World Cup - Tuesday Nov 22

Tuesday Nov 22nd

Argentina / Saudi Arabia – No Bet – I don’t see any way to make a case that Argentina doesn’t win this game.  But first round, with huge odds or give 2 goals?  No thanks.  Not much to write about this match – should be one sided and dominant – but there is nothing in the total or the odds or the handicap that I would be willing to put my own money on. Even Tina to win to nil is -170. Pass.  Predicted Final Score:  Argentina 2 Saudi Arabia 0

Denmark / Tunisia – Denmark -1 -124 (1.5 unit) – Denmark is a team that I will back early as a favorite.  They are a very cohesive squad that has had a multi-cycle buildup to this tournament.  They only had one loss in UEFA qualifying, and that was a largely meaningless match on the final day after they had clinched – scoring 30 goals and conceding 1 (until the final match where they lost 2-0 to Scotland).  This is a side that is strong all over the pitch, and as everyone saw in the Euro tournament – they can adapt and play lots of different styles.

Tunisia are a good side who got in a very bad draw.  They would be a team to consider qualification if they weren’t in a group with France and Denmark.  Denmark will know this is a must win game for them with France and Australia on deck – and I just see them coming out of the gates strong and putting up a big number, and I am comfortable laying a goal because I see it as more likely a multi-goal win than a draw or loss.  Predicted Final Score:  Denmark 3 Tunisia 1

Mexico / Poland – Poland +185 (risk 1 unit) – Mexico has only won 3 of its 9 matches in 2022, including a draw against Guatemala and losses to Sweden, Colombia, Paraguay, and Uruguay.  I don’t see why this tournament is going to get any better for them because they struggle to score against quality competition.  Poland should get Lewandowski the couple of chances he needs to bury one or two.  Willing to forgo the PK here to get the odds on the W…. Predicted Final Score:  Poland 2 Mexico 1  

France / Australia – No Bet – very similar situation to the Argentina / Saudi match, just not willing to put anything out there until I see France play one or two.  Predicted Final Score:  France 2 Australia 0

Good stuff Van!

Love it VZ! Thx man

Nice writeup thanks

@vanzack

 Brother excellent as always and you are really clued in.  Love when you know not to bet.  Thanks for dropping the knowledge and continued benefit to Covers; you are an OG and we have lost too many.  Best rest of the way!    I read before I start my process....

nice call on staying away from Tina

makes the loss to Cameroon on opening day at Italia 90 look good

I suppose you don't bother with any prop bets on games you're not having a normal play on like anytime goalscorer, HT result, corners etc 

 later on

@vanzack

Robert Lewandowski +200 Anytime goal scorer  

Yeah - sometimes the best bets are the ones you dont make.

I bet all kinds of props and other stuff.  But doing what I do here takes so much time and effort - I have to trunkate it for the masses a little bit.  I try to stick to sides and totals only, because if I post a prop there are people who cant get it - have questions etc...

If there is something specific you want to discuss as far as a prop - chime in...

I am on this also.

Van - absolutely stunning and incredible result for Tina. I cannot imagine what it is like to be a countryman for them right now, it must be devastating. Appreciate the thoughts as always.

One of the less desirable things about posting so early is my posted lines are sometimes not the best line.

Everyone who bet Denmark -1 today got + money, and everyone who bets Poland is getting +225ish now.

Oh well.

Let's go Poland ! 

Got Poland at 235 here. Great value. Looks like a lot of public $ on Mexico

Argentina / Saudi Arabia post mortem….

If not the biggest upset in the history of the WC, one of them for sure.  Saudi Arabia put together two great individual pieces of play to get their two goals within a blistering 5 minutes and then hung on for dear life.  Every stat favored the Argentinians – the most glaring could be the XG of 2.15 to .15 (yes, .15 XG turned in to 2 goals for Saudi).

Herve Renard – the most Dangerous man in the World Cup (stay thirsty my friends) – decided he was going to employ the 1970’s offside trap with the highest defensive line possible.  As a result – Argentina were called offside 7 times in the first half – more than any team at the 2018 WC in any game.  They got their first goal on a wrestling tackle on a corner kick which resulted in a PK, but couldn’t seem to breach the high line which is a very interesting development for future opponents of Argentina.

Even with that – Saudi had zero attempts on goal in the first half – and looked like they were happy with a 0-1.  Until the beginning of the second half – when it has to be said – two incredibly well taken micro chances turned in to goals.  The second was possibly the goal of the tournament – beating 4 defenders to curl far post past the diving Martinez and in to the upper corner.  From there – it was all hands on deck defending – which they did very well.

I am not sure DiMaria really adds anything to this squad anymore, as he was constantly losing the ball and not effective.  But the 36 match unbeaten streak is over for Tina, and now the group is as even as possible – with all 4 teams having a relatively equal chance of advancing (before the Poland / Mexico match).  Argentina will likely have to beat them both.

Denmark / Tunisia post mortem….

Denmark had another shutout – their 9 in their last 11 matches.  But it wasn’t enough as they couldn’t put together enough creativity to break down the stubborn Tunisian defense.  The passing wasn’t quick enough for the Danes – and they really did miss an absolute sitter on the goal line in the 70 minute off of a corner kick that just needed any touch to go in. It was a whopping .9 XG (meaning 90% a goal), but it was duffed.

The XG finished 1.7 to .96 in favor of the Danes – but the .96 had a .5 chance that was offside but not called because Schmeichel made a great save that forced a corner.  Had that Tunisian chance gone in – VAR would have reviewed to an offside.

Most of the chances in this match came from set pieces – notably corner kicks – as there were 20 corners that resulted in 14 shots.  Denmark really did have the serious chances – and had the sitter on the 70 minute gone in – it would have been totally different.  I don’t think the Danes will be too worried about this result – and I do think the score flatters Tunisia – but they did get the result and the point which opens the group up for the French later today.

More speed and quick passing would have served the Danes well today – and in the end they cant be a set piece team to beat better competition down the road.  Tunisia looked solid – but they will still struggle to create real chances against either Australia or France upcoming.

Denmark looked toothless Tunisia actually had the better chances. Surprised by that.

I think Mexico will beat Poland. I know they have Lewandowski but he's actually never scored in a world cup match

Thank you for your excellent write-ups and your research. I liked Denmark as well today but thanks to live betting I ended up with a small loss. This Denmark team is absolute garbage. No team speed at all. They're going nowhere in this World Cup.

Poland and Mexico were both miserable. Playing for a draw in that situation both deserve to go home and likely will.

Poland / Mexico post mortem…

The first half looked like Mexico were in charge.  Their speed and pace of ball movement was giving trouble to the Poles, as they seemed to always be a step behind the ball movement.  But nothing dangerous was created from all of the possession.

Second half things changed a little bit as the Poles took the ball more, and sat on it creating some better passing combinations.  But the problem seems to always be that Lewandowski – clearly the best player on the pitch for the Poles – might as well be standing in a corner because he just does not get touches or service.  And it was again today – as he was no impact on the game other than drawing the foul that was the reason for the PK – and then missing the PK (had made 68 of 75 in his career).  Poland have to figure this out or they will be going home soon.

I don’t really understand the PK strategy of putting it low – any PK waist high or higher is a goal no matter where it is – but hey I am on a computer typing and they are playing. 

A game of few chances that looked like it should have had more, and a key PK miss that probably would have been the winner.  No matter what they say on TV – both sides are still in great shape to advance based on their results in the next two. 

France / Australia post mortem….

Australia score first….  Alarm bells go…. And then get blitzed.

There is one major takeaway here even for the most casual of fan.  Speed, ball movement, and speed of ball movement – of France – is the best we have seen by far.  The combination play of France in tight spots – and the speed of the ball movement – and the speed of the players (Mbappe specifically) – is like nothing we have seen so far.  When these guys are clicking – they are going to be tough to beat even with all of the injuries.

Not much else surprising or noteworthy in this one.  France in great shape because of the Denmark draw – but the Danes have a history of beating the French recently – so the group is still up for grabs.  But make no mistake – when France play the way they did today – they will be a very tough out.