least in the same level of talent as Barca. I wasn't going to use champions league for this system, but I think this is a good spot.
So Bayern -2 is a play under my system (two draws in Bundesliga. However, tread lightly. This game is sandwiched between the Inter game last Tuesday and Barca next week. No Mane today, Tell is up front in his debut only 17 years old.
Haven't put my bet in yet but for tracking purposes this is a play
Bayern -2
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So Bayern -2 is a play under my system (two draws in Bundesliga. However, tread lightly. This game is sandwiched between the Inter game last Tuesday and Barca next week. No Mane today, Tell is up front in his debut only 17 years old.
Haven't put my bet in yet but for tracking purposes this is a play
System takes it's first loss however I was right about Barca being the look ahead. The positive news is no way they don't win next two games against Augsburg and Leverkusen
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System takes it's first loss however I was right about Barca being the look ahead. The positive news is no way they don't win next two games against Augsburg and Leverkusen
Roma coming off two losses, including a trouncing at the hands of Udinese in their last Serie A game and a very dissapointing loss to Ludogrets in Europa League.
I see Roma bouncing back today
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Roma coming off two losses, including a trouncing at the hands of Udinese in their last Serie A game and a very dissapointing loss to Ludogrets in Europa League.
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