I took statistics in college and survived it (many, many years ago) and am now going through Statistical Analysis with Excel For Dummies to try to see if I can come up with ways analyzing the data available to predict the future.
I believe the key is massive research into past seasons and look at how various trends played out... looking for extremes... frequency of anomaly occurrence during a season. And yes I do know that crushing/bankroll destroying anomalies occur... I well remember being in Vegas when the roulette table beside the one I was at had 18 black in a row... The house made a fortune that night... People were betting every penny they had on red and black just kept coming and coming... I do believe the extremes of the past ten years can give us a very fair approximation of the extremes of future seasons. One thing I have noted from a specific data set is while a crushing/bankroll destroying anomaly does occur every season for every team it has not repeated for any team in a single season (so far)... I do believe that with enough research (10 years worth) I can come up with a system (underdog & >+100 bets) to make a comfortable living. The research I am doing is not just last seasons win/lose record but much much broader and in depth. For me to get a season compiled following one trend easily takes two days to get the data scattered across the internet onto a spreadsheets to be formatted. I figure it will take about 3 months/ 720 hours to assemble the data for analysis.
While I am not a Statistician I am curious if there are any actual Statisticians working on the winning statagy?