WC 2022 futures....

@docpj72

 I’m probably the biggest Spec fan on here. I’ve been following dude since like 2015-2016 with italian soccer. dude is money.

back against the wall. we gotta slam the shit out of netherlands. #FORZA!!

BUMP THIS MAN

Best soccer capper on earth!!!

if spec says “he’s jumping all over this one” it’s a slamma ramma

Nice call on the Dutch, Spec! Hope all is well my friend 

Nice call on holland, my friend, I’m not gonna watch much till the final, it’s more like a scripted theatre, and it reminds me of CL , all the regulars and public teams go thru to KO stage, I think Argentina have a good chance to reach final, let’s see

good luck 

Block appreciate the kind words but id stop a long ways short at that 'earth' thing.
doc hope all is well and thanks for stopping by
"windy" as always. decided to post some stuff in here so can check this place as well. hope all is well with the fam and things getting back to normal out there.
yoro, as always.  hope all is well and similar thoughts. until the 3rd round just havent been making too many plays, not needing to. ill comment below on that 'scripted' thought

have some time and will just update the tourney stuff as well as some of KO rounds

yoro, regarding that 'scripted' comment. one of the biggest mistakes people make coming into KOs is basing their plays on a teams performance in Group stages. 'they scored blah blah blah', ' their offense/defense has blah blah blah'. every two years between euros and the WC its the same stupid thing. during euros everyone complaining abt Lions and how theyre a great fade and look where they ended up. ditto 4 years ago with France, then Portugal not beating anyone on way to title. and it goes on and on.
the situation is different, the opponent is different. formations, strategy, and players KEENLY aware of yellow card suspensions. and most importantly... motivation as well. bang in 5,6,7 goals in your opener and you dont need to do a damn thing the next few games cause of the tiebreaker rules. the whole point is to put self in best position to advance.  so its not really 'scripted', just seems that way. 

heres what was discussed . took a chance with the first one this afternoon.  

France/Poland - #2 of the juiced up favs this round. 10 of the 17 havent covered so can get a split with pretty much the same plays as the matches are similar.
thoughts: for some reason I kind of like this one more than the Gaucho match. media keeps talking about Mbappes/Les Bleus speed but that only works when the opponent has thoughts of pushing forward. speed isnt as effective when the pitch is shortened and judging from Michs interviews hes going to royally park the bus and try to extend this match for as long as possible. its basically the only chance they have anyway. but 'planning' and 'doing' are two entirely different things. on the '+' sie.. i think the rest of the planet now realizes what we've known the past 6 years...... Woj is a pretty good back there - and being tutored by Gigi for several years has put him amongst the best in europe.he IS THE reason Poland is still playing.
and thats also what I have a big problem with, when your GK is making all these fantastic saves and stopping PKs? .... means the backline blows chunks. mentioned after their first match at how suprised we were of Polands lack of speed and has since become worse, which creates a ton of shifting in the back, which creates space. and France punishes space; so I agree with most in that this is one HC Im not too thrilled to be backing so im staying away from the sides. especially since its juiced. IF Les Bleus eventually take the lead, Poland will have no other choice than to send bodies forward and that will be a big problem for them. so 2nd half O1.5 @+104 and tossing a little more on that.

however..... Didier. for all the success Les Bleus have had the past 5 years, hes almost been predictable in certain ways, first of all --- if you want to include 2 euros and the previous WC since hes been there - Les Bleus have held the lead at the half in just 6 of their 20 games to date. (and theyve actually conceded the first goal in 5 of their past 7 from the recent euros and this WC). as some have mentioned and I agree, one of the biggest differences between Samba boys and Les Bleus is Brazil struggles after getting punched in mouth first. France? they tend to not start playing till they get punched in mouth and the already have the hardware to prove it. so going to toss a little on Poland to score first + France win @+720 for fun. and Poland +1/2 @-105 (1st half).

Englnd/Senegal  - i think Arthur has this one covered.  (laughing). the ONLY thing Id like to add is the key stat for me, the Lions are/should own 60+ possession. and when they hit that number, theyll figure it out eventually. might not always be pretty. might not always satisfy their fans. but theyll figure it out. Lions -1 @-103
Lions/Senegal O3.5 cards @+108 CAF side is going to hack away at Lions MF at every run towards the box. and Lions dont back down to anyone, theyll get their fair share of warnings.

GL to all 

lost writeups running late and no time. heres the 3rd day for R16:

Japan/Croatia winner in xtra time @+520, in PKs @+450; O3.5 cards @-127
Brazil/Korea O1.5 @-102 (2nd half) a fairly strong play

GL to all 

You are insane my friend. Been here for a long time and you are always one of the main reasons why I stick around. Great calls again! Looking forward to the rest bro.

@specimen24

 Anything for Spain/Morocco and Swiss/Portugal ?

Thanks buddy.  

senk appreciate it. hope all is well with self/fam.  

Block    

those props with Poland was silly close.  and wasnt exactly expecting Samba to have a 4-0 advantage at the break. 

have had ears pinned back on this one fer a bit of time. if blows up in face so be it. 

Spain -1 @+104 (decided to make this big play), and toss some on the -1.5 @+175
O3.5 cards @-107 - Fernando getting the call again

not in mood to give back everything from Croats win, decided to have fun with the final match and simply enjoy it, as long as btts hits we'll break even at worst:
Portugal/Switz btts @-103, btts + draw @+380
split risk in half and tossed some on Portugal/Switz either advance ET @+540, PKs @+470

GL to all 

@specimen24

 thoughts on friday/weekend plays?

thanks buddy - keep it up.

Block  major holiday yesterday (actually, the entire week)  havent had much time.  a wee-bit late but will put up thoughts/plays for the Qtrs below.  

update everything first:

Group A:
Qatar to concede in all their matches @-117 (W) +3
Netherlands 2nd half goals O3.5 @+115 (groups) (L) -3

Group B: *USA
England U 5.5 goals @-139 (Groups) (L) -2.78
Iran to qualify @+300, Iran eliminated in R16 @+600 (L) -3.00, -2.00
Iran total attempts on target: U8.5 @-120 (groups) (L) -2.40
USA total conceded O3.5 @-120 (groups) (L) -2.40
-12.58

Group C:
Poland O3.5 goals @-118 (groups), to advance @-110 (L, W) -3.5, +3.0
Lewandowski O1.5 @-111 (groups) (L) -2.2
Saudi Arabia O1.5 goals @+120 (W) +3.6
+.84

Group D:
Danes to score in all matches: Yes @+130 (groups) (L), advance to Qtrs @+200 (L) -3.0, -2.0
Australia to concede in every match @+105 (L) -300
-8.0

Group E:
Germany O5.5 goals @-118 (groups) (W) +3.0
Gnabry O1.5 goals @+149 (groups) (L) -1.0
Japan O2.5 goals @-163 (groups) (W) +3.0
Spain to win group @-115 (L) -3.45
+1.55

Group F: *Belgium
Canada to concede in all matches @-122 (W) +3.00
Morocco O3.5 pts @+130 (groups) (W), Morocco to qualify @+200 (W W) +3.9, +6.0
Belgium O 5.5 goals @-115 (groups) (L) -2.3
+10.60

Group G: *Switzerland
Serbia O3.5 goals @+103 (W) +3.09
Serbia O3.5 pts @-138 (groups) (L) -4.14
Serbia to reach Qtrs @+500 (L) -2.00
Switzerland to score in all matches @+210 (groups) (L) -2.00
-5.05

Cards and referee: by far, the two biggest of WC offsides + cards (cork popping for all)
Over 220.5 cards @-118 (tourney) currently at 167
Total Offsides O159.5 @-118 (tourney) (W) +8.0    done.
PKs awarded: O23.5 @-120 (pending)  currently at 13
+8.00

Argentina/Brazil/Belgium/France score in all matches @+439 (L) -2.0
Group G O22.5 cards @-125 (W) +3.0
Group with most yellows: G @+520 +10.4
Group with most goals: E @+400, C @+640 (W, L) +12.0, -2.0
+21.4

Group results: taking bunch of chances here. these will hopefully determine what to play in the 3rd matches.
Group A: Netherlands, Qatar @+750 (L) -1.0
Group B: England, Iran @+800 (L) -3.0
Group E: Germany, Japan +900 (dual) (L) -2.0
Group F: Belgium, Morocco @+560, Croatia/Morocco @+1000(dual) (L, W) -2.0, +30.0
Group G: Brazil, Serbia @+206 (L) -3.0
Group H: Uruguay, Portugal @+305 (L) -2.0
+17.0

------------------
167 yellows, 185 offsides (finished)
(cards)A: 18, B: 17, C: 28 D: 16, E: 16, F: 17, G: 29, H: 26 (done)
(goals)A: 15, B: 16, C: 12, D: 11, E: 22, F: 11, G: 16, H: 17 (done)
PKs: 13

----------
Round 1:
Iran +1 1/2 @-120 (L) -1.2
Saudis/Aus +1.5 @+3.95 (L)
Poland pick @+104 (P)
Swiss/Cameroon O4.5 cards @-120(L) -1.2
Ghana +1.5 @-115, O2.5 @-108 (W, W) +2.0
2-3 (-1.2)

Round 2:
Argentina-1 @+108 (W)
Tunisia to win @+115 (L)
Japan/Costa Rica Under 2.5 @-120 (W)
Japan/Costa Rica O3.5 cards @-115, O4.5 @+140, O5.5 @+220 (W W W)
Croatia to win @+112 (W)
6-1 (+6.72)

Round 3:
Tunisia to score @-120 (W) +2.0
Mexico score in both halves @+146, Mex/Saudi O2.5 @-210 (L,W) -2.0, +1.0
Uruguay TT O1.5 @-115 (W) +2.0
Tunisia/Mex/Uru to score @+137 (W) +2.74
Ecuador/Senegal O1.5 @+145 (2nd half) (W) +1.45
*USA to win @+108 (W) +24.84
USA/Iran O4.5 cards @-128 (L) -1.28
Poland/Argentina O4.5 cards @+136 (L) -1.0
Saudi/Mex O1.5 @-110 (W) +2.0
Saudi/Mex O4.5 cards @+114, 5.5 @+228 (W, W) +2.28, +2.28
Tunisia +1/2 @+160 (W) +1.6
Denmark -1 @-115 (L) -1.15
Japan +1.5 @-128 (W) +1.0
Costa Rica/Germany O1.5 @-109 (1st half) (L) -1.09
*Belgium to win @+178 (L) -17.0
*Switzerland to win @+180 (W) +14.4
Serbia/Swiss O4.5 cards @+128 (W) +1.28
Cameroon/Brazil O1.5 @-115 (2nd half) (L) -1.15
Ghana/Uruguay O1.5 @+129 (2nd half) (L) -1.00
Cameroon +1.5 @-115 (W) +1.00
14-8 (+34.2)

juiced up 200s have failed to cover the -1.5 in 10 of the 17 matches (10-7)
goose-eggs swept again. and have already hit one of the two biggest with the offsides already blowing over the total without needing the KO rounds.
the other one being yellows which i have yet to total but were at 167 through groups.

R16:
Netherlands to win @-110, -1.5 @+275 (W, W) +5.7
France/Poland -2nd half O1.5 @+104 (W) +1.0
Poland to score first + France win @+720 (L). and Poland +1/2 @-105 (1st half) (L) -2.0
Lions -1 @-103 (W) +1.0
Lions/Senegal O3.5 cards @+108 (L) -1.0
Japan/Croatia winner in xtra time @+520, in PKs @+450 (L, W) +7.0
Brazil/Korea O1.5 @-102 (2nd half) (L) -1.02
Spain -1 @+104, -1.5 @+175 (L, L) -4.0
O3.5 cards @-107 (L) -1.07
Portugal/Swiss btts @-103 (W) btts + draw @+380(L) +0
Portugal/Switz either advance ET @+540, PKs @+470 (L, L) -2.0
6-11 +5.61

heres most of things discussed through Qtrs.  Boll, Windy  sent pm.

Qtr-Finals:

Brazil/Croatia - as expected, Michael got the call. swept both runners so far and here comes #3, jumped all over these immediately for this friday, O3.5 cards @+114, O4.5 @+240. agreed, after listening to Dalics interview with their local media, that one reference to how this is NOT 'figure skating'. is all i need to hear. our beloved Mr Armpits is going to be busy in a few days. and judging from Dalics comments + selections, it looks like hes going to put 5 across the park and clog up their space and copy what the Swiss side were able to do. Croats are more than capable of doing that; the space in the middle the Koreans gave up just wont be there this time around. Croats will get Tites lads shorts dirty and force Brazil wide. will that be enough? im not quite sure, its TOUGH to keep mentally alert a full 90+ vs an opponent as offensively gifted as Tites squad whom covers up their defensive weaknesses by playing o nthe front foot full-steam ahead all the time. but as we list the things with which Brazil struggles with the most, Croatia possess all 3 qualities. and yes, our argument continues (laughing) this will be the best MF Tite faces. if Croats can punch them in the mouth first their chances of extending the match increase 10x as Markus explained, Samba-boys record when the fall behind isnt very good, for all the offensive flair the Samba squads have had through the decades, they struggle when playing from behind.

going to take a player prop: Brozovic to get booked @+200. we ALL know Marcelo, almost a decade over there with Nerazzurri now. hes going to get caught out, and has mean streak bigger than the Alps if ball taken from his foot. which IS going to happen in this match.

for Brazil? well, dont take a genius to figure out why theyre title favs. but then again, theyre always in this spot. and for a country whoms fan base every 4 years act as if that trophy is rightfully theirs; it must be pretty embarrassing for over two decades now, h*ll... theyve had only one significant trophy in past 15 years (Copa). and theyve lost BOTH in their own backyard. eventually they are going to win one one of these days guys. its like throwing pasta on the wall; say it enough times, say it enough years, over and over again and eventually something will stick. the world got to see the Samba-flair last match; funny how everyone in media conveniently forgets they were held scoreless for over an hour to the Serbs & Swiss. and I disagree with a few (the argument continues), Brazil is not a good passing team, they pass to "areas" not pinpoint accuracy. slow them down and make them "think" and they struggle with errant passes, some too short, some too far. Brazil is at their best in the open field. theyre at their best in space, at their best when the opponent GIVES them space. and that backline is NOT as good as advertised, they struggle to keep that line straight in the back and shifting is god-awful. but Tite is masterful of not exposing their weakness simply by playing on their front foot the full 90. cazzo!! it actually looks like he plays 3 in the back all the time.

Can they win 5-0? sure they can. but i doubt it, Qtr-finals arent usually played that way; and this isnt some little-sister-of-the-poor they are playing either. thats an experienced, veteran-led sqaud Dalic has assembled; and theyve been in big-games. besides, since the start of the century..... 16 of the past 20 Qtr finals in the WC have been decided by a goal or less. so i will gladly take the hc as the public falls in love with Samba yet again. Croatia +1.5 @-115    but id advise not unloading as if Samba bangs in an early one....

Netherlands/Gauchos - for me, im in a "bad" spot here. i really like VG side, but pulling for Lionel. what hes done for the sport, to the new generation and they way the game is played today... he (not CR7) was the engine that drove the sport to where we are now. but dare i even say this, a big coaching advantage as well in this one. firstly, i think Lionel will run circles around that MF Holland has assembled. is it me or have they seemed slow? and they dont seem to be playing with a whole lot of confidence. but ive always felt - from the coaching and planning perspective - that Gauchos are "easy" to develop a plan for. wherever Lionel is on the pitch is where the side of the pitch the ball will eventually flow towards. of course, the problem is stopping him. Our groups seems split right down the middle and so am i. too tough to call. just going to enjoy this one and split a regular play in two and put half on each: either qualify via ET @6.15, either qualify via PK @5.15

some other info/stats/trends discussed:

early goals: i REALLY wanted to take this but its juiced. books hanging juice at the 27-28 mark? cazzo!!! (just copying from previous years). to provide an idea of how these matches tend to flow, theres been a goal before the 30th in almost HALF the Qtr-finals since '02. and with knowing Dalics MO - he loves piling on pressure the second that whistle blows for 5-10 minutes and try to get a quick lead before settling in. but I have to wonder just HOW BIG of a pair in his pants he will be have come friday to do that vs Tite. you guys know, the LAST thing you want to do is have a ping-pong match with Tites boys. if thats your thing then go for it @1.83, only reason im not is cause its not '+'.

and the second one i need to keep reminding myself every bloody 4 years are those 2nd half overs. its tempting i admit. makes sense if someone is behind and the pitch opens up ehh?...
just 7 of the past 30 in the Qtrs/Semis the past 5 WC's have had 2+ goals in second half. go figure . teams park major buses with the lead, and if its level @75.... why take the risk of getting booted late when you get another half hour to play. ehhhh?
if you do decide to, just make sure youre getting '+' money for it.

coaches MO's:
England/France goal in first half hour:: yes @-120 - Gareth has quickly become one of my favorites for this prop. score or be scored upon. when the match is of importance, Lions did this in previous WC, he did this in euros, he did it during qualifiers, and did it here again recently.

good luck to all 

Wow Brozovic! Thank you for that! 

Nice call n nice read on Croatia +1.5

ar the end of the day, brazil just not that good

good luck and have a nice weekend

AC 

yoro   samba over rated as always. 

Fuse 

Netherlands/Gauchos either qualify via ET @6.15, either qualify via PK @5.15 (L, W) +1.6
Brazil/Croatia O3.5 cards @+114, O4.5 @+240 (W, W) +4.68
Brozovic to get booked @+200 (W) +2.00
Croatia +1.5 @-115 (W) +2.00

decent evening last night. did have moroccans on hc earlier.  defense reminds us of our '06 team.

Pending:
England/France goal in first half hour: yes @-120

Adding: small play with Lions to advance @+110

when this match done, take the +hc immediately on morocco in semis. 

GL to all 

What do you like today?

Nac   will toss up thoughts below.   pardon for not being organized. 

England/France goal in 1st half hour @-120: Yes (W)

Lions to advance @+110 (L)  

did have the moroccans on the hc last minute. 

very decent tourney so far. 

Pending futures:
Over 220.5 cards @-118 (pending) currently @208.
PKs awarded: O23.5 @-120 (pending) currently 19.

heres some of discussions:

Semi-finals: I guess no need to wait now that we know the 4 advancing. Quickly here, just put out immediate thoughts, not much is going to change in 3-4 days anyways. pretty much all of us already know what we'll be doing so heres my take:

first and foremost, these semis/finals are usually decided by a mistake; out of the 90+ (or 120+) minutes of action all it takes is a 3 second lapse of concentration and 'bye-bye'. and in games where chances are few & far between - until someone bangs one in - this is usually the difference. and I have to admit to thinking: Lionel & Kylian. 2 players whom literally dont need any help. can do absolutely NOTHING for 85 minutes and then, a split second of magic. and since most of us rarely base plays on one player alone lets just try to avoid them both.
- two nations proving that you dont need to score goals to advance deep, and maybe even win the whole thing. and the other two simply jumping on their superstars back and enjoying the ride.
- and as we discussed last week before Qtrs, familiarity; is a pain in the butt to predict +/- of things. many of these players face opponents several times every year; cazzo!!! , some are even teammates. practice together, train together for 7-8 months a year. think they dont know anothers tendencies, strengths/weaknesses? that was last GK on this planet Harry wanted to be staring at when standing on the spot. for the semis, Marcelo spends his weekends looking for Lautaro the past 5 years with Inter. and how many Classicos have Luka/Lionel been in. Hakimi runs around with Kylian everyday in Paris. and the list goes on and on. 

- as Marcus mentioned, just once in past 5 WC's (2010) where both the fav/slight-fav in the semis indeed advanced to the final

Argentina/Croatia - Croats with the best midfield in this WC, again. they were able to eliminate Sambas biggest advantage simply by their ability to retain possession and move the ball around. but im not entirely sure if that will be enough. but again, this is an experienced side, all whom have big-game experience, and I put a lot of weight into that. they have a huge coaching advantage in this one. Dalic is a mastermind, especially on short notice; and hes not afraid to do the unconventional. it wouldnt suprise me the least if Lionel gets marked/shadowed the full 90, cause Zlatko has done it before. and he knows you cant let Lionel turn and square his shoulders upfield, so theyre going to send bodies at him all night long and let someone else beat them.
for the Gauchos, everything starts with Lionel. tho havent tracked his career as closely as others but its been a while since seeing him play with chip on his shoulder. after that Saudi embarrassment a member of their media followers in their native tongue asked him why he wasnt trying so hard. you can tell he didnt like that question, at all. this is where Van Gaal took the cheap shot at him which caused that flare up when the match ended. the team has followed his lead, borderline wreckless if you ask me. I think Argentina will have a big problem winning those battles in middle of pitch. and because of this im not entirely sold on them opening juiced. Lionel can win this with one magical moment but Dalic/Croatia are very very good at taking away Option #1 from opponents playbooks. eliminating BOTH Conmebol behemoths in consecutive matches? ehhhhh...... i find that hard to believe. Gauchos have the best player but Checkers are the better team here. Croats to advance @+220 
one thing worth mentioning is Croatia thumped them in previous WC @Russia. some may think revenge, but many of those players on both sides are out there on the pitch next week still.

Croatia/Argentina O4.5 cards @-120 - should lay off on this and let future ride, but books making a mistake opening this low. since he wasnt called the past few days for any of the Qtrs.... Im almost positive of the two semis going off next week, Daniele will/should get the call for this one. especially after that blowup in the Netherlands match. this is going to be one of those old-school style where everything gets challenged and with the slate on yellows wiped will only help this more.

Morocco/France - joined everyone and jumped on Moroccans +1/2 @+165 a short while ago, thats not to mean i dont have my own concerns.that Moroccan defense is an absolute joy to watch. stirring up memories of our title run back in '06. literally a blueprint of that squad. cohesive. disciplined (they only have 4 yellows). and our beloved horseshoe. their shifting and structure. trees in the middle to clear those crosses into the box; speed on the side whom dont get beaten wide, and a midfield whom know HOW to shut down passing lanes. they have now shut down 3 teams with vastly different offensive approaches. Croats midfield, Spains ground attack, and Portugals crosses via air. and that is one hll of an efficient counter attack they have. even the ones which dont produce anything keep their opponents backlines close to the midfield.
the big problem im having with that play is more than any other squad, Didiers  can beat you any of the 3 ways. air, ground, through the middle. its difficult to park a bus the full 90 and expect to come away with something vs them (well, at least when Les Bleus are motivated). like the previous match ill just change names & cut and paste "unlike Enrique, Didier gives his squad the green light to crack lasers from outside the box. and thats how you start breaking down a bus; get them to come out further. if I had to pick ONE match where id say Les Bleus will probably miss Kantes absence on the roster this might be the one. but even then, i still cant see them being cleansheeted here. far too much experience out there. my melon thinking this either this goes to ET or Les Bleus wins by 2+. of the two semis, this is the one which might get out of control in the 2nd half so ill take the O1.5 @+140 for second half and toss little more on that.

GL to all