Wed International Friendly Day

Covers Posted Soccer: 78-56 +46.24 units

Italy v Netherlands over 2/2.5 -114 to win 2 units

I’m expecting a lot of goals between two teams.  Under Prandelli the Italians have attacked more and it looks like he will go with his super duo (and in form teammates)  Mario Balotelli and El Shawaarey. Prandelli is well aware that they have now lost 5 international friendlies in a row (no big deal because Italy is known for using these games to test tactics, players and matchups) but because Prandelli is bringing his full squad with him tells me that he wants to win this game and put on an “A Team” effort. 

Netherlands skipper Van Gaal confirmed that Van Persie will be in the squad today but he will also use this game to get a look at other players. According to the reports, the hosts will be testing a new formation with defenders with very little experience at that formation let alone that the international experience level for many of their defenders is low.  Expect some mistakes in the host’s defending and midfield play today that should open up some chances for Italy.

Both teams are averaging 2 goals of offence per game in their last 5 internationals.  Netherlands has scored 13 and allowed 2 goals in their last 5 internationals for an average total of 3.00 per game. Italy has scored 11 but allowed 6 in their last 5 international games for an average of 3.4. 

What is certain is that both teams are in top scoring form and have the players up front to score.  As I noted at the outset, the questionable defences of these two teams should lead to some nervous moments in front of both goals with both teams capable of finding the back of the net.

Probable starting 11 for Italy:

Buffon
Abate, Barzagli, Astori, Santon
Montolivo, Pirlo, Giaccherini
Candreva, Balotelli, El Shaarawy

Noteable absentees for Italy include   Giovinco, Giorgio Chiellini, Federico Balzaretti, Christian Maggio and Claudio Marchisio.

Netherlads likely starters:

Krul
Van Rhijn, De Vrij, Mathijsen, Martins Indi
Clasie, Maher, Strootman
Kuyt, Van Persie, Lens

Noteable absentees Michel Vorm, Nigel de Jong, Erik Pieters and Luciano Narsingh.  He will be fielding a relatively young squad with an average age of 25.

All things considered, all of my models give me the exact same 2-1 scoreline with Italy prevailing in 3 and Netherlands in one.

There you have it.  I will add more if I play them but best to stick to the teams you know when betting friendlies ... they are after all, exhibition games used for managers to test players, tactics and chemistry.

ADDED:

ENGLAND V BRAZIL OVER 2.5 +100 2 units

I won't get long winded about this given that I must catch up on some work so I can head out early and watch these games.....

Brazil starts another tennure under Scolari, a man known for letting his goal scorers run loose.  This Brazillian side is loaded with players in outstanding form right now and we could see a very entertaining affair at Wembley.  Selecao for example has scored 25 times in just seven games

Scolari is not one to play for a draw.  In his last go around for Brazil he won 8 of his 24 games (including friendlies) with only 1 draw.  Not likely he'll suddenly have an awakening and start playing for a draw. here. 

Scolari's style of play can lead to vulnerability on the counter as noted by the fact his team allowed 14 goals in 17 matches with him in charge.

The UNDER is the big trend here with 14 of the last 16 head to head matches ending under 2.5 ... so I ask you why isn't the game line lower?  2.25?  2.5 with heavy juice to the under?  Because I have a feeling trend bettors might get sucked into a low scoring game but the books expect goals to be scored here. England is barely off the score sheet when it plays at Wembley but I don't see them stopping Brazil.  the most likely outcome according to my spreadsheet models is 2-1 with one result spitting out a 3-1 final.

Last 5 fo Englad ... 15 scored, 6 conceded for 21 goals and an 5.25 average.  For Brazil, 17 scored, 3 conceded for an average of 4. 

My money is on the over for 2 units.

ADDED:

Argentina v Sweded over 2.5 -120

Sweden has been scoring goals galore in international play, upseting England 4-2 and drawing with Germany 4-4. They play a very open style attacking game.

As for Argentina, they are on the verge of qualifiying for the World Cup so won't be making many changes or looking at new tactics here.  They will play their game and their game means that this one is going to be an open game full of great opportunities and chances to score for both sides. 

take a look at the probable starting lineup for Argentina:

Romero
Zabaleta, F. Fernandez, Garay, Ansaldi
Gago, Mascherano, Di Maria
Aguero, Messi, Higuain

Not exactly a lineup that is easy to defend. That attacking 3 is perhaps the deadliest in the world. 

Over the last 5 games, Sweden led by goal scoring giant Ibrahimovic has scored 13 and conceeded 8 for an average of 4.2.  Argentina has scored 12 and conceded 6 for an average of 3.6.

This should be a wide open game with plenty of goals.

That's it for today ... good luck

I've got spain winning 3-1 and 2-1 but also have two of the models spitting out 1-1 draws so it's a pass for me.

Late last summer I believe as the MLS season was winding down and the European leagues were starting to get going.