

Hot pitchers
-- Lilly is 1-0, 2.70 in his last three starts.
-- Leake is 1-0, 3.00 in two starts since coming back from AAA.
-- Vazquez is 1-0, 2.84 in his last three starts. Milwaukee won last five Greinke starts (4-0, 4.80) scoring 33 runs.
-- Lincecum is 2-0, 3.22 in his last three starts. Lannan is 1-0, 0.69 in his last couple starts.
-- Matusz allowed one run in 5.2 IP in his first '11 start.
-- Tomlin is 3-1, 4.26 in his last four starts.
-- Lewis is 3-1, 2.17 in his last five starts.
-- Pineda is 2-0, 1.38 in his last four starts.
-- Paulino blanked the Angels for five innings in his first '11 start.
-- Chatwood has a 2.21 RA in his last three starts.
Cold pitchers
-- Lee is 2-3, 4.20 in his last six starts.
-- Garza is 2-4, 4.99 in his last eight starts.
-- Mortensen is 0-3, 6.48 in his last three starts. Richard is 1-6, 6.43 in his last nine starts.
-- Gonzalez is 0-1, 4.00 in his last three starts.
-- Twins lost last five Baker starts (0-2, 5.02).
-- Scherzer is 0-2, 10.68 in his last three starts.
-- White Sox are 1-10 when Danks starts (0-6, 6.85 in last seven).
-- Morrow is 0-1, 5.50 in his last three starts.
-- Price is 1-2, 4.39 in his last four starts.
Totals
-- Under is 7-3 in Lee's last ten starts.
-- Over is 10-3-1 in Cincinnati's last fourteen home games.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Vazquez starts, 4-0 in Greinke's last four.
-- Under is 16-6 in Colorado's last twenty-two road games.
-- Three of last four Lincecum starts went over the total.
-- Eight of last ten games at Camden Yards went over the total.
-- Four of last five Minnesota road games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Scherzer starts went over the total.
-- Six of White Sox' last seven home games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Morrow starts went over the total.
-- Under is 7-0-1 in Angels' last eight home games.
Hot Teams
-- Dodgers won five of their last seven games.
-- Cincinnati is 10-5 in its last fifteen home games.
-- Milwaukee won 12 of its last 15 games.
-- Giants won four of their last five games.
-- San Diego won seven of its last nine games.
-- Minnesota won its last four games, allowing six runs.
-- White Sox won six of their last nine home games. Mariners won 14 of their last 18 games.
-- Rangers won 11 of their last 14 games. Detroit won six of seven.
-- Blue Jays won seven of their last ten road games.
Cold Teams
-- Phillies lost five of their last seven games.
-- Marlins lost six of their last seven games.
-- Cubs lost eight of their last nine games.
-- Washington lost 13 of its last 18 games.
-- Colorado lost 12 of its last 16 games.
-- Cleveland lost nine of its last twelve games, six in row at home.
-- Orioles lost seven of their last nine games. Oakland lost its last six games, outscored 42-22.
-- Kansas City lost 12 of its last 15 games.
-- Angels are 10-13 in their last 23 home games. Tampa Bay lost 11 of its last 16 games.
Hot pitchers
-- Lilly is 1-0, 2.70 in his last three starts.
-- Leake is 1-0, 3.00 in two starts since coming back from AAA.
-- Vazquez is 1-0, 2.84 in his last three starts. Milwaukee won last five Greinke starts (4-0, 4.80) scoring 33 runs.
-- Lincecum is 2-0, 3.22 in his last three starts. Lannan is 1-0, 0.69 in his last couple starts.
-- Matusz allowed one run in 5.2 IP in his first '11 start.
-- Tomlin is 3-1, 4.26 in his last four starts.
-- Lewis is 3-1, 2.17 in his last five starts.
-- Pineda is 2-0, 1.38 in his last four starts.
-- Paulino blanked the Angels for five innings in his first '11 start.
-- Chatwood has a 2.21 RA in his last three starts.
Cold pitchers
-- Lee is 2-3, 4.20 in his last six starts.
-- Garza is 2-4, 4.99 in his last eight starts.
-- Mortensen is 0-3, 6.48 in his last three starts. Richard is 1-6, 6.43 in his last nine starts.
-- Gonzalez is 0-1, 4.00 in his last three starts.
-- Twins lost last five Baker starts (0-2, 5.02).
-- Scherzer is 0-2, 10.68 in his last three starts.
-- White Sox are 1-10 when Danks starts (0-6, 6.85 in last seven).
-- Morrow is 0-1, 5.50 in his last three starts.
-- Price is 1-2, 4.39 in his last four starts.
Totals
-- Under is 7-3 in Lee's last ten starts.
-- Over is 10-3-1 in Cincinnati's last fourteen home games.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Vazquez starts, 4-0 in Greinke's last four.
-- Under is 16-6 in Colorado's last twenty-two road games.
-- Three of last four Lincecum starts went over the total.
-- Eight of last ten games at Camden Yards went over the total.
-- Four of last five Minnesota road games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Scherzer starts went over the total.
-- Six of White Sox' last seven home games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Morrow starts went over the total.
-- Under is 7-0-1 in Angels' last eight home games.
Hot Teams
-- Dodgers won five of their last seven games.
-- Cincinnati is 10-5 in its last fifteen home games.
-- Milwaukee won 12 of its last 15 games.
-- Giants won four of their last five games.
-- San Diego won seven of its last nine games.
-- Minnesota won its last four games, allowing six runs.
-- White Sox won six of their last nine home games. Mariners won 14 of their last 18 games.
-- Rangers won 11 of their last 14 games. Detroit won six of seven.
-- Blue Jays won seven of their last ten road games.
Cold Teams
-- Phillies lost five of their last seven games.
-- Marlins lost six of their last seven games.
-- Cubs lost eight of their last nine games.
-- Washington lost 13 of its last 18 games.
-- Colorado lost 12 of its last 16 games.
-- Cleveland lost nine of its last twelve games, six in row at home.
-- Orioles lost seven of their last nine games. Oakland lost its last six games, outscored 42-22.
-- Kansas City lost 12 of its last 15 games.
-- Angels are 10-13 in their last 23 home games. Tampa Bay lost 11 of its last 16 games.
One of the few advantages that MLB bettors have over oddsmakers is handicapping umpires.
Oddsmakers don’t spend much - if any - time at all factoring in who is behind home plate when setting the odds for a particular day’s games.
Bettors who know their umpires well can find added value when betting totals. Many umps have pronounced histories and trend either over or under.
Here is a look at the Top 5 over umpires so far in 2011:
Sam Holbrook: 90 percent (9 over, 1 under)
Holbrook began his career as a Major League umpire in 1998 and worked his first World Series last season.
Of all the umpires on this list, Holbrook has the strongest reputation as an over umpire. The over is 131-111 since 2002 when Holbrook is behind the plate and he’s had more overs than unders in four of the last five seasons.
While the sample size is still relatively small (Holbrook is generally behind home plate between 30 and 35 games per year), his strike percentage (60.75) is 1.33 percent lower than his career average and his walks are up, too. That’s something worth monitoring as the season progresses.
Scott Barry: 88.9 percent (8 over, 1 under)
Barry has been umpiring big-league games since 2006 but didn’t achieve full-time status until earlier this year.
Few umpires have been as controversial as Barry, who ejected three All-Stars in less than a week last August - Ivan Rodriguez, Ryan Zimmerman and Ryan Howard.
Barry has only called games with single-digit totals so far, and the over is 6-1 in games where the total is eight runs or less. It will be interesting to see if more unders start hitting as Barry calls games with higher totals.
In his brief career, Barry hasn’t trended one way or the other. He’s had 63 overs and 60 unders. Given his personality and his seeming desire to be a control freak, the guess here is that he eventually evolves into an under umpire.
Tim McClelland: 80 percent (8 over, 2 under)
McClelland is one of the most recognizable umpires in baseball, having been involved in a number of controversies and dustups, most notably the Sammy Sosa corked bat incident in 2003.
From a betting perspective, though, McClelland couldn’t possibly be more anonymous. He hasn’t trended over or under throughout his career (the over is 140-134 since 2002) and his numbers have been fairly consistent across the board.
The under was 16-14 last year, likely because the average runs per game when McClelland was behind the plate was 8.36 - about 1.34 runs lower than his career average.
Hunter Wendelstedt: 80 percent (8 over, 2 under)
Much like McClelland, Wendelstedt, an 11-year veteran, isn’t really known as an over or under umpire. In fact, of the 272 games he’s umped behind the plate, the over and under have each come in 136 times.
Wendelstedt has, however, trended under in the last five years, as the under has come in more than the over four times during that span.
This year, Wendelstedt’s two unders have come in games when the total was 7.5 runs. The over is 3-0 when the total is nine runs or more.
Tim Tschida: 77.8 percent (7 over, 2 under)
Of umpires who have called at least eight games, nobody has a lower strike percentage (60.1 percent) and a higher average runs per game (11.7) than 25-year veteran Tschida.
The high scoring comes despite Tschida calling games with mostly low totals. Five of his games have had a total of eight runs or less, and the over is 4-1 in those games.
One of the few advantages that MLB bettors have over oddsmakers is handicapping umpires.
Oddsmakers don’t spend much - if any - time at all factoring in who is behind home plate when setting the odds for a particular day’s games.
Bettors who know their umpires well can find added value when betting totals. Many umps have pronounced histories and trend either over or under.
Here is a look at the Top 5 over umpires so far in 2011:
Sam Holbrook: 90 percent (9 over, 1 under)
Holbrook began his career as a Major League umpire in 1998 and worked his first World Series last season.
Of all the umpires on this list, Holbrook has the strongest reputation as an over umpire. The over is 131-111 since 2002 when Holbrook is behind the plate and he’s had more overs than unders in four of the last five seasons.
While the sample size is still relatively small (Holbrook is generally behind home plate between 30 and 35 games per year), his strike percentage (60.75) is 1.33 percent lower than his career average and his walks are up, too. That’s something worth monitoring as the season progresses.
Scott Barry: 88.9 percent (8 over, 1 under)
Barry has been umpiring big-league games since 2006 but didn’t achieve full-time status until earlier this year.
Few umpires have been as controversial as Barry, who ejected three All-Stars in less than a week last August - Ivan Rodriguez, Ryan Zimmerman and Ryan Howard.
Barry has only called games with single-digit totals so far, and the over is 6-1 in games where the total is eight runs or less. It will be interesting to see if more unders start hitting as Barry calls games with higher totals.
In his brief career, Barry hasn’t trended one way or the other. He’s had 63 overs and 60 unders. Given his personality and his seeming desire to be a control freak, the guess here is that he eventually evolves into an under umpire.
Tim McClelland: 80 percent (8 over, 2 under)
McClelland is one of the most recognizable umpires in baseball, having been involved in a number of controversies and dustups, most notably the Sammy Sosa corked bat incident in 2003.
From a betting perspective, though, McClelland couldn’t possibly be more anonymous. He hasn’t trended over or under throughout his career (the over is 140-134 since 2002) and his numbers have been fairly consistent across the board.
The under was 16-14 last year, likely because the average runs per game when McClelland was behind the plate was 8.36 - about 1.34 runs lower than his career average.
Hunter Wendelstedt: 80 percent (8 over, 2 under)
Much like McClelland, Wendelstedt, an 11-year veteran, isn’t really known as an over or under umpire. In fact, of the 272 games he’s umped behind the plate, the over and under have each come in 136 times.
Wendelstedt has, however, trended under in the last five years, as the under has come in more than the over four times during that span.
This year, Wendelstedt’s two unders have come in games when the total was 7.5 runs. The over is 3-0 when the total is nine runs or more.
Tim Tschida: 77.8 percent (7 over, 2 under)
Of umpires who have called at least eight games, nobody has a lower strike percentage (60.1 percent) and a higher average runs per game (11.7) than 25-year veteran Tschida.
The high scoring comes despite Tschida calling games with mostly low totals. Five of his games have had a total of eight runs or less, and the over is 4-1 in those games.
The Brewers look to take advantage of a Florida team that is 1-4 in Javier Vazquez' last 5 starts. Milwaukee is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Brewers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-130). Here are all of today's picks.
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Mortensen) 14.714; San Diego (Richard) 15.803 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 6 Vegas Line: San Diego (-110); 7 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-110); Under |
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Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gonzalez) 14.520; Baltimore (Matusz) 15.410 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line: Baltimore (-110); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-110); Under |
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Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 17.593; Texas (Lewis) 16.177 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Texas (-155); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+135); Under |
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Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Pineda) 16.649; White Sox (Danks) 15.778 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-110); 8 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-110); Over |
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Dunkel Index:Today's MLB PicksMilwaukee at FloridaThe Brewers look to take advantage of a Florida team that is 1-4 in Javier Vazquez' last 5 starts. Milwaukee is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Brewers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-130). Here are all of today's picks.
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