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Anti-JM NBA Thread

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Captain
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Posted: #251
Why is the Nets chase stopped? 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #252
your 76ers play was an L but wasn't included in the optional chase record. Is there a reason for that?
 
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Posted: #253
Quote Originally Posted by Tahoe29:

your 76ers play was an L but wasn't included in the optional chase record. Is there a reason for that?


its a 3-Game Chase, a L is only counted if it loses 3 Games.
 
MVP
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Posted: #254

Quote Originally Posted by avenue:

Why is the Nets chase stopped? 

i don't know who makes the calls on the series but i faded the nets lastnight because they are the NETS....those are the type of teams you do not bet on with this system

i have stuck with 'the strategy' and have had two losers this season and am now fading with the home team when the road dawg is in the bottom 5-10 in overall standings

 
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Posted: #255
so you have to martingale with it is what your saying?
 
MVP
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Posted: #256

the system will fail every once in a while, but if you are not buying points that may make the system fail more often, if you are buying the points then the system will fail less but when it does fail it will wipe you out pretty good if you go all 3. 

i stick to the calendar but use my own discresion, i try not to buy points to lower the risk...but i sometimes buy them to get favorite to - 2 or 3 or a dawg up to 6 or 7.....i fade the teams that suck...most of time the sucky teams cover but the goal of this strategy is to not loss any of your series...

 
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Posted: #257
Quote Originally Posted by Tahoe29:

your 76ers play was an L but wasn't included in the optional chase record. Is there a reason for that?


I forgot to update it.
AJM: A 1/20 76ers   +2 -120 betus            L by 8 (score 98-90)
         B 1/22 Celtics

The Nets are just horrible and they are 33% ats on the road. I already lost the A and B bet and am gonna cut bait.
 
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Posted: #258
What does jm say about a push?
 
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Posted: #259
JM does not push and certainly not lose. Just ask him. He is a major douche bag tout who lies about his record.
OK seriously when its close JM always says he won and for the poor souls who pushed or lost to continue with chase.
 
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Posted: #260

 

EM to JM 1/22/10

Dear Genius
 
LAL was never "bettable" @ 3 1/2.  Will you ever "man up"????????  Show me your bet ticket @ 3 1/2 and I'll forever hold my tongue!!
 
John
 

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>
> John,
>
> Depending on the spread you had on the Lakers, you could have won
> or pushed on your wager. Although the series is now closed at the
> +3.5 spread, you do have the option of remaking the [A] bet on
> their game vs. New York today and continue the series if you wish.

Any ideas on his new V3 version????????

 
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Posted: #261

stay away from pushes for the most part...but i think with the lakers facing three easy opp i would continue to ride them.

I had the lakers at 3.5...what is the issue?  should have bought them to 6, whenever i play a dawg in this strategy i try and get them at 6 or higher.  regardless keep betting the lakers...

nets should have never been a play....why chase the nets?  that is a good spot for a fade........good teams you chase and really bad teams you fade

i've been perfect so far in the new year with one loser on the strategy with the pistons back in november i think.

 
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Posted: #262
Optional second chase 3 road games left
AJM: A 1/20 Blazers @ 76ers   +2 -120 betus
         B 1/22 Blazers @ Celtics -10 -120
       
JM1: A 1/18 Nets +10 to +11.5                    L by 11
        B 1/20 Nets +12.5/14.5 -150 BM          L by 24 chase stopped
        C 1/22 Nets +7.5 I consider JM A win if u bought 3. I am not playing it.

JM1: A 1/18 Bulls up to +3                            L by 17
        B 1/20 Bulls +3.5/5.5 -150 BM               L by 7 (score 104-97)
        C 1/22 Bulls +6/+9 -170 Betus
Optional THIRD chase 5 road games left
AJM: A3 1/22  Bulls @ Suns -6 -110 Betus
         (A3 means 3rd chase fading bulls on the road)

JM1: A 1/21 Lakers +3.5/+5.5 -150 BookMaker          L by 6
        B 1/22 Lakers -5.5/-3.5  -150 BookMaker
AJM: A 1/21 Cavs -3.5/-3       -120 BookMaker           W by 6  53-2
Optional 2nd chase Lakers have 7 road games left
JM1:  Not Applicable
AJM: A 1/22 Knicks +6 May not play since LA playing bad teams
       
JM1:  A 1/21 Clippers +10/+12 -150 BookMaker         L by 20
         B 1/24 Clippers +2 opening line
AJM: A 1/21 Nuggets -10        -110 BookMaker         W by 20  54-2
Optional 2nd chase Clippers have 7 road games left
JM1:  Not Applicable
AJM-A2-1/24-Wizards-2 opening line

Observations:  When the season started JM was wining many of the A games and AJM struggled. I stated that this couldn't last. 
Recently the opposite has happened and AJM is kicking ass.
Although it would be nice for this trend to continue, I expect it to come full circle.


 
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Posted: #263
My Eyes are bleeding from trying to go back ten years on morrisons 3 point system. Does anyone here have the a b c results from past years. I have a great money management system that I want to check against just a b bets but I need past numbers to strike an average win/loss. any help would be greatly apreciated.  thank you.
 
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Posted: #264
Quote Originally Posted by JJsLocks:

stay away from pushes for the most part...but i think with the lakers facing three easy opp i would continue to ride them.

I had the lakers at 3.5...what is the issue?  should have bought them to 6, whenever i play a dawg in this strategy i try and get them at 6 or higher.  regardless keep betting the lakers...

nets should have never been a play....why chase the nets?  that is a good spot for a fade........good teams you chase and really bad teams you fade

i've been perfect so far in the new year with one loser on the strategy with the pistons back in november i think.



You didn't get that line at Betus and they are the only book I know where you can buy 3.
What book do you use?
 
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Posted: #265
JM1: A 1/18 Nets +10 to +11.5                    L by 11
        B 1/20 Nets +12.5/14.5 -150 BM          L by 24 chase stopped
        C 1/22 Nets +7.5/+31                          L by 32
JM Won on A if you got it at 8.5 and bought 3 so record is  46-2

JM1: A 1/18 Bulls up to +3                            L by 17
        B 1/20 Bulls +3.5/5.5 -150 BM               L by 7 (score 104-97)
        C 1/22 Bulls +6/+9 -170 Betus               W by 11       47-2

JM1: A 1/21 Lakers +3.5/+5.5 -150 BookMaker    L by 6
        B 1/22 Lakers -5.5/-3.5  -150 BookMaker      W by 10 48-2
 
Captain
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Posted: #266
Smitler..what do we have tonight?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #267
Minnesota to loose @ milwaukee
 
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Posted: #268
JM1: A-1/23-Wolves  +7.5/10.5 -170-Betus
AJM: A-1/23-Bucks   -7 -120-Betus

Optional second chase 3 extra road games
AJM: A 1/20 Blazers @ 76ers   +2 -120 betus
         B 1/22 Blazers @ Celtics -10 -120
         C 1/23 Blazers @ Pistons -3 -110

Optional THIRD chase 4 road games left A3= 3rd chase fading Bulls
AJM: A3 1/22  Bulls @ Suns -6 -110 Betus
         B3 1/23 Bulls @ Rockets -6 -110
 
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Posted: #269
JM1: A-1/23-Wolves  +7.5/10.5 -170-Betus       L by 33
        B-1/26-Wolves at Knicks
AJM: A-1/23-Bucks   -7 -120-Betus                 W by 33    55-2

JM1: B/A-Clippers +2.5/5.5 -170 Betus (JM says its an A game)
AJM: A2- Wizards  -2 -110

Optional second chase 3 extra road games
AJM: A 1/20 Blazers @ 76ers   +2 -120 betus
         B 1/22 Blazers @ Celtics -10 -120
         C 1/23 Blazers @ Pistons -3 -110   Lost chase. 6-1

Optional THIRD chase 4 road games left A3= 3rd chase fading Bulls
AJM: A3 1/22  Bulls @ Suns -6 -110 Betus
         B3 1/23 Bulls @ Rockets -6 -110
         C3 1/25 Bulls @ Spurs
 
Prospect
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Posted: #270
Quote Originally Posted by smitler:

Real simple.  Play the opposite of JM (home team) ATS and don't buy any points.

YTD: 3-0 with Raptors series going to B
11/1
JM   A Hawks +11 Win
AJM A Lakers -6.5 Win
11/3
JM   A Nuggets -1.5 Win
AJM A Pacers +6 Loss, 11/4-B Nets +9 Loss, 11/6-C Heat pk Win
11/3
JM   A Suns +6 Win
AJM A Heat -3.5 Loss, 11/4-B Magic -8 Win
11/6
JM   A Raptors +7 Win
AJM A Hornets -4 Loss

I try to wait for line movement so that's why the lines don't match.
Did a little unofficial tracking last year and it seemed promising, but no data gathered.
This system did go 11-0 in WNBA this past year.

Next Play: Raptors at Mavs 11/7
Smilter are you still going oposite of jm plays and "NOT" buying any points? What is you record so far for the season. Thanks for all you hard work here.
 
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Posted: #271
Quote Originally Posted by smitler:

JM1: A-1/23-Wolves  +7.5/10.5 -170-Betus
AJM: A-1/23-Bucks   -7 -120-Betus

Optional second chase 3 extra road games
AJM: A 1/20 Blazers @ 76ers   +2 -120 betus
         B 1/22 Blazers @ Celtics -10 -120
         C 1/23 Blazers @ Pistons -3 -110

Optional THIRD chase 4 road games left A3= 3rd chase fading Bulls
AJM: A3 1/22  Bulls @ Suns -6 -110 Betus
         B3 1/23 Bulls @ Rockets -6 -110
Dude I see some posts that say they are buying points and I see some that say dont buy the points. You have a great system and Im gonna tail you..but smithler, do I buy points for these games or dont I buy any points. Thanks dude.  Also do you play jm pics and your picks or are you strictly fading and going oposite of JM's picks and only playing your picks, which are the oposite of JM's...thanks
 
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Posted: #272
  • I play both JM and AJM plays.
  • For JM plays I'm still experimenting with buying 2 points at -150 for JM picks if another book's line is 1/2 point or greater difference from what Betus has.  Betus is the only book I know where I can buy 3 or more points and their line is almost always swayed against JM's plays. The max points you can buy at most other books is 2.  As an example The Clippers were +2.5 at Betus and +3 at Bookmaker.  So the decision is buy 3 (5.5) at Betus at -170, or buy 2 (5) at -150 and risk losing by 1/2 point.
  • JM called the NJ chase a win at the Jan. 18 A game (+8.5+3=+11.5). However looking back at the line movement Betus had +8.5 from 9:43 am to 9:53 am. After that it went to +8 and lower.  All other books had them at +8.5 or +9 but you can only buy 2 points so that would have been a push or loss.  The only way you could have won that chase is if you had Betus and placed the bet between 9:43 am and 9:53 am.
  • Other than that small window in the NJ series, buying 2 points did not affect the outcome of any JM chase.
  • As for the AJM, I hate losing by a half point so many times i will buy a half.


 
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Posted: #273
AJM is to simply play the opposite of JMs Version 1 and Version 2 plays.  You do not have to buy any points for AJM plays if you don't want to.

As of 1/23, the records for both systems, game for game, is 48-2.

But really JM is 47-3 because many, many people lost the Pistons and Nets chase when JM called it a win.

The AJM record states 55-2 so that must include prior optional chases that I previously lumped together.  Someday I will go back and separate them.
 
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Posted: #274
Quote Originally Posted by smitler:

  • I play both JM and AJM plays.
  • For JM plays I'm still experimenting with buying 2 points at -150 for JM picks if another book's line is 1/2 point or greater difference from what Betus has.  Betus is the only book I know where I can buy 3 or more points and their line is almost always swayed against JM's plays. The max points you can buy at most other books is 2.  As an example The Clippers were +2.5 at Betus and +3 at Bookmaker.  So the decision is buy 3 (5.5) at Betus at -170, or buy 2 (5) at -150 and risk losing by 1/2 point.
  • JM called the NJ chase a win at the Jan. 18 A game (+8.5+3=+11.5). However looking back at the line movement Betus had +8.5 from 9:43 am to 9:53 am. After that it went to +8 and lower.  All other books had them at +8.5 or +9 but you can only buy 2 points so that would have been a push or loss.  The only way you could have won that chase is if you had Betus and placed the bet between 9:43 am and 9:53 am.
  • Other than that small window in the NJ series, buying 2 points did not affect the outcome of any JM chase.
  • As for the AJM, I hate losing by a half point so many times i will buy a half.


Thanks,  I use 5dimes you could buy a shit load of points...something like up to 10 -15 if you want, BetJamaica started to allow me to buy up to 10 points, the greek another good one, linesmaker only up to 3 points. I hope this helps you out, I've used these sites for several years with no problems...even linesmaker which is rated low NEVER game me a problem, I make my withdrawls from them so it goes directly into my bank account, 3 different time I made these withdrawls and usually 3-4 days I had my money, so I dont understand why they are ranked so low. I was wondering do you ever bet, lets say the "A" bet using both systems the same time...for  example todays game, take LA Clipperer buying the points so they would be +6 and then also bet the Washington -3 points. So your betting on both teams the same time. Im curious if you do that. Thanks fro the reply and gl
 
 
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Posted: #275
JM only claimed Rockets as a loss, but then created a new filter and applied it after the fact then said he has 0 losses.
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