World Cup Preview and First Round Game picks thread.....

Quote Originally Posted by benhogan76:

Great thread, I dont bet much soccer could you or anyone else explain to me why I have some totals that read 2, 2.5 with only 1 price?

1/2 your bet is being risked on the o/u 2 goals, and the other half is being risked on the o/u 2.5 goals.

if you bet over 2, 2.5 at -140

1/2 unit on over 2 at -140
1/2 unit on over 2.5 at -140

Is the game ends 1-1, you push you over 2 total, and lose your 1/2 unit on the over 2.5 total, or you lose .70 units.

It is a way to reduce the juice if you wanted to take the under in this situation (at ~ +100 odds for example for under 2), or pay more juice if you didnt want to place your entire bet on the over 2.5 (which may be around -110)  

Quote Originally Posted by Fat_Chick:

Hey Van, maybe this is a dumb question( i know you like answering those anyways) but why did matchbook release the handicap lines?

Isn't Uraguay +.5 the exact same thing as France to win(no)?

I am going to tail you for a bit as i enjoy the world cup but do not know much about soccer. Good luck

Not at all....

Uruguay +.5 means Uruguay NOT TO LOSE...so if the match is a draw at the end of 90+, you're a winner.  if Uruguay wins, you're a winner.

If France wins, you're bet is a loser.

Quote Originally Posted by redg:

Bake - he means France not to win. Check out Matchbook - you'll see what he means. Actually a very good question - the -0.5/+0.5 handicap is redundant on MB for any game where they also offer MLs.


GL vanzack & go USA!!

redg, sorry if I misunderstood the question.  I havent checked Matchbook.  Thanks for clarifying bro.

vanzack, great great thread

i haven't seen any of your plays besides what you posted in you initial posts breaking down the groups....any match plays yet?

Van I keep looking but I have yet to find a book which offers me treater all around value than Pinnacle... you mention Bookmaker and as a book with some pedigree (ie. Betcris roots) I have looked into it but see that their lines are usually of the 10c variety

I remember asking Malinsky this question heading into football season one year and he flat out advised me to stick with Pinny for all of my football wagering and save some time and hassle lol...

Excellent lines, huge limits, solid reputation and stability and a decent variety of betting options... only drawback I see is in the area of parlaying (not my priority) and customer service (no calling).

Obviously it is not an easy choice for Americans (who are prohibited) but I just wonder if you know of a better all-around book??

Quote Originally Posted by Fat_Chick:

Hey Van, maybe this is a dumb question( i know you like answering those anyways) but why did matchbook release the handicap lines?

Isn't Uraguay +.5 the exact same thing as France to win(no)?

I am going to tail you for a bit as i enjoy the world cup but do not know much about soccer. Good luck

It makes it easier to bet France NOT to win.  Some people dont realize you can bet the draw and Uruguay and that would equal Uruguay +.5.  Also, you would have to figure out the ratio to risk.

Also - you will have less juice betting it on a 2 way line rather than a 3 way line....  Just trust me on this one - or do the math yourself....

On page 6 of this thread...

June 11 - Day 1

1.  S.A. / Mexico over 2 -122 (1.5 units) - The atmosphere should be electric for this game, and I do think S.A. will come out in an attacking mode.  The problem is - they dont have the talent to play an open game without giving up counterattacks - and they dont have the midfield to maintain possession to effectively execute.  Mexico should see most of the ball - and be able to get a lot of chances on net.  An early goal would be great here - because that will open it up even further - if there is a goal in the first half this one should go over easily.  Final score prediction Mexico 2-1.

2.  France / Uruguay - Uruguay +.5 -109 (if you only have a 3 way optoin, bet the draw + the win) (2 units) - This line has crept up in the past several days to around -125 or so - but I would still lay that.  Uruguay would be happy with a draw here, and something tells me that France would be too.  Everyone knows that France hasnt been playing well as a team, has yet to emerge with an onfield leader - so a team like Uruguay will be lucky to get them early in case they do turn it around.  I see this one played close to the vest, with lots of midfield possession on both sides.  Predicted score Uruguay 1 France 1.

Day 2 June 12

3.  Greece / South Korea - under 2 -103 (2 units), 0-0 exact score +600 (.5 unit) - This is a perfect storm for an under:  Two teams who lack offensive punch, play defense first, and both will be happy with a draw in this first round game - neither will feel a win is absolutely necessary.  Greece always plays defensively - and South Korea should do the same.  The longer this one stays scoreless, the more you will see these teams play for a draw. I do think Greece has a talent advantage here - and might just steal a goal -  and if they do score - watch the greeks go in to lockdown mode - so my predicted final score Greece 1 South Korea 0

4.  Argentina / Nigeria - Argentina to win -200 (2 units to win 1 unit) - The only thing holding me back on this game is that Argentina might not be firing on all cylenders this early in the tourney - I wish this game was later in the group - but Nigeria will be exposed here talentwise and tactically.  Just way too much talent on the Argentine side - and the undisciplined (although Swedish manager Lagerback could help) Nigerian side will have enough lapses in concentration to get beat.  Final score prediction Argentina 2 Nigeria 0.

5.  England / USA - Over 2.5 +105 (2.5 units) - Another perfect storm - this time for the over.  England has lots of firepower, but lots of problems on defense - and the USA is almost a carbon copy - like a twin that is far less talented. We should see lots of quality opporutnities on net - and both sides have the talent at forward to finish them.  The USA will most likely come out with 2 forwards (Altidore and probably Buddle) - and go out to attack.  England will also attack - but probably only Rooney up front - but that will be enough with an offensive minded midfield to tear up a defense that is disorganized.  Onyewu is the anchor here?  A guy who hasnt played for 6 months, and was questionable to begin with?  After this tournament - Milan will know why he is playing the last season of his contract for no money - its actually a bargain for Onyewu.  England should win fairly comfortably, but Im not quite comfortable laying the -200 in this first round game with a team that can let up goals.  Final score prediction - England 3 USA 1. 

GL all

About 75% of my bets go in to Pinny.