80% hit rate?

I have a friend that says he uses this system and hits 80%
All he does is watch the line move and buy in that direction.

Example: this last Sun.o/u on the kc/den game line moved from 43 to 44.5 he took The Over and hit
.Mon phi/was O/U 44 to 44.5 took over and its over already.

If the line moves againsta team, Boise-33 to -34.5 take boise.
any thoughts here? I'm curios.

Im thinking if that were true. beters would have already caught and Vegas would be broke

Definitely not true. You can back test it yourself like in www.scoresandodds.com
Indeed, line movement has some good trends to follow (which I usually do) it doesn't hit in that high percentage.

Just my two cents

I didn't think so. Thanks for your input

Following the line movements has been working the last week or so; but go back & check the beginning of November. You woulda got killed.

It all evens out to about 50% like everything else. Vegas knows what they're doing.

If it was that easy everyone would do it.

no vegas usually wins and your buddy said he bets with the movement.  I watch for a 3 point move and if not because of an injury.  I bet against the move.  say a team favored by 14.  It moves to 11.  Everyone is betting the dog.  to drive line down to 11.  I bet the favorite and it usually covers. 

Thanks for the input. I  was considering following him but i wanted to track it for a while. But its a lot of work. Are there any good systems out there? Or does Vegas have all the bases covered?

You need to predict line movement to make it profitable, not watch it. If a team is -4.5 and you watch it move to -6.5, you're losing out on two free points. You need to scoop it up at -4.5 knowing that it will move in your favour to -6.5 (at which point you would likely middle for a guaranteed profit). A lot easier said than done.

Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:

You need to predict line movement to make it profitable, not watch it. If a team is -4.5 and you watch it move to -6.5, you're losing out on two free points. You need to scoop it up at -4.5 knowing that it will move in your favour to -6.5 (at which point you would likely middle for a guaranteed profit). A lot easier said than done.

Hmmm....  unless you get it at even money, the juice could eat you up.

You only middle when there is a guaranteed profit... So you wouldn't do so if there wasn't enough difference between your two price-points. Furthermore, 'double-wins' can result which often more than make up for previous juiced out plays.