OH FORGET MY LAST MESSAGE!!!!!....haha too early...totally misread.
+550 is great value for Japan to get "0" points in the group.
I need to put on my glasses next time.
I guess +550 for a Cameroon win we can translate that bet into!!! great odds...I think Denmark and Netherlands will win easy vs Japan. I'm going to shop for that bet too!!!! BOL !!!! sorry on the knob message. haha
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OH FORGET MY LAST MESSAGE!!!!!....haha too early...totally misread.
+550 is great value for Japan to get "0" points in the group.
I need to put on my glasses next time.
I guess +550 for a Cameroon win we can translate that bet into!!! great odds...I think Denmark and Netherlands will win easy vs Japan. I'm going to shop for that bet too!!!! BOL !!!! sorry on the knob message. haha
Haha, no problem Gastown. Your post made for a good read.
It's on Bet365. I haven't heard great things about them, but I put in a very small deposit the other day because they had a couple of things I was looking for in a book that I couldn't find elsewhere.
I haven't really even used the book yet, so I don't know if I would recommend them.
They generally don't have incredible odds....so I would imagine you should be able to find something similar to +550 (or better) elsewhere.
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Haha, no problem Gastown. Your post made for a good read.
It's on Bet365. I haven't heard great things about them, but I put in a very small deposit the other day because they had a couple of things I was looking for in a book that I couldn't find elsewhere.
I haven't really even used the book yet, so I don't know if I would recommend them.
They generally don't have incredible odds....so I would imagine you should be able to find something similar to +550 (or better) elsewhere.
AWESOME THREAD GUYS!!! ....... like i have said in the past, i know little about soccer indepth.......i have a $15,000 goal when this World Cup is done,and i am definitely using this thread to help me make it!!
$$$$$$$$$
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AWESOME THREAD GUYS!!! ....... like i have said in the past, i know little about soccer indepth.......i have a $15,000 goal when this World Cup is done,and i am definitely using this thread to help me make it!!
You can still get Netherlands at 11-1 to win the World Cup on Bodog, but you have to go through the "Stage of Elimination" prop.
Go Dutch.
Vanzack, what you thinking about the England v. USA match?
I think there will be a LOT of opportunities on goal, and I think England will win. Im not necessarily going to be laying the juice on England, but I most certainly will be on a lot of goals.
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Quote Originally Posted by djcfl1:
You can still get Netherlands at 11-1 to win the World Cup on Bodog, but you have to go through the "Stage of Elimination" prop.
Go Dutch.
Vanzack, what you thinking about the England v. USA match?
I think there will be a LOT of opportunities on goal, and I think England will win. Im not necessarily going to be laying the juice on England, but I most certainly will be on a lot of goals.
Since you're bear-ish on the African teams and feel that Slovenia, USA and Algeria have a similar chance at C2, here's current odds on the African team to advance the furthest:
Ivory Coast 9-4
Ghana 7-2
Cameroon 4-1
Nigeria 4-1
South Africa 7-1
Algeria 16-1
Yeah, I was eyeing that one too.....
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Quote Originally Posted by thejudge1000:
Terrific write-up, thanks.
Since you're bear-ish on the African teams and feel that Slovenia, USA and Algeria have a similar chance at C2, here's current odds on the African team to advance the furthest:
Hey Van, thanks for answering my last question. I see you're having to answer a lot of them, hopefully you don't mind.
I can get a better price for Ivory Coast Not to advance over Portugal to advance. Considering this, I feel it makes complete sense to take Ivory Coast Not to advance. Assuming that Brazil is close to a shoe-in as either 1st or 2nd in that group, I really can't see what I'm losing by taking this option.
It's a pretty significant difference in price though.....and I have trouble believing that this difference is entirely due to the chance that Brazil will not advance. Also, I feel like there must be a reason that you took Portugal to advance instead of IC not to. As a result, I'm worried that I've over looked something here.
Do you have any thoughts?
North Korea wont advance, and Brazil will.
Bet the best way to get the best price possible on whichever of the other two you like.
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Quote Originally Posted by Livan33:
Hey Van, thanks for answering my last question. I see you're having to answer a lot of them, hopefully you don't mind.
I can get a better price for Ivory Coast Not to advance over Portugal to advance. Considering this, I feel it makes complete sense to take Ivory Coast Not to advance. Assuming that Brazil is close to a shoe-in as either 1st or 2nd in that group, I really can't see what I'm losing by taking this option.
It's a pretty significant difference in price though.....and I have trouble believing that this difference is entirely due to the chance that Brazil will not advance. Also, I feel like there must be a reason that you took Portugal to advance instead of IC not to. As a result, I'm worried that I've over looked something here.
Do you have any thoughts?
North Korea wont advance, and Brazil will.
Bet the best way to get the best price possible on whichever of the other two you like.
Did you get Japan for 0 points at +360, or is that a typo? I see it at one of my books for +550 right now. I know you shop for the best price, and I know you wouldn't have made this play if you didn't see value in it. So if you did feel there was value at +360, I'm thinking about hitting it relatively hard at +550.
Where do you see +550?
I do shop around - but I have certain requirements for a sportsbook (the main one is that I get paid) - so maybe I am not at the book offering this - but that is a good price.
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Quote Originally Posted by Livan33:
One other question.
Did you get Japan for 0 points at +360, or is that a typo? I see it at one of my books for +550 right now. I know you shop for the best price, and I know you wouldn't have made this play if you didn't see value in it. So if you did feel there was value at +360, I'm thinking about hitting it relatively hard at +550.
Where do you see +550?
I do shop around - but I have certain requirements for a sportsbook (the main one is that I get paid) - so maybe I am not at the book offering this - but that is a good price.
I want to start by simply playing the two teams I feel will adavnce from each group. Am I better playing two different scenarios in most groups, ie: Group E: Neth/Cam +161 AND Neth/Denmark +165 OR... simply play one of the two and double my play?
The way I am capping, there are 4 groups with a "clear cut" double to advance and 4 others where it could be one or two variations.
Thanks!
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Van... strategy-wise question.
I want to start by simply playing the two teams I feel will adavnce from each group. Am I better playing two different scenarios in most groups, ie: Group E: Neth/Cam +161 AND Neth/Denmark +165 OR... simply play one of the two and double my play?
The way I am capping, there are 4 groups with a "clear cut" double to advance and 4 others where it could be one or two variations.
Excellent question, Livan. I suppose the "wildcard" of perhaps somehow that North Korea plays well? I dunno. I agree though that the IC not to qualify at -124 is obviously the better play.
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Excellent question, Livan. I suppose the "wildcard" of perhaps somehow that North Korea plays well? I dunno. I agree though that the IC not to qualify at -124 is obviously the better play.
Excellent question, Livan. I suppose the "wildcard" of perhaps somehow that North Korea plays well? I dunno. I agree though that the IC not to qualify at -124 is obviously the better play.
Thanks Source. There's also the possibility (however small) that Brazil does not qualify....meaning that both Portugal and Ivory Coast would advance.
This would mean that you would win your bet if you took Portugal to advance, but not if you took Ivory Coast not to advance. However, I have trouble believe that this explains the full .46 difference.
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Quote Originally Posted by TheSource2Win:
Excellent question, Livan. I suppose the "wildcard" of perhaps somehow that North Korea plays well? I dunno. I agree though that the IC not to qualify at -124 is obviously the better play.
Thanks Source. There's also the possibility (however small) that Brazil does not qualify....meaning that both Portugal and Ivory Coast would advance.
This would mean that you would win your bet if you took Portugal to advance, but not if you took Ivory Coast not to advance. However, I have trouble believe that this explains the full .46 difference.
I want to start by simply playing the two teams I feel will adavnce from each group. Am I better playing two different scenarios in most groups, ie: Group E: Neth/Cam +161 AND Neth/Denmark +165 OR... simply play one of the two and double my play?
The way I am capping, there are 4 groups with a "clear cut" double to advance and 4 others where it could be one or two variations.
Thanks!
I have a feeling Van will be able to put together a better response than myself, but I figured I'd give it a shot.
Based on Expected Value, you would be better off playing one of them and doubling your play. For example, let's say you thought there was a 40% chance that Holland/Cameroon went through and a 41% chance that Holland/Denmark went through.
If you risked 2 units on Holland/Denmark your expected profit would be: (2*1.65)*.41 - 2*.59= .17 Units.
If you risked 1 unit on Holland/Cameroon and 1 unit on Holland/Denmark your expected profit would be: (1*1.65)*.41-.59+(1*1.61)*.4-.6 = .13 Units
A similar example could be done if you believe the Holland/Cameroon probability > Holland/Denmark probability
If for whatever reason you are really trying to lower your variance and ensure that you win your play then maybe a case could be made for betting both.....but from a strictly Expected Value point of view it is a better idea to put double the amount on whichever you think has a higher expected value.
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Quote Originally Posted by TheSource2Win:
Van... strategy-wise question.
I want to start by simply playing the two teams I feel will adavnce from each group. Am I better playing two different scenarios in most groups, ie: Group E: Neth/Cam +161 AND Neth/Denmark +165 OR... simply play one of the two and double my play?
The way I am capping, there are 4 groups with a "clear cut" double to advance and 4 others where it could be one or two variations.
Thanks!
I have a feeling Van will be able to put together a better response than myself, but I figured I'd give it a shot.
Based on Expected Value, you would be better off playing one of them and doubling your play. For example, let's say you thought there was a 40% chance that Holland/Cameroon went through and a 41% chance that Holland/Denmark went through.
If you risked 2 units on Holland/Denmark your expected profit would be: (2*1.65)*.41 - 2*.59= .17 Units.
If you risked 1 unit on Holland/Cameroon and 1 unit on Holland/Denmark your expected profit would be: (1*1.65)*.41-.59+(1*1.61)*.4-.6 = .13 Units
A similar example could be done if you believe the Holland/Cameroon probability > Holland/Denmark probability
If for whatever reason you are really trying to lower your variance and ensure that you win your play then maybe a case could be made for betting both.....but from a strictly Expected Value point of view it is a better idea to put double the amount on whichever you think has a higher expected value.
What are thoughts with Germany vs Australia??????? I know Australia has a few top tier players, but havn't read much up on them. What are the predictions for this game ????
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Quote Originally Posted by clepto:
USA wins it all
...
What are thoughts with Germany vs Australia??????? I know Australia has a few top tier players, but havn't read much up on them. What are the predictions for this game ????
I think there will be a LOT of opportunities on goal, and I think England will win. Im not necessarily going to be laying the juice on England, but I most certainly will be on a lot of goals.
USA team total over 0.5 must be worth a flyer, no?
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
I think there will be a LOT of opportunities on goal, and I think England will win. Im not necessarily going to be laying the juice on England, but I most certainly will be on a lot of goals.
USA team total over 0.5 must be worth a flyer, no?
I like the US Over assuming they play to win and not gain goal differential in the tourney! They can score every match but they also can let in 2 every time they hit they pitch.
I cannot believe the African teams have fallen as much as they have, but w/out Drogba Ivory Coast is toast and S. Africa may get a draw or 2 but they play so conservative I'm loving them Under throughout the tourney. Cameroon No thanks, they can't even play w/ Australia so any bet against Africa I like!
It's hard to predict Brazil and Arg but I fully expect 1 of those 2 in the finals. Hell it's hard to see anyone else landing there.
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I like the US Over assuming they play to win and not gain goal differential in the tourney! They can score every match but they also can let in 2 every time they hit they pitch.
I cannot believe the African teams have fallen as much as they have, but w/out Drogba Ivory Coast is toast and S. Africa may get a draw or 2 but they play so conservative I'm loving them Under throughout the tourney. Cameroon No thanks, they can't even play w/ Australia so any bet against Africa I like!
It's hard to predict Brazil and Arg but I fully expect 1 of those 2 in the finals. Hell it's hard to see anyone else landing there.
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....haha too early...totally misread. 
$$$
I think they have a great chance to advance out of their group. 
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