80% hit rate?

Question

I have a friend that says he uses this system and hits 80%
All he does is watch the line move and buy in that direction.

Example: this last Sun.o/u on the kc/den game line moved from 43 to 44.5 he took The Over and hit
.Mon phi/was O/U 44 to 44.5 took over and its over already.

If the line moves againsta team, Boise-33 to -34.5 take boise.
any thoughts here? I'm curios.

Im thinking if that were true. beters would have already caught and Vegas would be broke

ntoodeep · Answer

I have a friend that says he uses this system and hits 80%
All he does is watch the line move and buy in that direction.

Example: this last Sun.o/u on the kc/den game line moved from 43 to 44.5 he took The Over and hit
.Mon phi/was O/U 44 to 44.5 took over and its over already.

If the line moves againsta team, Boise-33 to -34.5 take boise.
any thoughts here? I'm curios.

Im thinking if that were true. beters would have already caught and Vegas would be broke

gentruchi · Answer

Definitely not true. You can back test it yourself like in www.scoresandodds.com
Indeed, line movement has some good trends to follow (which I usually do) it doesn't hit in that high percentage.

Just my two cents

ntoodeep · Answer

I didn&#x27;t think so. Thanks for your input

MikeyFingers · Answer

Following the line movements has been working the last week or so; but go back & check the beginning of November. You woulda got killed.

It all evens out to about 50% like everything else. Vegas knows what they're doing.

If it was that easy everyone would do it.

lucky leo · Answer

no vegas usually wins and your buddy said he bets with the movement.  I watch for a 3 point move and if not because of an injury.  I bet against the move.  say a team favored by 14.  It moves to 11.  Everyone is betting the dog.  to drive line down to 11.  I bet the favorite and it usually covers.

ntoodeep · Answer

Thanks for the input. I  was considering following him but i wanted to track it for a while. But its a lot of work. Are there any good systems out there? Or does Vegas have all the bases covered?

dj_destroyer · Answer

You need to predict line movement to make it profitable, not watch it. If a team is -4.5 and you watch it move to -6.5, you&#x27;re losing out on two free points. You need to scoop it up at -4.5 knowing that it will move in your favour to -6.5 (at which point you would likely middle for a guaranteed profit). A lot easier said than done.

CallMeBruce · Answer

Hmmm....  unless you get it at even money, the juice could eat you up.

dj_destroyer · Answer

You only middle when there is a guaranteed profit... So you wouldn&#x27;t do so if there wasn&#x27;t enough difference between your two price-points. Furthermore, &#x27;double-wins&#x27; can result which often more than make up for previous juiced out plays.

80% hit rate?

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