Talon's World Cup Qualifiers

Turkey - Romania
Turkey Win @ 1.74 / -135

This is already a crucial match for Turkey. Romania and The Netherlands are leading the group - after winning their first two matches - with Turkey 3 points behind. Hungary is tied with the Turkish team and are playing an away game against Estonia. The Netherlands are facing Andorra next, so there's no question they will stay on top with an extra win. Turkey is under some pressure early on in the qualifying campaign. If they cannot pick up a win against Romania, it's going to be a battle for the second place. A draw here isn't enough. The Turkish squad is as good as healthy and only miss regular defender Hakan Balta from Galatasaray. Hamit Altintop is back on time and playmaker Nuri Sahin got his first matches at Liverpool, making a good impression with 3 goals and 4 assists in his first 5 appearances. Romania will likely play on the counter attack and settle for a point here. This Turkey team plays a lot on ball possession and with the home crowd behind them, they should take the three points. Turkey has failed to qualify for the previous two World Cup tournaments and know how important this match is to stay in the race. I think this is the most talented squad they ever had. The last time Romania was present at a World Cup tournament was back in 1998. Romania was unlucky to qualify after this, as they lost a play off match match against Slovenia for the 2002 World Cup and were drawn into a tough group (with The Netherlands & Czech Republic) for 2006. The Romanians couldn't qualify for the World Cup 2010 either and seen some important first team players retire (like Cristian Chivu, Mirel Radoi etc). They went from a dangerous outsider to a team nobody expects something from. Experienced first goalkeeper Bogdan Lobont will miss the Turkey clash due to injury while Turkey's first goalie Volkan Demirel (who missed Turkey's last qualifying match) made his return in the team. Romania has played the two first qualifying matches with striker Ciprian Marica and he is likely to also start against Turkey. Marica has made just one league appearance for his club Schalke 04 this season (back in august) and scored twice in a German Cup meeting with third division club Saarbrucken. He scored once in an away match in Estonia (0-2). This same Estonia team got defeated by Turkey (3-0) last month. I'm taking the Turkey ML and I'm expecting Turkey to pressure Romania from the first minute on, so I might be taking the Turkey Halftime wager too (at 2.35 / +135 odds at the moment). GL.

Excellent Analysis Talon, I'm riding with ya on this one brother, BOL

Taloon  BOL 

Gl was on that one as well. GL All in wc games. Have a pretty big card coming out! 

Thansk for the insight Talon - Going to go quite heavy on Turkey/Germany to win. Any thoughts on the ireland germany game ?

SlicerDicer
Infantilus
badgersfan
andycee

Republic of Ireland - Germany
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.83 / -120
(1:0) Handicap Germany @ 2.20 / +120

The boys in green had a good run at the 2002 World Cup and almost made their way to the quarter finals, but lost in the round of 16 on penalties against Spain. This was the last time they have qualified for the World Cup tournament. In their history they have only managed to do it twice before 2002 (back in 1994 and 1990). They were in a play off match vs France for the 2010 World Cup, but got robbed in extra time when Thierry Henry kept the ball in play by a handball and made the assist for France's winning goal. Ireland has started their new qualifying campaign with a hard fought away win over Kazakhstan (1-2). Both Ireland goals came at the last minute of the match. One of the goals was scored from the penalty spot, by veteran Robbie Keane. The captain, most capped active player on the team and Ireland's all-time top scorer (54 goals) - is ruled out of the Germany match after he picked up an injury at training a few days ago. Keane has scored twice as many goals as the entire Ireland squad combined. Germany, ofcourse, is the heavy favorite and have one of the most talented teams in the world. Germany is still without striker Mario Gomez, but his Bayern Munich teammate Bastian Schweinsteiger made his return in the squad. Germany has won all 10 of their qualifying matches for Euro 2012. 8 of these were won by more than one goal. Germany has scored in 24 consecutive matches. From Germany's last 28 matches, 24 went over 2.5 goals. Ireland has conceded the most goals at Euro 2012 (9 in just 3 matches).

Love the analysis on the IRE/GER play

kaponofor3

Great analysis. 

 

Great stuff as per usual Talon - im with you on turkey/germany dooble

hey talon, the turks need to win,but can they actually win? totally different thing, just saying.. romania +1 might be the safer bet just saying, i could be wrong .. 

composite
andycee

bomba-t - Turkey is a totally different team compared to the one when Guus Hiddink was still their coach. While everyone thought Hiddink would change the tactics of the Turkish team, he mostly played on safe with a defensive approach. This Turkish team has a lot of talented and attacking minded players, so a switch of tactics is just what this team needed. Avci (Turkey's new coach) did just that and recently Turkey is becoming a more dangerous side again. They are playing a lot on ball possesion and are creating chances more easily now. I've seen their opening group match against The Netherlands, which they lost 2-0 in Amsterdam. Even though they didn't score, they were playing really well and very offensive. They hit the crossbar twice and had a few other good opportunities to score. The Netherlands scored their second goal in injury time, so if Turkey had a little more luck earlier on, they would've gotten a point or even a surprising away win. As I said earlier, Romania isn't the same team as it was some years ago. Some important players have recently retired and at the moment they don't have the same quality in the squad to replace them. They have won against Estonia and Andorra, but these are the weakest teams in the group and knew they would finish last before the campaign even started (Turkey just defeated Estonia last month as well). Piturca (Romania's coach) will field a defensive side tomorrow and will fight for a point, but with the way Turkey has been playing lately I think they get the 3 points. The keyplayers for Turkey are in form at the right time, Emre Belozoglu got two assists in his last two matches, Sahin is doing well at Liverpool (see my first post) and striker Umut Bulut has scored 7 goals in his first 5 matches of the season. Romania is having some problems in their last line, right back Matel (who played in Romania's first two qualifying games) is injured and they will probably switch centre back Sebastian Tamas to RB. First goalie Lobont is out. Turkey at home, a near fully fit squad, an attacking team with the right players in form. Just some reasons I like this play and think they get the win.

great insight talon, may you have a profitable weekend

Was already on Germ O2.5, so glad to see you on this as well, only 2 plays for me, so let's get'm both

alright then, maybe im just bitter.. cause they ruined my 100 bet to win 19k last time out, they lost to austria as fave.. i had then brazil,argentina,greece,belgium..it still sucks to be ruined by a fave thanks anyway best of luck talon

and by the way i'm planning this parlays portugal,belgium, greece, denmark.. any thoughts? TIA

turkey 

GL nice write ups

good writeups talon gl

Thanks for thee great writeups Talon. Very helpful.

the odds beg you to take turkey

Romania is a really good team, with a great potential to get a draw or a win

bol to all

I enjoy the write-up, and bet Turkey.  Hopefully they pull it out.

oh turks almost put it in great save by romania

We need a miracle last 30 minutes for the Turks

bomba - sorry bro, just came back - didn't lock any other bet in.
Matte from Europe

DJ

Pro

jsab

Montecarlo23 yeah that's the way it went :)

duke8628

kap

Turkey Win
Pathetic performance from Turkey today, no creativity at all and some horrible passing. Still can't figure out why Demirel was rushing out just before the Romanians scored. Already 6 points behind in their group, nearly impossible to qualify. After playing so well in the first two matches, this was painful to watch - just when you thought they had their stuff together, a total letdown.

Germany over 2.5
Atleast the Germans keep doing what they are supposed to do, hitting their 25th Over 2.5 goals in 29 matches.

(1:0) Handicap Germany
Germany -1.5 goals. Gotta love this German side, 0-5 after an hour of play.