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2010 NCAA Fave/Over - Dog/Under % Correlation Parlays Thread

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Posted: #551

MILK

Would the Oklahoma St/ UL La 1st half -14/31 be a play for you if you could? because I can make those plays.

 
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Posted: #552
yes if you can play it, thats a play.

I even played the nebraska game tonight. 1St half
 
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Posted: #553
were you able to get it at -7. my book went down to -6.5
 
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Posted: #554

Quote Originally Posted by kkirby99:

I did a little looking into the second half bets. I noticed that if you played the second halves of games that failed to win in the first half, based on the assumption that the games were still competitive at the half, as best as I could tell they were 17-9 so far this season. At that win% they are as profitable as the first halves. Remains to be seen if the % holds up but if you're working under the assumption that the game is still competitive and they won't be letting up at the end of the game it stands to reason that you would get the same win %.

Even at 65%, it doesn't seem worth the risk to chase a first half loss.IMO full games and 1H are the only way to go.

 
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Posted: #555
Quote Originally Posted by JMon:

Even at 65%, it doesn't seem worth the risk to chase a first half loss.IMO full games and 1H are the only way to go

Yeah you gotta pick and choose your spots. As you can see i've played more 2nd halfs that hit the 1st half than lost but i agree 1st halfs and games are much more successful as you can see from my numbers this year so far. Its the whole risk reward kind of thing. It paid off last night though
 
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Posted: #556

Hey guys! I just have a few quick questions. First of all, I would like to say that I have literally read all of the pages on this thread. I really like the system and I go to the University of Kentucky, so I have a local who takes these. My question is this, I get the whole 40% thing and the favorite and over and dog and the under. I have been following this the first 3 weeks of the season and last week I decided to try it out because I was confident in it. I only bet 40 a parlay since I'm poor right now and dont have as big of a bankroll as you all. With that being said, this weekend I lost about 200 dollars. I thought I did the system right, but I lost, and by the looks of it you all won! Which is great haha but still I dont understand how I lost. Granted, I do not play halves. Could someone PM me or explain to me the exact rules of the system? Exact rules meaning should I only play 40% and 50% or do I play everything over 40%? I think that is why I may have lost because I played every single game that was over 40%! Sorry for the long post, but I want to try this out again this week and if I do it wrong I'm sure I will lose again! Well thanks for the time guys I really appreciate all the time people put into this and also helping others!

 

GLTA

 
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Posted: #557
Quote Originally Posted by TwinTebow:

Hey guys! I just have a few quick questions. First of all, I would like to say that I have literally read all of the pages on this thread. I really like the system and I go to the University of Kentucky, so I have a local who takes these. My question is this, I get the whole 40% thing and the favorite and over and dog and the under. I have been following this the first 3 weeks of the season and last week I decided to try it out because I was confident in it. I only bet 40 a parlay since I'm poor right now and dont have as big of a bankroll as you all. With that being said, this weekend I lost about 200 dollars. I thought I did the system right, but I lost, and by the looks of it you all won! Which is great haha but still I dont understand how I lost. Granted, I do not play halves. Could someone PM me or explain to me the exact rules of the system? Exact rules meaning should I only play 40% and 50% or do I play everything over 40%? I think that is why I may have lost because I played every single game that was over 40%! Sorry for the long post, but I want to try this out again this week and if I do it wrong I'm sure I will lose again! Well thanks for the time guys I really appreciate all the time people put into this and also helping others!

 

GLTA



You should have compare your plays with the plays that they guys here post to make sure you are on the right page...All the info about this system is right here in this thread..Read from page one again....Lazy people dont make money off sports mate...bol
 
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Posted: #558
Quote Originally Posted by TwinTebow:

Hey guys! I just have a few quick questions. First of all, I would like to say that I have literally read all of the pages on this thread. I really like the system and I go to the University of Kentucky, so I have a local who takes these. My question is this, I get the whole 40% thing and the favorite and over and dog and the under. I have been following this the first 3 weeks of the season and last week I decided to try it out because I was confident in it. I only bet 40 a parlay since I'm poor right now and dont have as big of a bankroll as you all. With that being said, this weekend I lost about 200 dollars. I thought I did the system right, but I lost, and by the looks of it you all won! Which is great haha but still I dont understand how I lost. Granted, I do not play halves. Could someone PM me or explain to me the exact rules of the system? Exact rules meaning should I only play 40% and 50% or do I play everything over 40%? I think that is why I may have lost because I played every single game that was over 40%! Sorry for the long post, but I want to try this out again this week and if I do it wrong I'm sure I will lose again! Well thanks for the time guys I really appreciate all the time people put into this and also helping others!

 

GLTA


yes all plays over 40% are played, my book doesnt allow me to parlay ADDED games but that only like 1 or 2 a week.  last week we had a draw and your book depending  on the line might of given you a loss.  we usually post all plays on friday or saturday before kickoff.  the most likely plays for this week have already been posted.  MY book has not posted totals yet so I have to wait to lock anything in, but if it hits 40% then its a play...
 
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Posted: #559
Quote Originally Posted by bwcareer:



Hoop PM me. I live in Texas as well. I may can help you out.

bwcareer,

hey, i tried to pm you, but had to add you as a friend first.

i live in houston. where you at?

and don't listen to these guys. they are complete idiots as to the full potential of this system (which i've been using for 4 years).
 
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Posted: #560
man alot of 1H plays this week...too bad i can only play one b/c of the limits my book puts on me...but man A LOT of plays, we could be in for a big weekend b/c there is also a number of whole games...

1st HALFS

 Oklahoma State
@UL Lafayette  -14 / 31 (added gm)

 Central Michigan
@Virginia Tech   -12.5 / 27.5

 Indiana
@Ohio State   -13 / 28

 Minnesota
@Wisconsin  -13 / 29

 Tennessee
@Georgia  -7 / 24 (my play)

 Colorado State
@Air Force  -14 / 24

 Memphis
@Louisville  -10 / 26.5

 UNLV
@West Virginia  -17 / 24.5

 Akron
@Kent State   -10 / 24

 Wyoming
@Texas Christian  -20 / 25.5

 Oregon
@Washington State -21 / 35.5

 Eastern Michigan
@Vanderbilt  -16.5 / 27

 Miami (Ohio)
@Cincinnati   -10 / 26.5

 Toledo
@Boise State  -23.5 / 29.5

 Hawaii
@Fresno State -6.5 / 32 (borderline play)

 San Jose State
@Nevada   -23.5 / 30

 
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Posted: #561
Quote Originally Posted by hoop121:


bwcareer,

hey, i tried to pm you, but had to add you as a friend first.

i live in houston. where you at?

and don't listen to these guys. they are complete idiots as to the full potential of this system (which i've been using for 4 years).

 

you're a douche. contribute to the thread if you have this "full potential system".  Sorry for not wanting to give out a locals information, especially if my local in across the country. you shady douchebag.

 
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Posted: #562
Quote Originally Posted by JFISH:

 

you're a douche. contribute to the thread if you have this "full potential system".  Sorry for not wanting to give out a locals information, especially if my local in across the country. you shady douchebag.


only play games 35%-70% and don't play second halves.

there's your contribution. i've got a lot more, but you gotta pay up for that.

and telling by how you hide behind your keyboard and talk crap about people i can tell that's not going to happen.

i do this professionally. i don't need to be on this board 12 hours a day like you. i'll take care of those who take care of me. enough said.


 
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Posted: #563
MILK my book still has Nebrask at 6.5, what do you think??
 
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Posted: #564
Quote Originally Posted by MILKMAN0923:

man alot of 1H plays this week...too bad i can only play one b/c of the limits my book puts on me...but man A LOT of plays, we could be in for a big weekend b/c there is also a number of whole games...

1st HALFS

 Oklahoma State
@UL Lafayette  -14 / 31 (added gm)

 Central Michigan
@Virginia Tech   -12.5 / 27.5

 Indiana
@Ohio State   -13 / 28

 Minnesota
@Wisconsin  -13 / 29

 Tennessee
@Georgia  -7 / 24 (my play)

 Colorado State
@Air Force  -14 / 24

 Memphis
@Louisville  -10 / 26.5

 UNLV
@West Virginia  -17 / 24.5

 Akron
@Kent State   -10 / 24

 Wyoming
@Texas Christian  -20 / 25.5

 Oregon
@Washington State -21 / 35.5

 Eastern Michigan
@Vanderbilt  -16.5 / 27

 Miami (Ohio)
@Cincinnati   -10 / 26.5

 Toledo
@Boise State  -23.5 / 29.5

 Hawaii
@Fresno State -6.5 / 32 (borderline play)

 San Jose State
@Nevada   -23.5 / 30



milkman, good work on posting this. but if your only play is the tennessee game then i HIGHLY recommend laying off of it. stick with a game inside the parameters of the system. if you do this you're not gambling. if you go outside of it then you are. and i'm serious about the not gambling. you won't lose if you stay inside the system. 
 
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Posted: #565

Quote Originally Posted by butta01:



You should have compare your plays with the plays that they guys here post to make sure you are on the right page...All the info about this system is right here in this thread..Read from page one again....Lazy people dont make money off sports mate...bol

 

As I stated in my post, I did read the entire thread so clearly its not laziness. I was trying to see if I missed something. Thanks for the help milkman, I appreciate it

 
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Posted: #566
Jmon, it's not a chase. You'd still flat bet the second half. It just opens up new opportunities for the math to work for you. Those games that fail in the first half are going to be competitive and the second halves should play out normally. If I can identify 5 more opportunities to play the system every week, that means 3 more winners at least every week on average and that will increase the bottom line. Just an observation.
 
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Posted: #567
Quote Originally Posted by hoop121:


only play games 35%-70% and don't play second halves.

there's your contribution. i've got a lot more, but you gotta pay up for that.

and telling by how you hide behind your keyboard and talk crap about people i can tell that's not going to happen.

i do this professionally. i don't need to be on this board 12 hours a day like you. i'll take care of those who take care of me. enough said.




not doubting you but how do you expect to pay or be paid by someone in another state?  how could you trust that person to pay up, how do you expect them to trust you?  you would be better off going to a local bar or poker room to find a bookie, online is not the best place b/c you cant judge anyone on here...just my opinion...everyone is here to share info and find a way to beat the books...if you have other info please explain...we are looking for the best profitable way to make money.


As far as the 1H goes, I dont use a percentage, I use Kirbys method of playing anything with a spread of at least -7 and a total under 35 unless the spread is really high.  But my local doesnt allow me to parlay 1st halfs with a spread over -8.5, so I sometimes play -6.5, always -7, -7.5, -8 and so on....all my plays this week are going to be on full games....so far using my peramiters that my book allows im 14-3 (+820), not sure how the others are doing that have no limits on there plays..
 
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Posted: #568
Quote Originally Posted by hoop121:


only play games 35%-70% and don't play second halves.

there's your contribution. i've got a lot more, but you gotta pay up for that.

and telling by how you hide behind your keyboard and talk crap about people i can tell that's not going to happen.

i do this professionally. i don't need to be on this board 12 hours a day like you. i'll take care of those who take care of me. enough said.


you hurled the insult first you clown of a man. and you can beat it with the tout services you low life. With such expertise in sports gambling, one would think you would have a local, or even understand that asking about a local in a forum would draw criticism... you douche.

 
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Posted: #569
Quote Originally Posted by JFISH:

MILK my book still has Nebrask at 6.5, what do you think??


yea my book has -6.5 also, taking a CHANCE here...like I said lastnight -6.5 is the same as -7 to me, just avoids a push...
 
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Posted: #570

i may lay off this one and see what the second half lines are... do not want to get greedy

 
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Posted: #571
Quote Originally Posted by JFISH:

i may lay off this one and see what the second half lines are... do not want to get greedy



yea might be the best thing...i just checked and i've played 6 spread with -6.5 in the last 4 weeks and im 4-2, some of those were also 2H so not the best angle...man cant wait till saturday...A lot of games in the 40 - 70% range...none over 70%
 
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Posted: #572
im so pumped for tomorrow. Doubling up on a couple games for 1h. Hopefully my book keeps payin up
 
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Posted: #573
i just got nebraska -7 24 over 1h    this week 0-1  1h
 
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Posted: #574
my line went to 7 so im on it.... 7/24 just cant lay off....
 
 
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Posted: #575
nm layed off it... good luck milk
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