World Cup thoughts

2-5, +0.45u

France-Tunisia draw @ 3.90 (BetUS)

2-6, -0.55u. Classic bad beat right there.

Mexico-Saudi Arabia draw @ 4.30 (Bovada)

2-7, -1.55

Canada-Morocco X @ 3.50 (BetUS)

2-8, -2.55u

Ghana-Uruguay X @ 3.85 (Bovada)

Waiting to see what the odds do in S Korea-Portugal, but will be on the dog in some capacity.

S Korea @ 4.30 (BetUS)

Done for the day. 3-9, -0.25u

My methods involve looking at the odds record and making a determination of how often x happens, and how does this compare with the odds on offer? This is the crux of my book currently making the rounds at publishers.

People will be drawn to bet the favorites in this round because, well, of course. But how do the favorites actually perform as big favorites? In this round, the answer is, not particularly well.

There have been 28 matches in the Round of 16 involving favorites of 2.00 or under since 1998. Here is their record:

Two-plus-goal wins by favorites: 9
One-goal wins by favorites: 9
Draws: 9
Losses: 1

So, 32% of the time, your favorite will cover a spread of -1.5. 47% of the time, your favorite will win you money on a -1 bet.

What about the biggest mismatches? There have been nine over the past six World Cups where the underdog has odds of 8.00 or higher. The results:

Two-plus-goal wins by favorites: 3
One-goal wins by favorites: 3
Draws: 3
Losses: 0

So, 33% of the time, your favorite will cover a spread of -1.5. 33% of the time, your favorite will win you money on a -1 bet.

My pick for the early match is France-Poland draw @ 5.25 (BetUS). Getting 5.25 for something that has implied odds of 3.03 is the essence of value.

Would it be safer to take Poland +1.5 goals? Sure. But at odds of 1.87, would it be worth the payoff? Not really.

And to answer your other question, what do I feel in my gut? Queasy. Awful. My head tells me that France will easily cover a line of -1.5. But the thing is that I know the record. I know that Paraguay (9.50) drew against eventual champion France in 1998, Algeria (9.95) drew with eventual champion Germany in 2014, as did many other lesser squads in past rounds of 16.

England-Senegal draw @ 4.00 (Bovada)

Worth mentioning that during the past six Cups, the nine draws by big dogs at this stage have all seen the favorite win in extra time (five) or penalties (four). So only one of the favorites of 2.00 or under (out of 28) has failed to advance.

3-11, -2.25u

Swerving on S Korea; Brazil in this round have only been dropped points once (to Chile), and the highest-priced dog to pull it off was priced at 10.00, not the 13.00 of this match. 

Spain-Morocco draw @ 4.10 (Bovada)

4-11, +0.85.

I will not be on this evening's match. In fact, I may not have another bet in this WC, unless it's to bet on the overs in the 3rd-place match between...Netherlands and England? I fully expect a final in which...Brazil lose to France.