"I have no doubt it was more of a "last weekend" everyone getting ready for championship game kinda week HUGE UPSETS and definitely a Bookie weekend".
I did some research yesterday on the Thanksgiving week over the past 4 years.
I wanted to see if Friday (including the few games before Friday) was different from Saturday in % of wins with the dog covering ATS, and if the entire week was different from the other weeks.
FRIDAY SATURDAY TOTAL
YEAR…..DOGS W/L…%…………DOGS W/L…%…..…W/L…...%
2012……9/16…………57…………….14/40……35…….23/56…41
2011……9/16…………57……...……..17/38……37…....26/54…49
2010……6/16…………38……………..18/38..…48…….24/54….45
2009…..10/15…………67……………..20/34…..59……30/49….62
2013……9/19…………48……………..23/40…..58…….32/59….55
Except for 2010, the other 3 years, and this year, have the dogs covering ATS above the league average of 48% on Friday, or Sat., or both.
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Thanks for all the good thoughts.
"I have no doubt it was more of a "last weekend" everyone getting ready for championship game kinda week HUGE UPSETS and definitely a Bookie weekend".
I did some research yesterday on the Thanksgiving week over the past 4 years.
I wanted to see if Friday (including the few games before Friday) was different from Saturday in % of wins with the dog covering ATS, and if the entire week was different from the other weeks.
FRIDAY SATURDAY TOTAL
YEAR…..DOGS W/L…%…………DOGS W/L…%…..…W/L…...%
2012……9/16…………57…………….14/40……35…….23/56…41
2011……9/16…………57……...……..17/38……37…....26/54…49
2010……6/16…………38……………..18/38..…48…….24/54….45
2009…..10/15…………67……………..20/34…..59……30/49….62
2013……9/19…………48……………..23/40…..58…….32/59….55
Except for 2010, the other 3 years, and this year, have the dogs covering ATS above the league average of 48% on Friday, or Sat., or both.
On Sunday I spent time reviewing the college games that went 5-8, first, looking for clerical mistakes, none, then looking for new criterias for selecting plays with my system. After a few hours I started playing with some of the systems raw data and found another criteria that looked interesting. So I tried it with the NFL for that day and those picks went 7-1-1, as opposed to my original picks that went 3-3. With this new system, 3 of the 7 wins were the same, and 2 new wins came from picking the opposing teams I lost (Ind and Atl). 1 loss, NE, stayed the same, and 1 other win was NYG.
This isn't much to go on, but I want to track it this week for both college and NFL. I also capped these games with the system I've been using.
College regular system
USF +5.5 ~ pk
OkSt -10 ~ -10
AzSt -3 ~ -6
College new system
(all of these plays have good value so another point higher should not matter)
NIL -3
Mem pk
ULL +3
Mizz +2
Duke +29.5
These plays also have some value, not as much as the plays above, but I'm not sure where the minimum value should be set.
Lou -3.5
Tex +13.5
Marsh -4.5
Stan +3
MiSt +5
UtSt +3
NFL regular system
Hou -3 ~ -3
KC -3 ~ -3
Cin -6 ~ -7
TB -2.5 ~ -5
NFL new system
(all of these plays have high value so a few points more should not matter)
Jax +3
KC -3
Oak +2.5
Ind +6
Car +3
Miami +3
Sea +2.5
Dal +1
These plays also have some value, not as much as the plays above, but I'm not sure where the minimum value should be set.
Min +6.5
Det +2.5
StL +6
NYG +3
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OK, so here is what I've been doing.
On Sunday I spent time reviewing the college games that went 5-8, first, looking for clerical mistakes, none, then looking for new criterias for selecting plays with my system. After a few hours I started playing with some of the systems raw data and found another criteria that looked interesting. So I tried it with the NFL for that day and those picks went 7-1-1, as opposed to my original picks that went 3-3. With this new system, 3 of the 7 wins were the same, and 2 new wins came from picking the opposing teams I lost (Ind and Atl). 1 loss, NE, stayed the same, and 1 other win was NYG.
This isn't much to go on, but I want to track it this week for both college and NFL. I also capped these games with the system I've been using.
College regular system
USF +5.5 ~ pk
OkSt -10 ~ -10
AzSt -3 ~ -6
College new system
(all of these plays have good value so another point higher should not matter)
NIL -3
Mem pk
ULL +3
Mizz +2
Duke +29.5
These plays also have some value, not as much as the plays above, but I'm not sure where the minimum value should be set.
Lou -3.5
Tex +13.5
Marsh -4.5
Stan +3
MiSt +5
UtSt +3
NFL regular system
Hou -3 ~ -3
KC -3 ~ -3
Cin -6 ~ -7
TB -2.5 ~ -5
NFL new system
(all of these plays have high value so a few points more should not matter)
Jax +3
KC -3
Oak +2.5
Ind +6
Car +3
Miami +3
Sea +2.5
Dal +1
These plays also have some value, not as much as the plays above, but I'm not sure where the minimum value should be set.
Sorry if some of these picks are contradicting, or confusing. I could have kept this new system to myself and waited until it could be proved to be a viable system, but it was too darn interesting. Anyway, I will bet small on every play from both systems; where both teams are picked from the same game, I'll default to the new system: Jax and Ind. College has no conflicting plays.
GL
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Sorry if some of these picks are contradicting, or confusing. I could have kept this new system to myself and waited until it could be proved to be a viable system, but it was too darn interesting. Anyway, I will bet small on every play from both systems; where both teams are picked from the same game, I'll default to the new system: Jax and Ind. College has no conflicting plays.
I will probably eliminate USF from my picks. Just too weak of a team with new issues for me to bet on. They are 4-0 ATS away, but going to 30 degree weather from Tampa might be too much to stay within 6 points.
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I will probably eliminate USF from my picks. Just too weak of a team with new issues for me to bet on. They are 4-0 ATS away, but going to 30 degree weather from Tampa might be too much to stay within 6 points.
Have you back checked the new tweak in the system??
I like the Carolina play....it seems this year when a team has a bad game everyone jumps on them the following week thinking they will have a rebound game and yet that team loses again. Public will be all over NO at home following that horrid game in Seattle.
Same thing happened with KC after its loss to Denver came home to play SD and gave up a 30 point lead and Detroit against Pitt came back to host TB at home and stunk up the joint.
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Always,,, thanks for sharing Grateful
Have you back checked the new tweak in the system??
I like the Carolina play....it seems this year when a team has a bad game everyone jumps on them the following week thinking they will have a rebound game and yet that team loses again. Public will be all over NO at home following that horrid game in Seattle.
Same thing happened with KC after its loss to Denver came home to play SD and gave up a 30 point lead and Detroit against Pitt came back to host TB at home and stunk up the joint.
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