Man City are priced at 1.10 to win on the final day and by all accounts that should happen and they'll lift a record 4th straight title.
However, history shows that when Man City have to do it on the final day it doesn't always go to plan.
Everyone will remember their first title when they almost managed to blow it against a relegation bound QPR team down to 10 men - only for Aguero to win it with the final kick.
Fast forward to the next time the title came down to the final day and it was the 18/19 season when Liverpool trailed by 1 pt and Man City won 4-1 away to Brighton but did experience a scare going down 1-0.
Then again in 21/22 Liverpool trailed by a single pt and Aston Villa led 2-0 at the Ettihad with 75 minutes played, only for Man City to come roaring back and score 3 goals in the space of 5 minutes to seal it.
So there is certainly a reasonably sound precedent of Man City making these final day of the season title chases interesting. Their opponent West Ham may have nothing to play for, but no doubt they'll at least try to send their departing manager David Moyes out on a high, so are somewhat motivated to at least try and upset Man City's title win. I don't see that happening, but all-season Man City have shown a vulnerability to fast counter attacks both home and away and West Ham have that in abundance with the likes of Bowen, Antonio and Kudus running in behind. It's a formula that could see West Ham leading at some point.
Therefore I see value in the following...
West Hamto score first @ 5.50 West Ham / Man City HT/FT @ 24.00
Consider that the first bet would have paid out in all examples I presented, while the 2nd bet would have paid out in 2 of 3 situations.
In the event that this weekend goes exactly as the market is predicting I'll place a cover bet / insurance bet to get my money back on Man City -2.5.
Other bets I think offer value on the final day are... Bournemouth win @ 5.88 Luton win @ 2.84
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Man City are priced at 1.10 to win on the final day and by all accounts that should happen and they'll lift a record 4th straight title.
However, history shows that when Man City have to do it on the final day it doesn't always go to plan.
Everyone will remember their first title when they almost managed to blow it against a relegation bound QPR team down to 10 men - only for Aguero to win it with the final kick.
Fast forward to the next time the title came down to the final day and it was the 18/19 season when Liverpool trailed by 1 pt and Man City won 4-1 away to Brighton but did experience a scare going down 1-0.
Then again in 21/22 Liverpool trailed by a single pt and Aston Villa led 2-0 at the Ettihad with 75 minutes played, only for Man City to come roaring back and score 3 goals in the space of 5 minutes to seal it.
So there is certainly a reasonably sound precedent of Man City making these final day of the season title chases interesting. Their opponent West Ham may have nothing to play for, but no doubt they'll at least try to send their departing manager David Moyes out on a high, so are somewhat motivated to at least try and upset Man City's title win. I don't see that happening, but all-season Man City have shown a vulnerability to fast counter attacks both home and away and West Ham have that in abundance with the likes of Bowen, Antonio and Kudus running in behind. It's a formula that could see West Ham leading at some point.
Therefore I see value in the following...
West Hamto score first @ 5.50 West Ham / Man City HT/FT @ 24.00
Consider that the first bet would have paid out in all examples I presented, while the 2nd bet would have paid out in 2 of 3 situations.
In the event that this weekend goes exactly as the market is predicting I'll place a cover bet / insurance bet to get my money back on Man City -2.5.
Other bets I think offer value on the final day are... Bournemouth win @ 5.88 Luton win @ 2.84
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