It's very difficult for a current champ to do well historically, also you have the Aussie had a history of winning epic event out of their depth; it’s part of their culture they take no non sense approach, 8 qualified in the row plus this last qualified here they took it through the most difficult path. For example played Peru at their national stadium and walked away with an ugly win, they pulled it off.
I like your thinking 
You're certainly right about Australia punching well above their weight in many sporting events but I strongly doubt they can overcome the huge class difference between the 2 sides. Besides, Australia's coach is Graham Arnold who's approach will be to try and hold out for a 0-0. They have practically zero goal threat that would trouble France, so the best they could hope for IMO is a 0-0, but even that is extremely unlikely.
Also, they didn't beat Peru in their stadium, they won a one-off playoff game that was played in Qatar.
By the numbers, 1st round upsets in the last 5 world cups in the 1st round have predominantly involved a European team as the victim and a CONCACAF team as the victor.
In those 5 world cups there were 15 upsets where the dog was priced over odds of 3.00 (+200).
In those 15 games 66% of the time it was a team from Europe who lost, while 33% of the time it was a CONCACAF team who won. 3 other confederations were responsible for 3 upsets of their own (EURO, CAF, AFC). CONEMBOL have just the 1 upset but their teams are rarely underdogs.
So under these parameters the games you would focus on would be:
Spain v Costa Rica
Belgium v Canada
I'd probably go with Canada as I think this Costa Rica side is one of the weakest that has been at a World Cup. But then upsets aren't suppose to be easy to predict otherwise we'd all back them.
Thank you for the nuggets ! Need steady dose of my doggy fix 
Feels like 11/22/22 has a nice ring to it for an upset or two 
Japan I agree, South Korea less so. They really haven't done anything since their famous run at home during 2002 WC, while Japan caused 2 of AFC's upsets in the last 5 tournaments.
Nice pick. Can two straight dogs win,?
Established in 1995,
will look into it
Hot Forum Topics
