Weekend picks

My picks for Saturday:

England:
M. United-West Ham: >3 (1.70);
Man United has 9 overs in their last 10 games overall and 10 overs in their last 10 home games. They also had 25 overs in 38 EPL games last season. Clearly a team with great fire power upfront.
West Ham had 23 overs in 38 EPL games last season.
Offensive teams meeting here and I do expect many goals in this game.

Italy:
Roma-Cesena: >2.5 (1.81);
Roma had 25 overs in 38 Serie A games last season and the team and coach are the same with Brazilian striker Adriano joining a already powerful team.
Roma also scored and conceded goals in all of their last 7 home games.
Cesena has an impressive 5-5-0 record in their last 10 away games (Serie B has they were promoted) and has scored goals in all of their last 7 away games.
I do expect several goals on this one. 

Spain:
Levante-Sevilla: Sevilla (2.19;
Levante comes from the "Liga Adelante" and lost the previous 3 home meetings at home to Sevilla.
Sevilla is by far a much better team but are in poor form at the moment and were trashed by Barça last weekend and lost at home to Braga the game and the possibility of being in the Chamipons League this season.
Still, after Barça and Real they're most likely (along with At. Madrid and Valencia) the best club in Spain and with players like Jesus Navas, Renato, Fabiano and Kanoute they're the favorites to win any game in Spain apart from the ones with the big clubs.
Hope they show some pride today and I have to take them to win at this price.

Hercules-A. Bilbao: >2.25 (2.03);
Hercules scored in all of their last 6 home games and has 5 overs in those games.
Bilbao scored in 5 of their last 6 away games and also has 5 overs in those games.
Previous 2 meetings between these teams at Hercules resulted in overs (2-2 and 3-2).
I like the over 2.25 at this nice price.

Malaga-Valencia: <2.5 (1.79);
Malaga has a new coach in Portuguese Jesualdo Ferreira (former Porto coach in the last 4 seasons) who's a good coach but a defensive one.
Malaga has 4 unders in their last 6 home games while Valencia has 4 unders in their last 6 away games.
The 4 previous meetings at Malaga all went under the total.
It is also extremely hot in Iberia (Portugal and Spain) at the moment and at game time the temperature will most likely be at over 35º in Malaga (Southern Spain).
I do expect the under here.

Portugal:
Nacional-Guimarães: <2.5 (1.55);
Nacional has 8 unders in their last 10 home games and the last one at home to Benfica resulted in an over from 2 huge mistakes from Benfica Keeper and Benfica scoring in injury time.
Guimarães has 6 unders in their last 10 away games and new coach Manuel Machado was Nacional's coach for many years until last season (meaning he knows the players and the club like the palm of his hand). Guimarães didn't have a very good start of the season and today they will be keeping at keeping it tight and try to score out of a set piece or fast counter attack.
In the previous 8 games in Choupana between the teams 6 went under the total and I think it will happen again today.

Benfica-Setúbal: >2.75 (1.81);
Benfica won the title last season in great fashion with a 14-1-0 home record (tied only the 1st home game to Marítimo and won all the others), scoring an average of 3 goals per game at home and losing only 2 games the entire season in the Superliga (away to Braga and Porto).
This season they lost Ramires and Di Maria and changed the Keeper. All the rest is basically the same (players and coach). The thing is that Benfica failed to replace the stars that left, the new Keeper sucks so far (they paid 8.5 Million Euros for him and now it looks he's on his way out for a loan or something with Keepers Doni, Roma, and Marchetti, Udinese holding conversations with Benfica)  and striker Oscar Cardozo (who scored 26 goals in the Superliga last season) is in horrible form so far.
Today, Argentinian winger/forward Salvio will debut for Benfica and Hlleb seems to be on his way to also join to replace Ramires.
Benfica will go all in today in a game they must win as they cannot waste any more points. I think Cardozo will start socring today as they did last season (scored his 1st goal in the 3rd round of the Superliga).
Setúbal has a decent and experienced team and coach this season and wil surely be doing what every small club (it's the culture of the small clubs in Portugal) does at Estádio da Luz: delay the game, play with the clock and do nothing but defend and look for a setpiece or something to try to cause some damage.
Benfica should win and we'll most likely see several goals in the game.

Season record to date: 27 1/2-13 1/2-2 (67.07%) and +12.08 units.

 everyone!

GL Today

Thanks guys !
Yesterday was not a good day...

My picks for today:

Portugal:
Beira-Mar-Acedémica: draw (3.11) and <2.5 (1.57)
Both teams will fight to avoid relegation but amongst the bottom half teams, Academica seems to be one of the best ones.
Hosts will have 2 new players in the team today but should have a hard time avoiding relegation this season.
There shouldn't be much people in the stands and it should be a dull, low scoring affair.
Last 3 meetings between these teams in Aveiro resulted in 0-0 draws and today should be no different.

P. Ferreira-Portimonense: P. Ferreira (1.88);
These teams never met before in the Superliga.
Hosts have been a Superliga club for the last decade or so, Portimonense is back in the Superliga after a 20 year absence.
Paços Ferreira is a tough nut to crack at home, are a much more experienced team, look to be in good shape with 1 win and 1 draw so far and should win this one against a very naive Portimonense team.

Braga-Maritimo: Braga (1.54);
I think this is a nice odd for a Braga win here (I expected it to be a bit lower...).
Braga are not a big club but are in great shape and seem to keep the momentum from the previous two seasons going.
Last season they won this game 2-1 after some ref mistakes in their favor but this season Maritimo doesn't look nearly as good so far with 4 defeats in a row (coach is under a lot of pressure and a loss today will most likely mean he gets sacked...in this kind of situation that's what usually happens).
Braga should win this one with more or less difficulty.

Olhanense-Leiria: draw (3.11) and <2.5 (1.53);
This should be just another dull, tight and low scoring game.
Leiria hasn't scored a single goal yet in the Superliga while Olhanense is 1-1 in goals so far.
The 0-0 is the most likely result here, just like last season (and both tems looked better last season).

Rio Ave-Porto: Rio Ave +1AH (2.28) and <2.5 (1.79);
The only win for the hosts in games between these teams at Vila do Conde happened in 2003/04 (Mourinho as Porto's coach at the time) but the games at Estadio dos Arcos are always tough ones for Porto (they only won half the games there).
This game takes place after another European game for Porto and they should have a hard time against a decent Rio Ave team (who are clearly better than Naval where Porto only won 1-0 with the goal coming from a non existing penalty kick).

Spain:
Santander-Barcelona: Barcelona -1.5 (1.74);
This season should be a dog fight in "La Liga" between the two giants Real Madrid and Barcelona and the title could be very well decided in small "details".
Barça will be even more alert (if that's possible) and do all they can to make sure they don't screw up in games like this where they're huge favorites.
Barça has an impressive away record in their last 10 games during which they have only 2 losses (away to Inter Milan last season in the Champions League and at the start of this season away to Sevilla where they played with the reserves).
They won here last season 1-4 and should win by at least 2 goals today.

Mallorca-Real Madrid: Real Madrid (1.41);
The odd is a bit low on this game IMO but I think Real will win this game, so I'll take it.
Mourinho knows the title will most likely be decided on small details and will want to make sure he wins this one.
Mourinho likes to start the season in a strong fashion to motivate his teams, get a good lead in the table so that after the 2nd half of the season he can rotate players and be fit for European competitions as well.
Mallorca had an impressive season last year and are a good team.
This should be a hard game for Real but they have more than enough quality and talent to win this one.

2 units on each play again today.

 everyone!

Last pick of the weekend for me and then it's a few days off:

Naval-Sporting: <2.5 (1.56);
Sporting had a midweek intense game in Denmark and should be more tired than Naval.
The last 2 meetings at Figueira da Foz Sporting won 0-1 and I expect a similar game to the one Naval recently played at home with Porto: a lot of midfield action, not taking many risks and looking to cause some damage out of a set piece or a fast counter attack.
There's been already 4 overs so far this weekend in the Superliga (a low scoring league) which is another reason for me to think this should be a low scoring game.

 everyone!