UEFA Champions League

Question

HJK-HB Torshavn over 2.5, 3 -104 (20.8 units) Kalju Nomme &#x2B;0.5, 1 &#x2B;102 (15 units)

SettleDownSpaz · Accepted Answer

Basel &#x2B;162 (20 units) Olympiakos-Plzen over 2.5 -112 (33.6 units)

SettleDownSpaz · Answer

HJK-HB Torshavn over 2.5, 3 -104 (20.8 units) Kalju Nomme &#x2B;0.5, 1 &#x2B;102 (15 units)

SettleDownSpaz · Answer

Sarajevo DNB first half DNB &#x2B;280 (5 units) The New Saints-Feronikelli over 2.5 Even (20 units)

specimen24 · Answer

GL today Settle.   hope all is well. went lightly but made a few plays.  the over with the Wales match appears solid.

CantPickAWinner · Answer

what does DNB stand for?

SettleDownSpaz · Answer

Spec - thanks my friend, glad you&#x2019;re getting thoughts up for CL/EL.  Always look forward to the research and the subtle (or not so subtle sarcasm) CPAW - Draw No Bet.  Basically just another way for oddsmakers to lure us in.  I thought Sarajevo was going to around in the first half, but didn&#x2019;t want to miss out on a 1-0 lead for the home side.  DNB gives you odds in between a win and a draw.  Basically paying for insurance.  If draw comes in, bet is no action

bda5star · Answer

Draw no bet means exactly what the name says. If it’s a draw “no bet” meaning void.

If the team you betting on wins you win the odd

If the team you betting on draws you get a push

If the team you betting on loses you lose the wager

Hope that helps.

Thanks for all your insight spaz

bda5star · Answer

Additionally imo, I think draw no bet and win draws are the most profitable long term strategies in football.

SettleDownSpaz · Answer

bda - I think it can be a very lucrative strategy, kind of like option trading, but you need to be diligent and patient. We'd all rather win a ML than a DNB and often times, people can't stick to the DNB strategy because of that

2-3-1 (w-d-l) +22.5 units

Partizani Tirana +0.5 -118 (17.7 units)

Partizani Tirana first half DNB +155 (6 units)

Qarabag, a perennial participant in the UCL, having represented their league every year since 2014. This feels like one of those matches where they'll be happy with a 1-0 win and will settle on a 1-1 draw to head back home and settle things there. Over their last 7 UCL road matches, Qarabag has only led at halftime once. The 1h DNB is worth a nibble

Back with the rest in a bit....

SettleDownSpaz · Answer

Sheriff -1.5 -103 (15.45 units)Saburtalo&#x27;s first whiff of UCL and they won&#x27;t be welcomed with open arms in Moldova.  Sheriff seasoned pros of the UCL, but in previous years they&#x27;ve really done themselves in by not getting better results at home. An opportunity to change all that today and I think the discrepancy in class will carry the goal line.

SettleDownSpaz · Answer

Ferencvaros-Ludogorets Draw &#x2B;205 (4 units)Ferencvaros-Ludogorets BTTS -112 (8.96 units)This just feels like a 1-1 draw.  Basically, playing a hunch, but I&#x27;m not big on betting exact scores - it gives off this overconfidence, but I respect I don&#x27;t see things with 100% precision.  Ludogorets will be content to take this one home with a point and an away goal.  Ferencvaros might not have much say in swinging the outcome if Ludogorets parks the bus a bit.

CantPickAWinner · Answer

Thanks Spaz I completely agree I like the safety of getting your money back if it draws but still get plenty of value if the team wins. I just had a brain fart and couldn&#x27;t figure out what the acronym DNB might stand for lol

SettleDownSpaz · Answer

Going to painfully pass on the Dundalik match..

Linfield-Rosenborg over 2.5 +128 (15 units)

Linfield over 0.5 +135 (8 units)

Rosenborg should win and should score and should should should, but... they're also currently 7th in their league table. Something hasn't been right with them this campaign and historically they haven't done well away from home in international competition. Taking a few shots at + money odds

specimen24 · Answer

a little late but GL today Settle

had ssome time, figured id add my $.02 on this topic.

regarding that 'DNB' thing. personally, thy mind is 'wired' differently. i think its a 'sucker' bet. and definitely not something anyone should be doing long term at least not in regards to the prices stated above; you cant leave a 280 sitting on the table with nothing in return if it hits. if must, just split the risk iin half and take the win + draw options. if they lose outright then you lose the same amount as you would the full ride with that dnb wager. if the draw hits youd still end up on '+' side. if they win outright then your prices are severely watered down.

in my melon if im confident enough for a such a large dog to keep a match close ill just go for the 'w' (or at the very least get a nice return on the draw option) if it doesnt hit ur not going to get taken up the creek with juice and can easily make up for it.

this is also why i cannot stand juiced +1/2 HCs, ill do them once in a while but if they get the win it drives me insane even if it does cash in cause i know ive lost a lot of value NOT taking the outright. whether you want to call it personal preference or strategy i dont know..... but i cannot leave a 300 hanging there in a match where im thinking its going to be close to start with.

SettleDownSpaz · Answer

Spec - well said my friend. The DNB has a time and a place, but by no means is it a strategy in my opinion. However, just because that particular bet wins doesn’t equate to a well played investment. As you note if the team you took on the DNB outright wins, then you’re leaving a ton of coin off your stack. In a way, it’s scared money.

HB-HJK BTTS -128 (19.2 units)

I likely would not have played this at -130 or higher, and while I lean over 2.5, I’m not going to be holding dessert when HJK decides to leave after dinner tied 1-1. HB scores and allows a ton of goals at home and i think HJK will flex some vulnerability on the road with such a big aggregate margin

SettleDownSpaz · Answer

Short on time here, missed the opener, Riga-Dundalik. Think the Irish boys advance, may get involved at half-time

AIK-Ararat-Armenia BTTS - Yes +160 (10 units)

Linfield over 0.5 +123 (15 units)

CFR Cluj to Advance +130 (15 units)

Piast Gliwice-BATE over 2.5 +1238 (15 units)

SettleDownSpaz · Answer

adding... Dundalik &#x2B;190 (10 units)Halftime, tied 0-0

SettleDownSpaz · Answer

8-4-7 &#x2B;37.75 units

specimen24 · Answer

nicely done Settle.

Claret Jug is

now lets see how they all do when the wind is blowing with later tee times. sweat our butts off for Francesco to make the cut, which is all you want to see after the first 2 rounds anyways. going to see if i can find some value with 3rd round matchups.

SettleDownSpaz · Answer

BigD

Spec - Molinari made a move, but the hunted were too far ahead and didn’t give much back. Nice to see Lowry hold on to one, but maybe that’s my Irish bias

Back on the international pitch..

Olympiacos +192 (8 units)

The New Saints +1.5 +112 (10 units)

PSV-Basel over 3 -113 (22.6 units)

Basel +1 -117 (23.4 units)

specimen24 · Answer

Settle, pardon for lateness, havent been around much and getting ready for thy sabbatical ad escape humanity for a few weeks :) small "problem" though... some of these leagues starting in 1st week of August. cazzo!! this is getting to be waaaay too early (sigh) and already have a few futures lined up. Italy stuff can wait.

regarding golf. Francesco = too little, too late. but hes been the gift that keeps on giving for me so cant really complain. darn close to another top 10 finish and tho was a small amt i did nab that final round low score.

but ya know the thing with these 'golf pros' Settle - you may or may not agree with me - but some of these guys with their high tech videos to figure out stuff with their swings, have personal trainers/aerobics/fitness instructors, dieticians, pay out 5 digit fees to sports psychiatrists to help them figure out whats going on up there in their melons.

and along comes these Irish lads. Lowry & McDowell wont be beating anyone in a footrace anytime soon; and even grandpa Clarke pulls out the lighter and takes a few puffs right there smack in the middle of the fairway. whom the heck needs a psychiatrist? just take a few puffs, calm those nerves down and we're set to go. im sure a few would order a few cold ones delivered to them if PGA would let it.

last year one of those British lads (forgot whom), in an interview after his round was asked what changes he made which account for his low score that round, replied: "i had a wee bit too much at the pub last night, forced me to increase my focus" i love that stuff.

it wasnt THAT long ago where there were less than 12 clubs in a caddys bag, right? some of them looked like they were really struggling with all that weight.

kind of snubs their noses at the newer 'over-analytical' generation or whatever.

SettleDownSpaz · Answer

Picked up up a few skittles yesterday. Late to the lab today, so missed some better pricing on some of these, but isn happens

Celtic-Kalju Nomme under 4 -101 (20.2 units)

Dundalik +170 (15 units)

Dundalik-Qarabag over 1.2, 2 -112 (22.4 units)

Crvena Zvezda-HJK 0ver over 2.5, 3 -104 (31.2 units)

Crvena Zvezda -1.5, 2 -108 (21.6 units)

SettleDownSpaz · Answer

Kalju Nomme &#x2B;2 -110 (22 units)

WCI · Answer

&#xA; &#xA;Bang! Bang! Thanks Settle, blindly tailed. Quite large too, so thanks buddy, I owe ya a drink or puff

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