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Anti-JM NBA Thread

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Posted: #426
Thunder -10.5
 
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Posted: #427
JM1_3/09_A_Jazz_-4/ml_-175_Betus_Won by 24_68-2
AJM_3/09_A_Bulls_+4.5_-110_Betus_Lost by 24
AJM_3/10_B_Pistons_+6_-110_Betus_Lost by 11
AJM_3/12_C_Bucks_-1_-110_Betus_Won by 8_70-2


JM1_3/08_A_Nets_+8.5/11.5_-170_Betus_Lost by 6_67-2
AJM_3/08_A_Grizzlies_-8_-110_Bmaker_Won by 6
AJM_3/10_B_Mavs_-10_-120_Betus_Won by 9
AJM_3/12_C_Thunder_-10.5_-110_W by 2
AJM_3/13_D_Rockets_-9.5_-110

JM2_3/12_A_Bulls_-11/14_-170_Betus_Lost by 13_72-2
AJM_3/12_A_Heat_-11_-110_Betus_Won by 13_71-2
 
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Posted: #428
Hey Smitler, big fan of your work and your system. I was just curious I thought JM filtered out betting the worst team in NBA (Nets).

Also, what unit wagering system do you use? Is it consistent for every single match up?

Thanks
 
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Posted: #429
Quote Originally Posted by SWAG5783:

Hey Smitler, big fan of your work and your system. I was just curious I thought JM filtered out betting the worst team in NBA (Nets).

Also, what unit wagering system do you use? Is it consistent for every single match up?

Thanks


Thanks swag and I believe you are right.  I looked at my emails and didn't see one from JM for Version 1 Nets.  I get the schedule from the sahlsa spreadsheet and simply blew it.
Hope Nets can shit the bed in Houston tonight but it seems like a lot of chalk.

My MM is not too consistent nor good for that matter.  If the A loses I usually just try to get my original bet back and round up to make the amount even.  Kinda depends on the teams and their ats record.
It seems like everytime I nut-up and increase my wager size and labby or martingale, it goes to a C and I shut up.

I will remove the nets series from the official record.
 
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Posted: #430
Dear Swag:
Thanks for the info.  Swayed me to lay off Houston tonight.
So this one will not count since it wasn't an official JM play.
Sorry if anybody played against the Nets.

JM1_3/08_A_Nets_+8.5/11.5_-170_Betus_Lost by 6_67-2
AJM_3/08_A_Grizzlies_-8_-110_Bmaker_Won by 6
AJM_3/10_B_Mavs_-10_-120_Betus_Won by 9
AJM_3/12_C_Thunder_-10.5_-110_W by 2
AJM_3/13_D_Rockets_-9.5_-110_W by 8

Both records are 71-2.
 
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Posted: #431
JM NBA V3.0

Jan 27 Miami Heat                             1-0
Jan 27 Denver Nuggets                       2-0
Jan 31 Golden State Warriors             3-0
Jan 31 Phoenix Suns                         4-0
Feb 1 Milwaukee Bucks                      5-0
Feb 3 New Jersey Nets                       6-0
Feb 3 Miami Heat                               7-0
Feb 3 Oklahoma City Thunder              8-0
Feb 3 San Antonio Spurs                     9-0
Feb 8 Dallas Mavericks                       10-0
Feb 10 Miami Heat                              11-0
Feb 16 Utah Jazz                                  12-0
Feb 17 Sacramento Kings                  12-1
Feb 25 Milwaukee Bucks                     13-1
Mar 2 Sacramento Kings                      14-1
Mar 3 Oklahoma City Thunder              15-1
Mar 10 Denver Nuggets                         16-1
Mar 12 Los Angeles Lakers                   17-1
Mar 14 Minnesota Timberwolves
Mar 14 New Orleans Hornets
Mar 18 Orlando Magic
Mar 19 Charlotte Bobcats
Mar 22 Miami Heat
Mar 24 Los Angeles Lakers
Apr 1 Portland Trailblazers
Apr 4 San Antonio Spurs
Apr 7 Utah Jazz
Apr 9 Dallas Mavericks
 
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Posted: #432
Smitler you rock!
Easy win with Phoenix and Sacramento!!!
 
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Posted: #433
Congrats EZ.  I had kings but laid off suns. Thankfully forgot to follow JM lastnite.
EZ be careful with those Version 3 plays.  There has already been a few chase losses flipping it.
 
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Posted: #434
JM1_3/15_A_Wizards_+11/14_-170_Betus
AJM_3/15_A_Jazz_-10.5_-110_Betus

My guess is this line goes to -10.


 
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Posted: #435
JM1_3/15_A_Wizards_+11/14_-170_Betus_L by 23
JM1_3/16_A_Wizards_+13.5/17_-195_Betus

AJM_3/15_A_Jazz_-10.5_-110_Betus_W by 23_72-2

 
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Posted: #436
Quote Originally Posted by smitler:

JM1_3/15_A_Wizards_+11/14_-170_Betus_L by 23
JM1_3/16_A_Wizards_+13.5/17_-195_Betus

AJM_3/15_A_Jazz_-10.5_-110_Betus_W by 23_72-2



hey smit, so the anti-jm has gone 72-2 on the 3 game chases? using 100(a) 200(b) 400(c) --EXAMPLE type bets? Are you buying the 3 points with the anti? I am an economics major and am doing a lot of regression analysis, and I would LOVE to do a project on this for my senior thesis. I'll read more in the thread to get a better understanding of this strategy. Cheers man, and thanks for your time!

Cole
 
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Posted: #437
Yes 3 games betting the opposite team and not required to buy points. Plus you almost always get at least a bonus 1/2 point if you use Betus.

There may have been a 4 game chase but I don't think either side went to 4. I would have to go back through the thread too make sure.

You can use that form of money management to place your wagers (Martingale). I don't, but I should. You can also straight bet it, labourchere it, or use any other wager method your heart desires.
Depends on what kind of risk you want to incur to get your reward.
 
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Posted: #438
 
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Posted: #439

Hey Smit, big fan of your work.  Here is a filter for the JM plays that might help reduce the number of C game loss.  Of the three system losses this season: Hou (12/27/09), Sac (2/21/10, might not have been a play because all games played against teams in the same conference), and NJN (1/22/10), Hou and Sac both came off 3-0 ATS and NJN was simply the worst road team in NBA.  I went back several years and found out that there were some system losses occured when a team go on road after at least 3-0 ATS.  

Keep up the great work  

 
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Posted: #440
Sounds good MJ.
Rockets V1 loss
Kings  V3 loss
Nets V1 win chances are if you bought 3 late the C bet won

Pistons V1 loss 12/15,16,18 what about this loss?

Did you backtest the wins to see if any fit this filter and won anyway?
If you regularly follow this thread make sure you post that helpful information.
 
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Posted: #441
JM1_3/15_A_Wizards_+11/14_-170_Betus_L by 23
JM1_3/16_A_Wizards_+13.5/17_-195_Betus_L by 10_72-2
AJM_3/15_A_Jazz_-10.5_-110_Betus_W by 23_72-2

JM1_3/17_A_Thunder_-1/+2_-213_Betphx
AJM_3/17_A_Bobcats_+2.5_-110_Betus

JM1_3/17_A_Bucks_-4.5/ml_-185_Betphx
AJM_3/17_A_Clippers_+5_-110_Betus

SWAG:
JM betters will drive the lines higher at Betus.

INFO:
Bucks and Thunder two of the best ats home and away.
Clips 6-2 ats and 7-2 su against Bucks
Clips are 2-8 ats last 10.
Toss-up with Thunder and Cats.

 
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Posted: #442
Clips up to +5.5 but Cats down to +2
 
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Posted: #443
smitler....minn a c play tonight?
 
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Posted: #444
Only if you have the balls to play them.  They got beat by 38 points last nite and the Jazz are a covering juggernaut.
I made a last minute play on them last nite. MISTAKE!!
JM does work in mysterious ways though.
I put them in a 10 point teaser somethin like this
Jazz-5
Wolves+25
Bulls +24
Cavs -4
I'm still afraid at +25.
 
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Posted: #445
Make the play.
 
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Posted: #446
Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:

Make the play.


On it!
 
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Posted: #447
 
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Posted: #448
LETS GO BOYS LETS CRUSH THE BOOKS 2NITE!!!
 
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Posted: #449
The Det serie came off a 5-0 ATS run.  If filter out teams coming off a 3-0 ATS run, it would have been a void serie.  Depending on when  you put in your play on the B game, it would have covered if you put in the play 5 minutes before game time and get +8.5 B3.  I put in mine 1 hour before game time and got +7.5 B3.  I abandoned C game because of the B game closing line.
 
 
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Posted: #450
BTW, I also voided the current MIN serie because it is the worst road team in the Western Conference.  So if you void series for team that came off at least 3-0 ATS and avoid the two worst road teams in each conference, you might save some $$$.  I have to test this going back several years.  Since 1 system loss wipe out 17 system wins.  It pays to walk away from a bad spot.
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