Tuesday Champions League Action

Covers Posted Soccer YTD: 45-29 +34.76 units

Bate v Lille over 2.5 +100 2 units

My mathetmatical models place this game at over an 85% chance of hitting 3 goals with 2-1 being the most probable outcome.

Lille, pretty much out of the competition has nothing to play for. These "relaxed" teams often pose the bigger problems for the teams like Bate who are hanging on tooth and nail to get into the next round.  Bate would love to take the full 3 points and in fact, would need the full 3 points in order to stay in the hunt for the elimination round. But, because Lille will come in relaxed and with no pressure, they need to be good for a goal. Given that I don't see Bate losing this game, the 2-1 scoreline looks extremely attractive.

The only reason I haven't bet Bate to win though is that I am not fully convinced and Lille might want to at least go out with some respect after getting humiliated by Bayern Munich in the last go around. a draw (2-2) is probable and one of my projections made this game 1-1.

Therefore, better to stick with my mathematical model that makes 2-1 the most likely outcome and take a shot at the over 2.5 getting even money.

I will be back later with the rest of the games I'm betting but today looks like a very CAUTIOUS day. There is so much that could happen. With the group lead secured, Man U will be fielding a young squad with many regulars staying home.  Again, with nothing to play for, despite the fact they should lose to a more hungry team, relaxed squads playing squads in search of points can be dangerous.

Let me examine lineups and get back to you guys later. Also, I have a feeling that Juventus CAN fall at home today to Chelsea. they were fortunate to gain a draw in the away meeting and look like a tired team to me as evidened by their recent run of less than stellar form in Serie A. Then again, Chelsea has struggled of late as well but in my view, on paper, Chelsea has the better all around squad. It's Juve's amazing home field advantage that has kept me off any bets thus far ... the 2.75 goals is a bit much at first glance, with 2.5 being a line I would have hoped for (not going to lay stupid juice to buy the 2.5 line so I want to wait and see how the money comes in.

For now, let's play the early game and we'll take it from there.

Talk to you all in a bit.

Cheers

Yuck ... I have never seen a team so desperate for a win play so poorly. Two early goals for the underdog and 10 men down for the visitor and you would think Bate would come out blazing in the second half. They played like a team that spent the night out drinking last night. Inexcusable and shows how classless they are and why many teams shouldn't even be in CL.

Anyways ,,, we pull our socks up and move on to the late action which for today is very difficuly to call.

BY THE WAY ... I see this line moving up so grab it now ... MAN CITY V REAL MADRID OVER 3 -106 for tomorrow. I have 3 units on that game. All my mathematical models place the game at over 3 goals and these two teams are more than capable of producing it in what has been the most exciting group in my opinion. So, place it early becuase I think we might see 3.25 by game time.

AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.....

I have leans ... waiting for confirmation of lineups and formations ... I'll have them up by 2:30 ... and yes ... I'm a supersticious bettor .. find me one gambler who isn't ... I hate CALLING games until the final whistle blows or the result is ACTUALLY in the bag ... let's leave the congrats out until after the games.

bakemcbride .. thanks bud ... I hae no reason to STOP posting. lol .. shit happens.  Any regular bettor knows.

GIVEN THE LACK OF TIME BEFORE KICK-OFF, Here's what I've added:

Bayern v Valencia over 2.5 -103 to win 2 units

Watch that line drop for the total in the Chelsea match and keep watching.  Torres likely to start on the bench and Chelsea looks to play for the single point starting with a 4-5-1 formation.  A draw does them just fine.  Currently at 2.75, IF that total goes to 2.5 I'm on the over hard for 2 units.  Not worthy based on my models to play it at 2.75.

passing on everything else ... just the Bayern Munich over ... Saving my ammo for WED where I already have a few singled out ... one posted earlier in this thread.

Cheers!