Yes, I'm back in the bowls with a winning season. I didn't want to post anything that was untested, or that I wouldn't bet on.I made some changes to my system, relying heavily on defense points of the past 5 games, for the key value, added to Sagarin team ratings, and schedule value.
Here it is, very simple to DIY.
Example:
Defensive points of last 5 games (vs AA teams only)
BSU: 24 points
NIU: 28 points
NET: BSU....................+4 points
Sag rating
BSU:76 points
NIU:66 points
NET: BSU....................+10 points
Sag schedule
BSU:62 points
NIU:62 points
NET: BSU....................+0 points
Net Difference: BSU....+14 points
Listed are only the teams with a Gross value >10
Their Net value: Gross value - line = net value
team...gross...line...net........W/L/P
AZ...13...-9...4...............L
BSU...14...-6.5...7.5.........W
SDSU...17...-2...15..........W
WSU...30...-8.5...21.5......W
VT...33...-14...19............L
MINN...10...-5...5.............W
CAL...22...-7...15.............W
LSU...33...-7...26.............W
AUB...18...-2.5...15.5......W
MSST...19...-5...14..........W
FSU...23...-7...16...........L....QB out
ALA...19...-10...9.............W
MISS...18...-7.5...10.5.....W
UGA...15...-6...9..............W
ARK...17...-13...4............W
TCU...14...+7...21...........W..QB, RB out
WVU...18...-1...17.........P
GROSS VALUE only picks >10 points: 13-3-1
Filters:
A) QB or RB not starting: 12-2-1
B) Gross value with Net Value >7 points: 12-2-1
GROSS VALUE with filters A & B: 10-1-1
Filters are somewhat arbitrary, but should prove to be valuable contributors to eliminate "losers", and provide a higher winning %.
You can adjust the parameters as you like. This is a very small sample, so be cautious.
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