Covers Posted Soccer: 76-53 +47.34 units
I was hoping to get a better line by game time and I don't think I'll get better than 2-2.5 (2.25) after my main book moved this down from 2 + money earlier in the day.
Atletico Madrid v Sevilla over 2/2.5 -115 2.3 units to win 2
My power numbers make this game end on 3 total goals in ALL my simulations. I have statistical validation as well.
Atletico Madrid hasn't conceded in 5 cup games but scored 10 for an average of 2 goals per game and Sevilla has 12 goals in 5 games for an average of 2.4.
However, I've also factored into my spreadsheet results from the last 5 head to head games in all competitions which saw results of 4-0 (AM), 0-0, 1-1, 2-2 and 3-1 (Sev). 3 of the last 5 flew over today's posted total.
When I factor this with Sevilla's cup games which have seen 7 of the last 8 go over the toal of 2.5 and both teams having explosive power when they chose to attack, then it solidified the play for me.
My 4 projection models make the game 2-1, 2-1, 2-1 and 3-1 Atletico Madrid. As a result, I'm betting my numbers against the house numbers knowing full well that the betting public is looking very hard at Atletico Madrid's defensive numbers and doubting that Sevilla can score at all in this fixture. My analysis says that they are good for a goal so we shall see.
Remember, while Atletico has kept opponents off the scoresheet in their last 5 copa games, Sevilla has scored 3 or more goals in 4 of their 6 copa games.
Good luck my friends.
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