World Cup Penalty Shootout and draw chase system

Tried this at the Euros's last year 

here's how it went  

https://www.covers.com/forum/soccer/chase-system-for-the-remaining-7-euro-games-103547169

Firstly a few stats concerning the last 16 will break down the Qtr's onwards later 

So 8 games in the last 16 and working backwards here's what has gone to Pens from 2018 to 1986

All games in chronological order too so today Holl/USA is game 1 Arg/Aus game 2 etc 

draws (games settled in extra time noted as well)

Last 16's only

Pens listed first then games that were settled in ET

2018 - Games 3,4 & 8 pens

2014 - Game 4 pens with Games 1,6,7,8 in ET

2010 - Game 7 pens with Game 2 ET

2006 - Game 7 pens and game 2 ET

2002 - Game 4 pens with Games 3 & 8 ET

1998 - Game 8 pens with Game 3 ET

1994 - Game 8 pens with Game 7 ET

1990 - Game 5 pens with games 1,7 & 8 in ET

1986 - No pens with Game 2 ET 

will look at the later stages at another time 

so as you can see all bar 86 had at least one penalty shootout in the last 16 with 24 of the 72 last 16 round games played from 1986 to 2018 going to Extra time ie being  draws 

So for this last 16 starting out nice and steady, some games I will elect to reduce the unit size on (ie not chase) for the simple reason I think it will almost certainly be settled in reg time 

So with Game 1 Netherland vs USA 

Draw @ 3.25 for 0.7 units 

Netherland to win on pens @ 10.00 

 0.7 Units 

USA To win on pens @ 10.00 

  0.7 Units 

so stand to profit 5.6 Units not incl the draw if it goes to penalties 

@Peanutzz

 Duckycappers is that you ? 

Really great write up and research as well. Did not realize that basically 33% of games went to ET. This is really good information.  

   gotime

scaling back a little on this one as Arg on paper at least should get the win in 90 mins but Australia could force extra time 

Arg/Aus 

   Draw @ 6.50 for 0.5 Units 

Arg win on pens @ 21.00

Aus win on pens @ 23.00

 both for 0.35 units a pop 

GL! I think this Tina side is super old at some key positions. You know Australia will not be wanting to go forward often. 

Straya almost got a last gasp equalizer last night still we move on  

France/Poland 

Draw @ 5.00 

  1.2 Units 

France win on pens @ 17.00

  0.7 Units 

Poland to win on pens @ 17.00 

  0.5 Units 

3 games down and nothing yet still plenty of games to play 

England/Senegal 

  Draw @ 4.00 

Eng on pens @ 14.00

Sen on pens @ 14.00 

all three for 0.7 units a pop 

3 games down and nothing yet still plenty of games to play 

England/Senegal 

  Draw @ 4.00 

Eng on pens @ 14.00

Sen on pens @ 14.00 

all three for 0.7 units a pop 

Japan/Croatia 

  Draw @ 3.25 1.3 units 
  Draw @ 3.10 1.3 units 

2.6 units in total to win 5.65 Units 

Jpn win on pens @ 11.00

Cro win on pens @ 11.00

 0.9 Units a pop 

Brazil vs Sth Korea 

Draw @ 6.00 

  1.5 Units 

Brazil win on pens @ 21.00 

Sth Korea win on pens @ 23.00 

  0.8 units a pop 

@I-Got-5-On-It

 Bruh stop. Brazil aint playing today like france england and netherlands wasnt playing.  I can see wity croatia and portugal swiss as the ones. Spain will be ready for morocco

Cro/Jpn   +8.1 Units on the shootout and +5.65 units on the draw 

doubled up earlier on the draw    

but regret not going in heavier on the shootout 

anyways 

record first 5 games 

Draws 1-4   +2.55 Units 

Penalties 1-9  (technically since I bet both teams but really it's 1-4)  +3.4 Units 

Spain/Morocco 

Spain win on pens @ 14.00 

  1.3 units 

Rocco win on pens @ 16.00

  1 unit

Draw @ 4.00

  1.8 units 

Port/Switz 

Draw @ 3.50

 2 Units 

Switz win on pens @ 12.00

Port win on pens @ 12.00

  1.8 units a pop

I thiink you'll catch another one today !

@LONG-TU

   great to see rocco win the shootout 

Apparently the Spanish players all had to take a 1000 practice penalties each 

I think the coach was a little too soft on them     

next time, make in 5000 

Great wins on Morocco match Congrats!!!

So 1st round of the KO stages 

The system is .. 

 Draws 2-6

   +4.45 Units 

Penalty shootout plays 

2-14 

 +16.6 Units 

Some more stats   

Important that this is the quarter finals onwards only doesn't include the L16 games only the final 8 games 

The third place playoff game I've abbreviated to 3P 

and also from 86 onwards 

the 1st shootout was at the 1982 World Cup in the SF between France & W Germany but that was also the last tournamnet to have the 2nd Stage in lieu of a L16 and Qtr finals 

So only listing the games that went to ET & Pens  Total number of  draws listed as x/8 

1986   QF Gm's 1,2, & 4 Pens 
           3P ET

           Draws 4/8 
              3 went to pens 75%

1990   QF Game 1 pens & Game 4 ET 
          SF Gm's 1 & 2 Pens 
     
           Draws  4/8
            3 went to Pens 75%

1994   QF Game 4 Pens
           Final Pens 

          Draws 2/8 
             100% went to pens

1998   QF Game 1 Pens
           SF Game 1 Pens 

          Draws 2/8
             100% went to pens 

2002   QF Game 3 Pens & Game 4 ET 

          Draws 2/8 
            50% went to pens 

2006   QF Games 1 & 4 went to pens 
           SF Game 1 ET 
           Final Pens 

           Draws 4/8
              75% went to pens 

cont'd 

2010   QF Game 2 pens
           Final ET 

              Draws 2/8
                50% went to pens 

2014    QF Game 4 pens
            SF Game 2 pens 
            Final ET 

              Draws 3/8 
                 66% went to pens 

2018   QF  Game 4 pens 
          SF  Game 2 ET

             Draws 2/8 
                50% went to pens  

So out of the above the have been 9 World Cups with 72 games from the Quarter Finals onwards 

of which 25 have been draws at 34% 

and 18 have gone to penalties or 25% 

of which in the Qtr's 36 games 14 have been draws or 39%

with 12 of those going to penalties or 33% 

12 of the 14 equals a 85.7% conversion rate of games played in the qtrs's going all the way to pens

The semis have been 18 games with 6 games going to ET and 4 going to penalties (of which 2 of those SO's were way back at Italia 90)

3rd place playoff, nice and simple only 1 game going to ET way back in 1986 

and of the 9 Finals, 4 have been draws with 2 of those going to shootout's both in '94 & '06  

Not many games decided in extra time. Based on this betting draw is negative EV and would think betting decided by penalties quite good EV   I can get draw +220 or decided in penalties +600 for Netherlands - Argentina