i'm just posting this for a trial run. i have tons of friends who bet and tell me what they're on. going against them has been fairly good to me for flat bets. i think fade chasing them after they win two in a row is going to work out much better! i will chase up to five of their games with -110 odds on average (range from -140 to +140). i'll have a up to three plays each day up to thanksgiving. the chases can cross sports and i will add buying the hook to eliminate pushing. bets are to win 0.75% roughly. one series loss would be about a 33% wipeout! ABCDE. each series is a commitment of 33% of BR. so for now, no more than three plays a day. i'm looking to gain 15-25% by thanksgiving. I don't expect any series losses, but lowering the series win amount percentage from 2.5% to about 0.75% will keep the BR safe from a total wipeout.
10/8/2009 $10,000 BR
(A) Red Sox/Angels UNDER 8.5 -122 risking 96.38 to win 79.00 (0.79%)
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
i'm just posting this for a trial run. i have tons of friends who bet and tell me what they're on. going against them has been fairly good to me for flat bets. i think fade chasing them after they win two in a row is going to work out much better! i will chase up to five of their games with -110 odds on average (range from -140 to +140). i'll have a up to three plays each day up to thanksgiving. the chases can cross sports and i will add buying the hook to eliminate pushing. bets are to win 0.75% roughly. one series loss would be about a 33% wipeout! ABCDE. each series is a commitment of 33% of BR. so for now, no more than three plays a day. i'm looking to gain 15-25% by thanksgiving. I don't expect any series losses, but lowering the series win amount percentage from 2.5% to about 0.75% will keep the BR safe from a total wipeout.
10/8/2009 $10,000 BR
(A) Red Sox/Angels UNDER 8.5 -122 risking 96.38 to win 79.00 (0.79%)
all three players were on the colts the night before, then only one was on the jets. if they all were on the jets then the C's would've been dolphins. the other two players didn't have anything yesterday or today. i'm chasing the plays against each player, so it could be the phillies one night, red wings another, bulls another etc. i know it's a little crazy lol, but it is fun and most likely profitable. one problem that might come up is when two of the plays are against each other... not sure what to do about that. these guys usually pick popular & sweet looking plays, so plays coming up against each other should be rare. if it does happen, i'm thinking scalping for a middle would be better by laying a little extra juice on both sides as long as it is not an E bet lol. we'll see what happens over the next month. i'm working on a 3 game chase system at -110 odds which would make some mighty big gains each play compared to the 5 game chase, but it wouldn't produce as many plays. i'll post it in another month if it is working out well.
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Quote Originally Posted by smitler:
Why didn't you use the Fins for your "C" bets?
all three players were on the colts the night before, then only one was on the jets. if they all were on the jets then the C's would've been dolphins. the other two players didn't have anything yesterday or today. i'm chasing the plays against each player, so it could be the phillies one night, red wings another, bulls another etc. i know it's a little crazy lol, but it is fun and most likely profitable. one problem that might come up is when two of the plays are against each other... not sure what to do about that. these guys usually pick popular & sweet looking plays, so plays coming up against each other should be rare. if it does happen, i'm thinking scalping for a middle would be better by laying a little extra juice on both sides as long as it is not an E bet lol. we'll see what happens over the next month. i'm working on a 3 game chase system at -110 odds which would make some mighty big gains each play compared to the 5 game chase, but it wouldn't produce as many plays. i'll post it in another month if it is working out well.
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