Saturday Soccer Plays

Covers Soccer Posted Record: 117-84 +68.17 units

Everton v Manchester City over 2.5 -115

I tweeted this game out earlier this evening but have only recently found the time to write it up for the Covers gang. If you look around you can get a better price than I did with the game at -109 at some places I've checked.

What makes the game intriguing is that Everton are 7 points out of the 4^th spot in the EPL and a coveted spot into the Champions League.  Sitting in 7^th spot at the moment and tied with Liverpool and 2 points behind Arsenal, you know that they will want to push forward and try to get the full 3 points in this match.  At home, they can play any opponent tough as evidenced by the 25 goals in their 14 home matches.  The problem is at the back where they have allowed just a tad over a goal a game on average (17 goals in 14 home games) for a home game total goals average of 3.00. Everton have scored 2 or more goals in 9 of their 14 home games but on the flip side have only kept 2 clean sheets in those 14 games. I find it highly unlikely that they will keep Man City off the scoreboard today.

Then we have the visitors who have to still believe that they can make a run at league leaders United.  United is going to come out mighty pissed off and their 3 points against Reading are almost in the bag so City has nothing to lose by going all out for the 3 points in this one as they most certainly will, with Spurs a full 5 points back.  City has scored 20 goals in their 14 road games and allowed 13 for a road game average of 2.35.  They are 4^th in the league in goal output (scored 2 or more in 17 of their 28 games) so we know that can fill the back of the net if they get it clicking. City have only allowed 2 or more goals in their travels 3 times this season. 

Everton of late have played some high scoring home games including a 3-1 win over  Reading, 3-3 draw with Aston Villa and a 2-1 win over West Brom.  Finding the back of the net against a solid defensive side like City though will be tougher than those 3 opponents but I do handicap the Toffees to score in this game. Everton has seen 6 of their last 7 home games go over 2.5 and 10 of their 14 home games have seen 3 or more goals.

I’ve run my 4 spreadsheets on this game and at the outset would have wanted to bet City to win the game but one of my models spits out a 2-2 draw so I am off the side.  Also of note is that Manchester City skipper Roberto Mancini has lost more games to Everton’s boss David Moyes than any other manager in the EPL including the last 3 head to head at Everton. However, all my models point to a minimum of 3 goals so I will stick with the total.

Everton will go with their back up goaltender in this game following a season ending injury to their primary goalkeeper Howard. Backup man Jan Mucha has 2 appearances this season, a 3-1 win over Reading and a 3-0 loss to Wigan.  

On City’s side there is some concern over the fitness of City striker Tevez and latest reports are mixed for his status in this one.  I ran one of my spreadsheets with him out and still managed to get a 2-1 result. City is without striker Aguero and all my projections have been run without him in the line-up.

City haven’t allowed a goal in 4 games and yet the oddsmakers have made price the over 2.5 as the favourite. I don’t buy it. I think Everton snaps City’s goal at least once in this game and I am of the view that this will be a game full of chances as both teams hunt down the full 3 points. Protecting a draw really does nothing for these two.  I am inclined to bet my numbers and go with the over 2.5.