EPL Post-WC Preview & Futures

EPL is back (soon)! While the World Cup was incredible, it's exciting to get back into league play. The World Cup break provided a nice opportunity to reset & review where each club sits in preparation of the rest of the season as 14-15 games is a perfect sample size. I will be focused heavily on England this season with most of my bankroll on the Premier League. This thread will be my preview of the rest of the EPL season with a short write-up on the Futures bets that I've locked in. I will start a separate thread for each week's matches. 

First, a few quick thoughts on the impact the World Cup will have on teams. In general, the schedule will be busier. This means that either more wear & tear on the first team OR more squad rotation. This will generally favor the bigger clubs, especially those with a deep bench. This may be especially relevant early on as teams return from the World Cup - teams with a lot of players, or players from countries that made a deep run, may be forced to rotate squads early this winter schedule.

This schedule will also mean there is more importance to how many competitions a team is still involved as coaches may be forced to pick or prioritize certain matches, at least moreso than a typical season. 

Below is a rough breakdown of the tiers of teams as I see it in the EPL for the rest of the season. This is based on quality, not standings or even where I see them finishing necessarily - more like a Power Ranking of sorts. And to be fair, beyond the elite and relegation battles, we are really splitting hairs...

League Contenders

Manchester City, Arsenal 

These two have clearly separated themselves as class of the league. City is still loaded and are fair favorites to win another title (seems fairly priced in most markets) but Arsenal have played very well. The Jesus injury is something to pay close attention to as that may test their depth, especially up front considering how efficient they've been in that regard.  

Champions League Contenders

Tottenham, Liverpool, Manchester United, Newcastle United

Newcastle are the surprise of this bunch and one of the things I'll be most interested to see is if they can sustain this level - if they can, they can qualify for the Champions League. Tottenham and Liverpool are the strongest here in my opinion and likely should qualify though. Manchester United is a big question mark with(out) Ronaldo - another team's form I'll be very curious about early on. They certainly have the quality, they just need to put it all together and sometimes getting rid of the ego is all that's needed for the locker room. 

Chelsea, West Ham United, Aston Villa, Brighton Hove & Albion

Another surprise here is likely Chelsea but they have just been awful considering their talent & budget. The coaching change didn't really have the impact they were hoping for and early transfer moves already appear to be focused on the future. BHA are deserving to be in this conversation as they've played well, which I will again be paying close attention if its sustainable. West Ham and Aston Villa have both played well enough and would be my picks to finish top 10 at this point - but again there's really not much separation between this group and the next.

Leeds United, Brentford, Leicester City, Wolverhampton, Crystal Palace

Splitting hairs here separating some of these teams but would expect Brentford and Wolves both to regress to the mean a bit, in opposite ways. Leeds probably the best of this group - all of which should be in the mix for the top half of the table conversation except maybe Wolves. 

Relegation Battle

Southampton, Everton, Nottingham Forest, Fulham, Bournemouth

Everton are a bit of a surprise to be in this conversation but they really have not played well - we will see if they can turn it around. Otherwise, not a huge surprise with these names other than maybe the amount of points Bournemouth has been able to accumulate already, that may be critical later this year (although, spoiler, I still am very low on them the rest of the way) 

 Final Table Prediction

1. Manchester City 91 points
2. Arsenal 89 points
3. Tottenham 71 points
4. Manchester United 68 points
5. Newcastle United 67 points
6. Liverpool 65 points
7. Chelsea 58 points
8. Brighton Hove & Albion 55 points
9. Aston Villa 49 points
10. West Ham United 48 points
11. Leeds United 48 points
12. Brentford 47 points
13. Crystal Palace 45 points
14. Leicester City 44 points
15. Fulham 40 points
16. Wolverhampton 37 points
17. Everton 37 points
18. Southampton 36 points
19. Nottingham Forest 33 points
20. Bournemouth 30 points

Will be positing the mid-season Futures bets I've locked in thus far as I have time to do writeups. For context, my betting sizes are fairly vanilla, a base bet of 1 unit to win 1 unit with larger bets of 1.5 units to win 1.5 units and a (rare) max size of 2 units to win 2 units. I then weight by the odds (i.e. 0.8 units to win 1.2 units if +150, or 1.5 units to win 0.5 units if -300). I do lean heavier on Futures bets due to their length. 

Bournemouth to be relegated -155 (risk 2.42 units to win 1.58 units)

Bournemouth to finish last +275 (risk 0.80 units to win 2.20 units)

First of all, a tip of the cap to this Bournemouth team for accumulating 16 points prior to the World Cup. Coming into the season they were strong favorites to go down. Unfortunately, I don't think much has changed here so I'm jumping at the better price. They've punched well above their weight but I don't see anything that points to this being sustainable. The results are not necessarily supported by performances. They are dead-last, by a long shot, in Net Expected Goals and haven't really done anything to improve the squad. Their propensity to leak goals will continue to make it difficult to get a result against any of the top half of the table. I think it's too much to ask for them to continue bringing home 3 points against the bottom of the league, which is what they'll need to do to stay up. 

@Moose6836

Thanks Moose. Hope to have a great season! 

It's certainly possible for Wolves to go down and their early season form certainly doesn't help them. I have them finishing anywhere between 15th and 19th depending on the scenario/model so won't argue with you. I do think they've played better than their results to date but sometimes that doesn't matter - there is a WINNING factor that is sometimes hard to quantify. Some teams have it, some teams don't. 

I don't have Nottingham staying up in any of my scenarios to be honest, the price was just too expensive to back them getting relegated. We will see. 

Tottenham to finish top 4 +125 (risk 1.78 units to win 2.22 units)

This play has a few angles here. It's clear Arsenal and City are "locks", so this is really a four-horse race for the final two spots: Tottenham, Newcastle, Liverpool, and United. I rate Tottenham the safest of the four for a few reasons. Their squad quality is very strong, on level-enough footing with Liverpool and United. Their quality of play has been strong too - only Newcastle boasting a better Net Expected Goals of the four. I do expect Newcastle to regress to the mean a little bit considering their lineups and the mid-to-late season schedule. There are certainly scenarios where Liverpool maximizes their potential and United rebound without Ronaldo to perform at a high level consistently.  It will be important for Spurs to get back into the groove quickly considering their depth of squad that were at the World Cup (and deep), but that is my only major concern. Regardless, I think Tottenham finish top 4 more than 50% of the time here so will gladly take the +odds. 

Crystal Palace to finish bottom half -143 (risk 1.18 units to win 0.82 units)

The middle of the table is always very congested in the EPL - you really have to be careful to pick your spots to find value but this one stood out to me the most. Palace sit in 10th place over break with a game in hand. Practically speaking they are really only going to be able to overtake Brentford and maybe BHA above them, so best case scenario is 8th place, and that's if they improve their run of play. But the downside is much more open as other than a few relegation teams, I don't see a lot separating Palace from the rest of the pack. They are 15th in Net Expected Goals through 14 games with a below-average squad from top to bottom and nothing else that really stands out. I don't see them being relegated, although it's certainly possible, but I certainly don't see a lot of scenarios where they stay in 10th or better the rest of the way. I peg the range of outcomes as 9th to 17th so willing to pay little bit of juice on this wager. 

Let me start by saying I don't expect this one to hit - it's shocking, I know, but I see a little bit of value so I couldn't pass it up....

Chelsea to finish bottom half +2900 (risk 0.07 units to win 1.93 units)

Chelsea have been bad this season so far. Tuchel lost his job early on but things haven't gotten any better. On paper, the squad is strong and should at least be competing for a European position - 6th or 7th at worst. Instead, they sit in 8th place. You'd think with the budget and squad depth this would be some unlucky or inefficient performances - but it's actually the opposite. They sit 14th in Net Expected Goals (sitting just behind Wolves, by the way) and have shown poor effectiveness in front of goal. Something serious needs to change for Chelsea to be competitive again with the top sides. I think Chelsea likely comes home around 8th place where they sit now, behind BHA, Newcastle, and the other "Big 5". But do I think there's at least a chance that the likes of West Ham, Aston Villa, Leeds, and/or Brentford can push them for points? Absolutely. And, another factor here is Europe. I think there's a scenario that if Chelsea do turn it around, they go "all in" on the Champions League - as they may not really care if they finish in 8th or 11th - that scenario would only help this wager. In a perfect world, I would've found a "not top 8" market but I didn't see anything and I certinaly don't want to pay big juice on "not top 6" so willing to put small stakes on something I think is within the realm of possibilities. 

EPL Futures Bets

Bournemouth to be relegated -155 (risk 2.42 units to win 1.58 units)

Bournemouth to finish last +275 (risk 0.80 units to win 2.20 units)

Tottenham to finish top 4 +125 (risk 1.78 units to win 2.22 units)

Crystal Palace to finish bottom half -143 (risk 1.18 units to win 0.82 units)

Chelsea to finish bottom half +2900 (risk 0.07 units to win 1.93 units)

Open for discussion... looking forward to a great second two/thirds of the season.

Another 10+ day EPL break means another opportunity to refresh and reset. I've locked in some additional Futures bets that I will detail here in a bit. 

First, based on performances through 17-18 games, below are my Power Rankings going forward for the rest of the team. This takes into account performance (recency weighted heavier), injuries, overall budget/squad quality, and remaining schedule. 

1. Manchester City

2. Arsenal

3. Newcastle United

4. Manchester United

5. Liverpool

6. Tottenham

7. Aston Villa

8. Brentford

9. Chelsea

10. West Ham United

11. Brighton & Hove Albion

12. Fulham

13. Leicester City

14. Southampton

15. Leeds United

16. Nottingham Forest

17. Crystal Palace

18. Wolverhampton

19. Everton

20. AFC Bournemouth

And based on that, I am projecting the following final table. To be fair, I usually run multiple scenarios so think of these numbers for show - in reality I have a range of points for each team that I see plausible which help to dictate my Futures. 

1. Manchester City 90
2. Arsenal 90
3. Manchester United 73
4. Newcastle United 72
5. Tottenham 65
6. Liverpool 64
7. Brighton & Hove Albion 56
8. Brentford 56
9. Chelsea 55
10. Aston Villa 53
11. Fulham 53
12. West Ham United 44
13. Crystal Palace 43
14. Leicester City 41
15. Leeds United 40
16. Nottingham Forest 38
17. Southampton 35
18. Wolverhampton 31
19. Everton 30
20. AFC Bournemouth 28

Wolves to be relegated +200 (risk 1.33 units to win 2.67 units)

Ironically, last time I posted I was eying Wolves to stay up as "value" but held off - and to their credit they've performed. But their recent performances can't be over-weighted especially considering the teams they were against. The reality here is that Wolves still sit int the relegation zone and I have them pegged as a bottom 3 team. I don't see very many scenarios that they stay up to be honest but am getting a great price. 

Brentford to finish top half -112 (risk 2.11 units to win 1.90 units)

One of the surprises of the season has been the performance of this team. They've quietly become giant killers and I don't see anything changing. When you look at the league - there is a very clear top 11 and bottom 9 so I don't see the realm of possibilities to be below 11th place - but the ceiling here is likely 7th place with Fulham and Brighton being in their "tier". In the end, I'm getting a clear top 11 team, currently sitting in 9th, at essentially even money to finish in the Top 10. Great value.  

Arsenal to win the league +175 (risk 1.09 units to win 1.91 units)

To be clear, I think City are the better team at this point in the season - they've just dropped more points than they probably should have. However, a 5-point lead is a big deal. Arsenal are really good - the price on this bet seems to imply they may not even be the second-best team in the league for the rest of the season - but I see this as a legitimate two-horse race. City have more depth but also more fixtures to worry about (EFL Cup, Champions League). Arsenal should continue to play well and take points against everyone else to keep pace. I think this could come down to the last few weeks and/or a key injury here or there and ultimately this price is too good to pass up for a coin flip. 

Aston Villa to finish top half +125 (risk 0.89 units to win 1.11 units)

I said in my Brentford write-up that there is a clear top 11 in my mind... that same analysis plays into this bet. Aston Villa are in that tier and are on par with Fulham for the last spot. Their form has been strong recently and I see no reason they can't finish above Fulham. Again, this comes down to a range of 8th to 11th and plus money - pure value play. 

EPL Futures Bets

Bournemouth to be relegated -155 (risk 2.42 units to win 1.58 units) [Dec. 20]

Bournemouth to finish last +275 (risk 0.80 units to win 2.20 units) [Dec. 20]

Tottenham to finish top 4 +125 (risk 1.78 units to win 2.22 units) [Dec. 20]

Crystal Palace to finish bottom half -143 (risk 1.18 units to win 0.82 units) [Dec. 20]

Chelsea to finish bottom half +2900 (risk 0.07 units to win 1.93 units) [Dec. 20]

Wolves to be relegated +200 (risk 1.33 units to win 2.67 units) [Jan. 10]

Brentford to finish top half -112 (risk 2.11 units to win 1.90 units) [Jan. 10]

Arsenal to win the league +175 (risk 1.09 units to win 1.91 units) [Jan. 10]

Aston Villa to finish top half +125 (risk 0.89 units to win 1.11 units) [Jan. 10]

Open for discussion 

We've got another short break in the EPL so I will be looking at the Futures market again the next couple of days. 

First things first - updated Power Rankings based on games played so far. As a reminder, this is not where I see the teams finishing. This is how I would rank the teams in terms of quality for the rest of the season, taking into consideration overall performance, recent form, injuries, transfers, overall budget/squad quality, and remaining schedule (quality and number of games). This is the baseline for my bets but is not the end all be all.

1. Manchester City
2. Arsenal
3. Newcastle Utd
4. Manchester Utd
5. Liverpool
6. Tottenham
7. Brighton (+4)
8. Brentford
9. West Ham (+1)
10. Chelsea (-1)
11. Aston Villa (-4)
12. Fulham
13. Leeds United (+2)
14. Nott'ham Forest (+2)
15. Leicester City (-2)
16. Southampton (-2)
17. Wolves (+1)
18. Crystal Palace (-1)
19. Everton
20. Bournemouth

I'll be back later this week with short write-ups on anything I lock in. Currently eyeing 4 potential plays on first glance... more research and stress testing to be done. 

Newcastle United to finish top 4 -134 (risk 2.29 units to win 1.71 units)

Newcastle have been awesome this year. They sit tied for third in the table with Manchester United and are 3rd in Net Expected Goals - they are legit. With Liverpool and Chelsea both clearly a step behind, the top 4 really comes down to 5 teams with Newcastle, Manchester United, and Tottenham vying for the last two spots. I rank Newcastle just ahead of United, but both are a tier ahead of Tottenham under current form. I find it very hard to see a scenario that Newcastle gets passed by both of those teams and am paying just a little juice. They do have 1-2 more fixtures ahead due to their run in the EFL Cup but having already been eliminated from the FA Cup and no European Football, they don't have any heavier of a fixture load than their rivals.  This is a great team, in a great position, with a pretty good price - I just don't see very many scenarios that they don't finish in the top 4. Big bet. 

Note: this is a completely independent bet from Tottenham top 4 posted on December 20. That bet is likely a loser but that's okay - its a sunk cost and won't prevent me from making this wager that I think is a winner. A lot has changed since that bet and you need to be willing & ready to accept that, adjust, and continue to analyze. 

Brentford to finish top half -150 (risk 1.20 units to win 0.80 units)

See post #14 for the general sentiment on this play. Ultimately, not much has changed and I'm still seeing value. Since that post, Brentford registered 4 more points over 2 games putting them in 8th place. Their performances on the pitch have matched the results as they sit 9th in Net Expected Goals, and 8th when weighting recent form heavier, so I don't have any concerns of regression here... this is where they belong. There is still a clear top 11 of the table so in order for this bet to lose they would need to finish below both Fulham (trail by 1 point but a game in hand) and Aston Villa (lead by 2 points) in addition to Liverpool, Chelsea, and Brighton. While this is possible, it doesn't seem all that likely to me. This team is still being undervalued & underappreciated. Normally would be a 2-unit play but since I already have the position I am reducing it down to a smaller size. 

Everton to be relegated -167 = NO BET

Just a few quick words on this play - everything on paper makes this a great bet in my eyes. The results/points have not been there as they sit tied for last, two points away from safety. And, the performance has been just as bad - they are 19th in Net Expected Goals this season with performances trending worse over the past 12 games. I have them being relegated under current form at over 80% of my scenarios here. But, the change in coach is a big change. Sometimes a new coach forces the players to prove themselves again, creating better performances and grittier results. Sometimes the new coach just reconfirms that the squad quality and players were the problem. Either way, this is a big enough wild card that I'm not willing to guess on the impact. I'm not saying that Lampard was the problem necessarily - I'm just saying that I don't know and it's not somewhere I'm willing to put my money. 

EPL Futures Bets

Bournemouth to be relegated -155 (risk 2.42 units to win 1.58 units) [Dec. 20]

Bournemouth to finish last +275 (risk 0.80 units to win 2.20 units) [Dec. 20]

Brentford to finish top half -112 (risk 2.11 units to win 1.90 units) [Jan. 10] 

Brentford to finish top half -150 (risk 1.20 units to win 0.80 units) [Jan. 25]

Newcastle United to finish top 4 -134 (risk 2.29 units to win 1.71 units) [Jan. 25]

Wolves to be relegated +200 (risk 1.33 units to win 2.67 units) [Jan. 10]

Tottenham to finish top 4 +125 (risk 1.78 units to win 2.22 units) [Dec. 20]

Crystal Palace to finish bottom half -143 (risk 1.18 units to win 0.82 units) [Dec. 20]

Chelsea to finish bottom half +2900 (risk 0.07 units to win 1.93 units) [Dec. 20]

Arsenal to win the league +175 (risk 1.09 units to win 1.91 units) [Jan. 10]

Aston Villa to finish top half +125 (risk 0.89 units to win 1.11 units) [Jan. 10]

Adding other Futures bets (posted in other threads, or new) to this thread to keep the theme for those that care. Rather keep them all in one place and will use other threads for game "weeks" only. Happy to discuss any of them or add details & reasoning. 

Championship Futures Bets

Swansea to finish top 6 +400 (risk 0.60 to win 2.40) [Jan. 12]

Hull City to finish top 10 +300 (risk 0.75 to win 2.25) [Jan. 12]

Blackpool to be relegated +120 (risk 1.36 to win 1.64) [Jan. 12]

Blackpool to be relegated +100 (risk 1.50 to win 1.50) [Jan. 25]

Ligue 1 Futures Bets

Lille to finish top 3 +450 (risk 0.36 to win 1.64) [Jan. 25]

Troyes to be relegated +275 (risk 0.53 to win 1.47) [Jan. 25]

Bundesliga Futures Bets

FC Koln to finish 10 +110 (risk 0.95 to win 1.05) [Jan. 26]

Back for some clean up... been super busy and unable to post the past few months but Futures continue to be my bread & butter so wanted to close the loop on the season at least. 

I'll finalize each league as they officially finish although each look to be small gains. Still can't believe Arsenal aren't winning the league and Bournemouth are staying up, but what can you do...

Swansea to finish top 6 +400 (risk 0.60 to win 2.40) [Jan. 12] 

Hull City to finish top 10 +300 (risk 0.75 to win 2.25) [Jan. 12]

Blackpool to be relegated +120 (risk 1.36 to win 1.64) [Jan. 12] 

Blackpool to be relegated +100 (risk 1.50 to win 1.50) [Jan. 25] 

Championship Futures Bets: 2-2-0 +1.79 units