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2011 NCAAF Strategy

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Posted: #1
Well here we go. Tomorrow is the first day of college football. I can't really give you an exact formula of how I determine which games are the best picks, but I am working on some numbers you can crunch to help narrow. Much of this is based on a relative power index, strength, opponent, player performance. Tread lightly these first few weeks.

0 - 0 - 0


Wisconsin -35
TCU -4.5
Ohio State -34
Western Michigan +13.5
 
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Posted: #2

Exact same as statfox picks....

CFB | 9/1/2011 8:00:00 PM Line: WISCONSIN -35.5 StatFox PowerLine: WISCONSIN  -43 Edge On: WISCONSIN (7.5)

CFB | 9/2/2011 8:00:00 PM
Line: TCU -4 StatFox PowerLine: TCU  -20
Edge On: TCU (16)
 
CFB | 9/3/2011 12:00:00 PM
Line: OHIO ST -34 StatFox PowerLine: OHIO ST  -53
Edge On: OHIO ST (19)
 
CFB | 9/3/2011 3:30:00 PM
Line: W MICHIGAN 13.5 StatFox PowerLine: W MICHIGAN  +0
Edge On: W MICHIGAN (13.5)
 
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Posted: #3
What the hell is statfox? What is the address?
 
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Holy shit, dude that site is awesome. How have I never heard of it?
I use this site. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/


Sept 01 - WISCONSIN -35.5 (H39 "A" GAME) PENDING
Sept 02 - TCU -4.5 (V24 "A" GAME) PENDING
Sept 03 - OHIO STATE -34 (H49 "A" GAME) PENDING
Sept 03 - WESTERN MICHIGAN +13.5 (V39 "A" GAME) PENDING

 
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Posted: #5

Just looking on statfox but where do you guys see their 'picks' or 'edge on'? 

Thanks.

 
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Posted: #6
Yeah, I didn't see that either. I assumed that you have to login to get that.
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by Trigg:

Just looking on statfox but where do you guys see their 'picks' or 'edge on'? 

Thanks.


Okay, nevermind, lol. Didn't realize you could click on those links in the above posting. Good stuff! GL everyone.

 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by irage:

Yeah, I didn't see that either. I assumed that you have to login to get that.

Just posted about clicking on that guy's links. It works! Very good site though, been there before but I forgot all about it.

 
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Posted: #9
I thought I was we savvy. I didn't know that either.
 
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Posted: #10
I'm not sure if I should be worried or not. The fact that this site has the exact same picks, bothers me a little.

I have to admit this site has a ton of useful information.
 
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Posted: #11
RPI SYSTEM

RPI Home: 40
RPI Visitor: 40

Started with H32 V39. First filters get adjusted to 40.

7 - 5 - 0

Sept 01 - WISCONSIN -35.5 (H39) LOSS
Sept 02 - TCU -4.5 (V24) LOSS
Sept 03 - WESTERN MICHIGAN +13.5 (V39) LOSS
Sept 03 - AUBURN -24 (H39) LOSS
Sept 03 - WISCONSIN -34.5 (H37) LOSS

Sept 03 - OHIO STATE -34 (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - STANFORD -30  (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - ALABAMA -39  (H38) WIN
Sept 03 - OHIO ST -34 (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - FLORIDA ST 30.5 (H35) WIN
Sept 03 - VIRGINIA TECH -26 (H??) WIN
Sept 03 - MISSISSIPPI ST -30 (V40) WIN

Sept 03 - OKLAHOMA ST -38 (H42)
Sept 03 - ARKANSAS -41 (H??)
 
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Posted: #12
RPI SYSTEM

RPI Home: 38
RPI Visitor: 40

Filter: Sept 01 = H32 V39
Filter: Sept 03 = H38 V40


8 - 3 - 0

Sept 01 - WISCONSIN -35.5 (H39) LOSS
Sept 03 - WESTERN MICHIGAN +13.5 (V39) LOSS
Sept 03 - AUBURN -24 (H39) LOSS

Sept 03 - OHIO STATE -34 (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - STANFORD -30  (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - ALABAMA -39  (H38) WIN
Sept 03 - OHIO ST -34 (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - VIRGINIA TECH -26 (H53) WIN
Sept 03 - MISSISSIPPI ST -30 (V40) WIN
Sept 03 - ARKANSAS -41 (H54) WIN

Sept 03 - OKLAHOMA ST -38 (H42)
 
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Posted: #13
RPI SYSTEM

RPI Home: 38
RPI Visitor: 40

Filter: Sept 01 = H32 V39
Filter: Sept 03 = H38 V40
Filter: Sept 03 = No lines greater than -35


5 - 1 - 0

Sept 03 - AUBURN -24 (H39) LOSS

Sept 03 - OHIO STATE -34 (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - STANFORD -30  (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - OHIO ST -34 (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - VIRGINIA TECH -26 (H53) WIN
Sept 03 - MISSISSIPPI ST -30 (V40) WIN
 
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Posted: #14
RPI SYSTEM

RPI Home: 38
RPI Visitor: 40

Filter: Sept 01 = H32 V39
Filter: Sept 03 = H38 V40
Filter: Sept 03 = No lines greater than -35


4 - 1 - 0

Sept 03 - AUBURN -24 (H39) LOSS

Sept 03 - STANFORD -30  (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - OHIO ST -34 (H49) WIN
Sept 03 - VIRGINIA TECH -26 (H53) WIN
Sept 03 - MISSISSIPPI ST -30 (V40) WIN
 
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Posted: #15

Where do you find the RPI for college football ?

 
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Posted: #16
https://www.statfox.com/cfb/power/

Pretty cool, RealityCheck pointed it out to me. I figured I would try to apply similar filters that B2W did in MLB. Week one seemed to work OK, lets see where week to gets us.
 
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Posted: #17

Man, IRAGE   if we can get results like we did in MLB it will be a GREAT year.

My book is in jail, and so is my 3600....   on to a new book!!!

 
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Posted: #18
WEEK 2 Looks

Stanford = V39
Florida = H??
Arkansas = V41 (-35.5)
Buffalo =
 
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Would it be too late for me to jump into NCAAF irage? I was actually looking for Football threads but can't seem to find one.
 
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I added you as a friend btw.
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by irage:

WEEK 2 Looks

Stanford = V39
Florida = H??
Arkansas = V41 (-35.5)
Buffalo =


Is this 4-0?
 
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Posted: #22
Feel free, kinda working out system right now. I want to narrow my game selection to just 1 or 2 games per week. Looking for the best chance of getting a win.

Stanford looks good, but Arkansas as a 35pt favorite is right on the edge. Arkansas could easily score 35, but they will take mercy on NM. NM is awful and they are going to get pounded. I think the bigger question is......will they score at all? The under looks more promising.

The other game I really like is N. Illinois. Great speed should give them the edge in this game.

I am also looking at USC vs Utah. First big PAC 12 game for the Utes and they are going to get an eye opener. With some of the best recruitment in the west USC will make a statement and welcome the Utes with a bust to the chops.
 
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Posted: #23
So the games are for Friday? I don't have any clue for NCAAF.
 
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Posted: #24
Thursday I like Oklahoma St UNDER 66
Friday I like Missouri -7.5
Saturday I like Stanford, USC, N. Illinois, Arkansas I am still deciding on.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Pass on Thursday game. I want to play something to much. Wait till Friday Missouri looking good. Don't play this game if the line drops below 7.

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