2012-13 Covers Posted Soccer: 169-141 +57.79 units
1. Nigeria v Uruguay over 2.5 +108 2 units
Right off the bat, don’t think for a second that this Nigerian squad looked organized in their 6-1 win over Tahiti. In fact, if you watched the game you would have seen how sloppy they were around the opposition net and how they needed a couple of lucky bounces in order to get the score that high. That is not to say that they don’t have skill up front, perhaps they just started goofing around after they established a large lead but it wasn’t a perfect game. Tahiti was able to beat them on a set piece and believe it or not, Tahiti had a couple of other scoring chances which would have made the score line more respectable.
Nothing but a win for Uruguay will do for them today. They need 3 points. If they fail to secure the full 3 and for instance, this game should end in a draw then they would still trail Nigeria by 3 points headed into their final game and we can’t rule out a low-level, low intensity draw played out between Spain/Nigeria when they meet. Nigeria knows too that securing a win here would secure them the 2nd spot in this group entering their game with Spain.
Louis Suarez is one of the best strikers in the world. Cavani is also a potent striker and both are playing with watchful eyes on them as they are both in the midst of transfer rumours and putting in good performances would help their market value. The option of using Forlan in a 4-3-3 out of the gate or saving him until he is needed and starting with a 4-4-2 like they did against Spain is possible.
Uruguay barely touched the ball v Spain but they showed how dangerous they were from spot kicks when Suarez buried a beauty near the full time whistle. Nigeria plays a physical game and I expect there to be a few dead ball opportunities for Uruguay.
Nigeria has been on a phenomenal run of form, going almost a year (19 matches) since losing an international match. I handicap them to score a goal in this contest and give them an overall power rating of 1.24 for this match. I give Uruguay a 2.10 rating for this match for a total of 3.34. The Spreadsheet runs concur as my 4 models give me 2-1 Uruguay, 2-1 Uruguay, 2-2 and 2-1 Nigeria. (my spreadsheets run different formations and rosters (player ratings) that the teams are known to use to get a good idea of probable outcomes) My models gave me a 2-2 score line with Forlan in the lineup and with the team going 4-3-3. The fact that only 2 of my score projection models gave me Uruguay as the winner though keeps me off of the side-bet. Otherwise I would have backed my lean on Uruguay to win and I still think they do get the W but I don’t veer from my power ratings/models.
Expect possession to be even today or perhaps slightly in Uruguay’s favor. It looks like the team will go out with the same roster that they did in game one. (that spreadsheet model spat out a 2-1 final for Uruguay). In either case, I don’t anticipate a clean sheet in this game).
Both teams will play for the win and go for goals. A “nill” result won’t help anyone given the goal differential that will be needed should these teams draw for 2nd in the group. Uruguay has the edge at the striker position but Nigeria can really spread the field well in their 4-3-3 attack minded formation.
This one will be fun. I’m not saying that it will be as fun as Italy and Japan were to watch but there are enough skill players on the pitch today to make this an entertaining game in which I expect many chances for both teams. Execution and finish will be key but chances should be plenty.
good luck
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