Anti-JM MLB 2010

Nice work Smitler. 

Question though. How/when do you commit to which system?

Do you sometimes choose one system over the other based on your gut or matchups or momentum?

It's gotta be one or the other starting at game one, no? Unless you are taking the fav on the ML and the dog +1.5 when that applies to the same game.

Great work smitler.

The Unofficial plays should have more success under this system because of the [RPI] index.

AJM is kicking ass.

It also seems like it would be better to do, b/c the odds on AJM look consistently lower than JM. Does that even out over the season?

I guess I am still having a hard time with the idea of starting both JM and AJM at the same time. Seems like you are always shooting youreslf in the foot at the start of a series, assuming it would be rare that you would win both A games.

Is there a way to figure out which one you could start with, and then switch to the other, assuming you won the A game?

You know what I'm sayin'?

I get you smitty. Thanks for the reply.

It just sucks, because yeah you are gauranteed to win one, but you are also gauranteed to lose one.

So, if after the A games, it essentially becomes a 2 game chase, why not just skip the first game and wait to see who wins/loses and bet game 2 accordingly?

Or is the difference in juice in the A games usually in your favor once the two are reconciled?

Example:

May08_JM1_A_Cle_+1.5_-180_Betus_Lost_4-6_Unofficial
May08_AJM_A_Det__ml_-143_Betus_Won_6-4___2-0
May09_JM1_B_Cle__ml_-105_Betus_Won_7-4___2-0

JM A loss -180.

AJM A win +100. Nets -80.

JM B wins. +100. Net for the series= +20.

Now, if you skipped the A bets, you are not down 80 going into the B. You are at 0.

The JM B then wins you $100. So, you win 100 for the series instead of 20.

Another one:

May11_JM1_A_Bal_+1.5_-130_Betus_Lost_1-5
May11_AJM_A_Sea__ml_-155_Betus_Won_5-1___5-0
May12_JM1_B_Bal_+1.5_-210_Betus_Won_5-2___5-0

JM A lost. -130.

AJM A wins. +100. Net for A's -30

JM B wins. +100. Net for series is 70.

Now, skip both A's. You are now at 0 instead of -30.

JM B wins, you win 100 for the series instead of 70.

Now, I am just randomly copying and pasting from results you have posted in this thread. Obviously skipping the A's would make you lose out on the 1-run games where both hit.

But what I wonder is, how many double A wins would you miss out on versus how much prfoit you would save if you skipped the A's?

Do you my examples make sense?

I'm not sayin' my way is right. Just wondering out loud if skipping the A games and avoiding a loss would increase profit.

You are correct that you would miss out on double A wins, but what I'd like to figure out if possible if that is offset by not one of the A games frequently.

As to your first question as to if the other chase loses, any chase, no matter how many games runs that risk. If nothing else, you are now only losing a two game chase.

Just throwin' out some thoughts. I'll see if I can run some numbers.

OK. I did not have RL odds to plug in for April 26th Pitt vs Milw and May 14th SF vs. Hous but i did tabulate the other series:

Playing Both A games and proceeding with the system that needs to still win yielded a 175 loss to date.

Skipping both A games and proceeding with the system that still needed a win yielded a 560 loss to date.

So, the 2 series that both A games hit, really boosted/saved that version. It was the difference in the two numbers that I came up with.

Keep in mind that I took the numbers as though being straight bet. Plus it is a small sample size, and I'm missing two series' numbers.

But, it looks like getting that occasional double A win is really huge even though you are going to lose one of the two A's on a regular basis.

Bothe systems would have shown a profit had San Fran and then the Cubs not screwed everyone up.

If you play both systems simultaneousley you must play the A games using labouchere because no matter the outcome you clear at least one number from your labby lines and possibly four.

If you use martingale you have to bet double your normal A wager on your B and C wagers in order to win 1 unit per system\series.

Devil, I don't see why. You are only betting one system on the B bet if you skip both A's.

So you go with the system that lost the A bet to win 1 unit. Therefore that B wager is really your A wager of a 2-game series.

If you are playing both JM and AJM you are trying to win 2 units for every series.1 unit for JM and 1 unit for AJM.

If you skip both A wagers you have 0 units going into game 2.

When you bet the A games you are gauranteed 1 unit win and possibly 2 units if both systems win on the A bet.