Posted:
#1
Big day on Wednesday - one game that means the world to me, as a native of Malmö and Sweden, this is when my patriotic side kicks in. The biggest match Swedish football have seen for 20 years or so - the stadium sold out in 30 minutes after the first leg finished and it's an incredible buzz around the city and the whole nation. Can Sweden get a team into the Champions League group stage finally? Chances are looking better than it has for many many years.
________________________
(1st Leg 2-1 Salzburg)
Malmö - Salzburg
Salzburg are the new public favorites to bet on due to their offensive approach regardless of the score. The first match in Austria finished 2-1 for Salzburg, a result which statistically mean that Malmö stand 51% chance of qualifying (studies show that losing 2-1 in the first away game sees the losing team turn it around at home 51% of the times)
Though Salzburg dominated the first match, it brings back memories from the recent opponent Malmö faced when Sparta Prague also dominated against Malmö in the home game and won 4-2. I remember the headlines being dark, complaining about how Swedish football is not ready, how weak it is etc. Prague were given the favorite stamp even when Malmö played at home, but the Swedes won the home game 2-0 and kept a clean sheet against a very offensive team, being carried by the 12th man - the crowd. Even the coach of Sparta Prague said after the game that he did not expect the atmosphere support that Malmö had and that it was certainly a factor for his teams players to take in.
Malmö are 3-3-0 (3 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses) in their last 6 European home games. What is more fascinating is that they have not conceded one single goal in these.
Salzburg are a very good team, no doubt. They are haunted by bad luck in playoff occasions though, something that Malmö have been trying to rub into the Austrian medias face. Here is when the mind games really matters. What we witnessed in Salzburg in the first leg was their pressure as soon as the opponent got the ball and allowed minimal time for the Swedes to set up a passing game. But the times Malmö managed to move the ball past this pressure, chances appeared every time. Not sure Salzburg can play the same high pressure style on the road, because they will play with fire once they fail to catch the ball on Malmö's half. The Austrians will be without the scorer from last match, defender Franz Schiemer. Also defender Andreas Ulmer and number one defender Martin Hinteregger is very doubtful.
Note that Red Bull have invested millions and millions into Salzburgs team, their squad is valued several times higher than Malmö's which is why they are favorites. A failure to advance against such a 'weak' team like Malmö would probably piss Red Bull off a little, after all the investments over the years. Pressure is all on Salzburg to perform. I am not sure they know what they are about to face in Malmö, the crowd, the underdog position that Malmö are in.. they really thrive in that.
I want to finish off with: The chant was powerful from 20 000 fanatics against Prague, buzzing environment, both young and old sang despite the 4-2 deficit "We know, we can, 2-0 for Malmö!" they sang against Prague in unison. And what happened? Prague were stunned and 2-0 it was. This time 23 000 fans can feel optimistic and sing "We know, we can, 1-0 for Malmö!" Better circumstances this time. Impossible is nothing.
Tail on your own risk, the price is too high regardless. You never see Malmö stand in +400 at home(!). I grab several options, I happily risk a couple of units on this game.
"The picks are based on my gut feeling, my experiences from the stadium, I have witnessed it myself. I have seen Malmö complete wonders before. The picks are also placed with a portion of what my heart wants, but that does not make the reality less likely"
Total risked (3.5 units)
1. Malmö +1 AH @ 1.80 (1/10)
2. Malmö PK @ 3.80 (1/10)
3. Malmö 1X @ 2.10 (1/10)
4. Malmö HT/FT X/1 @ 12.00 (0.5/10)
Regarding the play "4. Malmö HT/FT X/1 @ 12.00 (0.5/10)"
- I see a tight game, nervous approach for both teams which can likely see a draw in half time. Hopefully Malmö can grab the winner in the second half to set up a great price at +1100
This can either blow up in my face, or be a very nice day. Even if it blows up, 3.5 units is not the end of the world. I like the chances though.
Good luck to everyone.
________________________
(1st Leg 2-1 Salzburg)
Malmö - Salzburg
Salzburg are the new public favorites to bet on due to their offensive approach regardless of the score. The first match in Austria finished 2-1 for Salzburg, a result which statistically mean that Malmö stand 51% chance of qualifying (studies show that losing 2-1 in the first away game sees the losing team turn it around at home 51% of the times)
Though Salzburg dominated the first match, it brings back memories from the recent opponent Malmö faced when Sparta Prague also dominated against Malmö in the home game and won 4-2. I remember the headlines being dark, complaining about how Swedish football is not ready, how weak it is etc. Prague were given the favorite stamp even when Malmö played at home, but the Swedes won the home game 2-0 and kept a clean sheet against a very offensive team, being carried by the 12th man - the crowd. Even the coach of Sparta Prague said after the game that he did not expect the atmosphere support that Malmö had and that it was certainly a factor for his teams players to take in.
Malmö are 3-3-0 (3 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses) in their last 6 European home games. What is more fascinating is that they have not conceded one single goal in these.
Salzburg are a very good team, no doubt. They are haunted by bad luck in playoff occasions though, something that Malmö have been trying to rub into the Austrian medias face. Here is when the mind games really matters. What we witnessed in Salzburg in the first leg was their pressure as soon as the opponent got the ball and allowed minimal time for the Swedes to set up a passing game. But the times Malmö managed to move the ball past this pressure, chances appeared every time. Not sure Salzburg can play the same high pressure style on the road, because they will play with fire once they fail to catch the ball on Malmö's half. The Austrians will be without the scorer from last match, defender Franz Schiemer. Also defender Andreas Ulmer and number one defender Martin Hinteregger is very doubtful.
Note that Red Bull have invested millions and millions into Salzburgs team, their squad is valued several times higher than Malmö's which is why they are favorites. A failure to advance against such a 'weak' team like Malmö would probably piss Red Bull off a little, after all the investments over the years. Pressure is all on Salzburg to perform. I am not sure they know what they are about to face in Malmö, the crowd, the underdog position that Malmö are in.. they really thrive in that.
I want to finish off with: The chant was powerful from 20 000 fanatics against Prague, buzzing environment, both young and old sang despite the 4-2 deficit "We know, we can, 2-0 for Malmö!" they sang against Prague in unison. And what happened? Prague were stunned and 2-0 it was. This time 23 000 fans can feel optimistic and sing "We know, we can, 1-0 for Malmö!" Better circumstances this time. Impossible is nothing.
Tail on your own risk, the price is too high regardless. You never see Malmö stand in +400 at home(!). I grab several options, I happily risk a couple of units on this game.
"The picks are based on my gut feeling, my experiences from the stadium, I have witnessed it myself. I have seen Malmö complete wonders before. The picks are also placed with a portion of what my heart wants, but that does not make the reality less likely"
Total risked (3.5 units)
1. Malmö +1 AH @ 1.80 (1/10)
2. Malmö PK @ 3.80 (1/10)
3. Malmö 1X @ 2.10 (1/10)
4. Malmö HT/FT X/1 @ 12.00 (0.5/10)
Regarding the play "4. Malmö HT/FT X/1 @ 12.00 (0.5/10)"
- I see a tight game, nervous approach for both teams which can likely see a draw in half time. Hopefully Malmö can grab the winner in the second half to set up a great price at +1100
This can either blow up in my face, or be a very nice day. Even if it blows up, 3.5 units is not the end of the world. I like the chances though.
Good luck to everyone.
0
So I think Malmö has a shot. They need some luck and a good goal keeper, but I'm quite sure they will get their chances to score. And rosenberg is cold as ice and I would trust him more than any striker from Salzburg (really loved him during his time in bremen).
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