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2012 NCAAF CAPPER EXTRAORDINAIRE

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Posted: #51
i dont remember you having this many games in one day IRAGE...??
 
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Posted: #52
Last year I based my picks solely on RPI. This year I am factoring in several other things. This gives me a better selection of picks. Mis-matches that we can exploit are the best chance for a winning season. Sorry for the rough start, I will dial in and the list will get smaller.

RPI
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1 - 3 - 0

WEEK ONE
South Carolina -6.5 - LOSS
Washington St. +11.5 - LOSS
Stanford -25.5 - LOSS
Iowa St. +1.5 PENDING
Ohio St -23.5 - WIN
Boston College +2.5 - PENDING
Michigan +12 - PENDING
LSU -43 (H41) PENDING
Houston -36.5 (H45) PENDING

UNOFFICIAL
North Carolina -15 - WIN
Auburn +3.5 - PENDING
Colorado St. +3.5 - PENDING
Northern Illinois +6 - PENDING
Ohio +6 - WIN
 
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Posted: #53
Opps, left out Tulane.

RPI
Visitor: 40 -- Home: 38

1 - 3 - 0

WEEK ONE
South Carolina -6.5 - LOSS
Washington St. +11.5 - LOSS
Stanford -25.5 - LOSS
Iowa St. +1.5 PENDING
Ohio St -23.5 - WIN
Boston College +2.5 - PENDING
Tulane +19 - PENDING
Michigan +12 - PENDING
LSU -43 (H41) PENDING
Houston -36.5 (H45) PENDING

UNOFFICIAL
North Carolina -15 - WIN
Auburn +3.5 - PENDING
Colorado St. +3.5 - PENDING
Northern Illinois +6 - PENDING
Ohio +6 - WIN
 
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Posted: #54
RPI
Visitor: 40 -- Home: 38

2 - 4 - 0

WEEK ONE
South Carolina -6.5 - LOSS
Washington St. +11.5 - LOSS
Stanford -25.5 - LOSS
Iowa St. +1.5 WIN
Ohio St -23.5 - WIN
Boston College +2.5 - LOSS
Tulane +19 - PENDING
Michigan +12 - PENDING
LSU -43 (H41) PENDING
Houston -36.5 (H45) PENDING

UNOFFICIAL
North Carolina -15 - WIN
Auburn +3.5 - PENDING
Colorado St. +3.5 - WIN
Northern Illinois +6 - WIN
Ohio +6 - WIN
 
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Posted: #55
Unofficial plays are Kicking ass. Too bad I only play the officials.
 
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Posted: #56

South Carolina -6.5 - LOSS
Washington St. +11.5 - LOSS
Stanford -25.5 - LOSS
Iowa St. +1.5 WIN
Ohio St -23.5 - WIN
Boston College +2.5 - LOSS
Tulane +19 - WIN                                                                 Michigan +12 - LOSS                                                        LSU -43 (H41) LOSS                                                        Houston -36.5 (H45) LOSS

I ended up just watching...glad I stayed away.   gotta make up 14 units in 2 days.    What is the plan IRAGE?

 
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Posted: #57
The question to ponder upon is this. How come strong teams get a GREAT start and end up NOT covering Vegas is behind all this. SoCar had a great start and after the half, played like kids. LSU had a 24-0 advantage and suddenly their defense failed after THE HALF again. Houston was a ML fave all day long but ended up losing the game. Those games were consensus plays. Over 60% of the wager were on the faves and yet they all end up losing. Vegas IS proving their point. Even if with all those losses, Vegas KNOWS bettors won't stop betting. Just my opinion though. And yes, I BELIEVE all games are rigged.
 
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Posted: #58
I just have to get better at trimming the games. You can beat them just look at the unofficial games 4 - 1.

Those high profile games seem to be my nemesis.

No football games to play today, but Boston v Oakland O7.5 in MLB.
 
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Posted: #59
RPI
Visitor: 40 -- Home: 38

3 - 7 - 0

WEEK ONE
South Carolina -6.5 - LOSS
Washington St. +11.5 - LOSS
Stanford -25.5 - LOSS
Iowa St. +1.5 WIN
Ohio St -23.5 - WIN
Boston College +2.5 - LOSS
Tulane +19 - WIN
Michigan +12 - LOSS
LSU -43 (H41) LOSS
Houston -36.5 (H45) LOSS

UNOFFICIAL
North Carolina -15 - WIN
Auburn +3.5 - LOSS
Colorado St. +3.5 - WIN
Northern Illinois +6 - WIN
Ohio +6 - WIN
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by glefkb01:

i dont remember you having this many games in one day IRAGE...??


Dude, hopefully you took advantage of the Boston O7.5 to get a little bit of the losses back.

That was a rough first week, it will get better.
 
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Posted: #61
So I made two changes to the program, one removing the RPI from the formula and the other a variable increase to -10 was -6.

These are the games the computer predicted based on the changes. Hell of a difference. Wish I would have made those changes before posting the games. This is a lot of games and I would have eliminated more than 2/3 of these games. I promise you one thing...... next will be different!

28 - 11 - 0

Akron +24.5 LOSS
Eastern Michigan +6 LOSS
BYU -13.5 WIN
Kent State -7 WIN
UNLV +8 WIN
Vanderbuilt +6 WIN
NC State -7 LOSS
Temple -18 WIN
Idaho St +32 WIN
Michigan +13 LOSS
Toledo +10 WIN
Arkansas -24 WIN
Arkansas St. +35.5 WIN
Auburn +3.5 LOSS
Boston College +2.5 LOSS
Bowling Green +13 WIN
Buffalo +38 WIN
Colorado St +3.5 WIN
Florida Intl +4 LOSS
E. Carolina -13 WIN
Fresno St -10 WIN
Hawaii +62 WIN
Texas St +34 WIN
N. Illinois +7.5 LOSS
Kansas St -34 WIN
North Texas +44 WIN
Miami Ohio +25.5 LOSS
Central Arkansas +27 WIN
Mississippi St -9 WIN
Missouri -10 WIN
Notre Dame -14 WIN
Southern +21 LOSS
Ohio +6 WIN
Pittsburgh -18.5 LOSS
Purdue -20 WIN
San Diego St +14 WIN
Wyoming +31 WIN
Virginia -19 WIN
W. Kentucky -10 WIN
 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by irage:

So I made two changes to the program, one removing the RPI from the formula and the other a variable increase to -10 was -6.

These are the games the computer predicted based on the changes. Hell of a difference. Wish I would have made those changes before posting the games. This is a lot of games and I would have eliminated more than 2/3 of these games. I promise you one thing...... next will be different!

28 - 11 - 0

Akron +24.5 LOSS
Eastern Michigan +6 LOSS
BYU -13.5 WIN
Kent State -7 WIN
UNLV +8 WIN
Vanderbuilt +6 WIN
NC State -7 LOSS
Temple -18 WIN
Idaho St +32 WIN
Michigan +13 LOSS
Toledo +10 WIN
Arkansas -24 WIN
Arkansas St. +35.5 WIN
Auburn +3.5 LOSS
Boston College +2.5 LOSS
Bowling Green +13 WIN
Buffalo +38 WIN
Colorado St +3.5 WIN
Florida Intl +4 LOSS
E. Carolina -13 WIN
Fresno St -10 WIN
Hawaii +62 WIN
Texas St +34 WIN
N. Illinois +7.5 LOSS *
Kansas St -34 WIN
North Texas +44 WIN
Miami Ohio +25.5 LOSS
Central Arkansas +27 WIN
Mississippi St -9 WIN
Missouri -10 WIN
Notre Dame -14 WIN
Southern +21 LOSS
Ohio +6 WIN
Pittsburgh -18.5 LOSS
Purdue -20 WIN
San Diego St +14 WIN
Wyoming +31 WIN
Virginia -19 WIN
W. Kentucky -10 WIN


* Didn't they cover the spread?

Other than that, looks promising
 
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Posted: #63
Wow! We would have played almost all games. Too much to risk. Which games would you have played and eliminated most probably?
 
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Posted: #64
Oh hell yes, I typed their score wrong. N. Illinois was a cover.

So I would have narrowed down to this list after I added my filters and games that I was missing information on. Holy shit, if I was reading this page I would think this guys is full of shit, but I swear I did not play with the teams at all, I simply adjusted the filters and believe me when I say it's easy to manipulate numbers to make them look the way you want, but here is no reason for me to do that. I lost my ass this weekend and all I wanted to do is figure out where things went wrong. No one is more critical of my picks than me. So lets see if the picks hold up next weekend. I expect to have picks up by Thursday night.

22 - 3

BYU -13.5 WIN
Kent State -7 WIN
Temple -18 WIN
Idaho St +32 WIN
Michigan +13 LOSS
Toledo +10 WIN
Arkansas -24 WIN
Arkansas St. +35.5 WIN
Boston College +2.5 LOSS
Bowling Green +13 WIN
Buffalo +38 WIN
E. Carolina -13 WIN
Fresno St -10 WIN
Hawaii +62 WIN
Texas St +34 WIN
N. Illinois +7.5 WIN
Kansas St -34 WIN
North Texas +44 WIN
Mississippi St -9 WIN
Missouri -10 WIN
Notre Dame -14 WIN
Pittsburgh -18.5 LOSS
Purdue -20 WIN
Virginia -19 WIN
W. Kentucky -10 WIN
 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by irage:

Oh hell yes, I typed their score wrong. N. Illinois was a cover.

So I would have narrowed down to this list after I added my filters and games that I was missing information on. Holy shit, if I was reading this page I would think this guys is full of shit, but I swear I did not play with the teams at all, I simply adjusted the filters and believe me when I say it's easy to manipulate numbers to make them look the way you want, but here is no reason for me to do that. I lost my ass this weekend and all I wanted to do is figure out where things went wrong. No one is more critical of my picks than me. So lets see if the picks hold up next weekend. I expect to have picks up by Thursday night.

22 - 3

BYU -13.5 WIN
Kent State -7 WIN
Temple -18 WIN
Idaho St +32 WIN
Michigan +13 LOSS
Toledo +10 WIN
Arkansas -24 WIN
Arkansas St. +35.5 WIN
Boston College +2.5 LOSS
Bowling Green +13 WIN
Buffalo +38 WIN
E. Carolina -13 WIN
Fresno St -10 WIN
Hawaii +62 WIN
Texas St +34 WIN
N. Illinois +7.5 WIN
Kansas St -34 WIN
North Texas +44 WIN
Mississippi St -9 WIN
Missouri -10 WIN
Notre Dame -14 WIN
Pittsburgh -18.5 LOSS
Purdue -20 WIN
Virginia -19 WIN
W. Kentucky -10 WIN


Mate, I can understand what you mean that anyone can put any old shit up but I think I speak for most of us here that you're genuine. I, for one, appreciate you sharing your stuff in this forum and you're one of the top contributors with some good shit Very much look forward to your plays this week. Let's ca$h!
 
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Posted: #66
I agree with Trigg, irage. Look at your MLB thread. They are still posting plays even if you're done with it.
 
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Posted: #67
MLB & Football are completely different monsters imo Bookie. What's your take on the GTECH/VTECH game today Irage?
 
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Posted: #68
Good luck this year!
 
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Posted: #69

Thanks IRAGE...I got 5 back but need 4 more to not have to pay up ...   I took COL/SD over easy cover, Texas and then I teased Louisville/LouisvilleUnder/Baylor Over.  

I am leaning GaTech tonight...  and have 1 on MilwaukeeBrewers today at Miami...   If that wins I will put 3 on GaTech...maybe tease the total too.

 
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Posted: #70
Irate, I was wondering were you got Hawaii at +62?  My book only had them +45.  They still covered, regardless, but just curious.
 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by Gator11:

Good luck this year!


I drove out to the casino today and dropped a "G" on the Giants. That was a tight game.

I thought the Brewers were a good pick today, but they came up lame.
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by glefkb01:

Thanks IRAGE...I got 5 back but need 4 more to not have to pay up ...   I took COL/SD over easy cover, Texas and then I teased Louisville/LouisvilleUnder/Baylor Over.  

I am leaning GaTech tonight...  and have 1 on MilwaukeeBrewers today at Miami...   If that wins I will put 3 on GaTech...maybe tease the total too.



I screwed up it was 45.5 the over under was 62. I don't take games that have high lines like that. Something always happens in those games. My auto scrape still needs some tweaking,s o thanks for double checking the numbers.
 
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by BookieCrusher88:

I agree with Trigg, irage. Look at your MLB thread. They are still posting plays even if you're done with it.


Sorry man, I just got back. This is no play for me. I am trying to be disciplined and not play games that don't meet the criteria.
 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by glefkb01:

Thanks IRAGE...I got 5 back but need 4 more to not have to pay up ...   I took COL/SD over easy cover, Texas and then I teased Louisville/LouisvilleUnder/Baylor Over.  

I am leaning GaTech tonight...  and have 1 on MilwaukeeBrewers today at Miami...   If that wins I will put 3 on GaTech...maybe tease the total too.



I got home late I was hoping to get a bet in on the Milwuakee tonight.
 
 
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Posted: #75
Screw the RPI, I was never convinced it worked for football. I adjusted the filters and have a few games already. Western Kentucky is locked in and I betting on them to cover. Tread lightly this week, lets see if the filters can hold up for at least one week. There are still a bunch of games that have no lines yet, so stay tuned. Watch that Oklahoma line, I expect them to favored by at least 43, if they open under 30 take Oklahoma before the line adjusts. Lets get back on track.

WEEK TWO
3 - 7 - 0

THURSDAY
Cincinnati +4.5

SATURDAY
Western Kentucky +40
Michigan -20
Bowling Green -7.5
Kansas St. -6.5
Washington +22
Nebraska -4
Central Florida +14.5
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