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Anyone playing the OOOUUU NCAAF system this season?

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Posted: #1
I played this last year and had 2 F-game losers, which wiped me out.

But I believe it has potential if filters are used.  I think some people played this using only top 25 teams?  Let me hear your take on this.

For clarification, you are betting that no team will have a record of UUUOOO for the first 6 games.  You use a SuperMartingale: 1,3,7,15,31,63.

I also used this in NFL last year starting with game 8(sorry, forgot who's idea this was...certainly not mine) and made 33 units.
 
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Posted: #2
[Systems & Strategies] Topic: NCAA Football -6 game chase 3480-1 since 1980
neilsy25 View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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Posted: 6/20/2010 9:27:28 PM

yup its true..i am basing this on 120 Div 1 teams times over 29 years ..could be a few more or less as a few years may not have had exactly 120 Div 1 teams....this chase had never lost since 1980 until last year when Bowling Green was the first  ...even then it made $$ . The key is to win one unit per team , once that team gets their unit you are done with them for the season ..sometimes simpler strategies are the easiest.... so what is the chase ?..since 1980 only 1 team has ever started the season with 3 unders followed by 3 overs.(i.e uuuooo) -Bowling Green last year..therefore you simply bet every team over there first 3 games..when they hit they are done...then bet the remaining teams under the next 3, once all teams are done you are done... definetely open to suggestions..but i think the smartest way to play this would be to use the grand martingale progression to 6 games as follows

1 -3-7-15-31-64   for  121 units..that way even if lightning strikes twice and we get another chase loss this year..we are going to make more than the 121 units we lost with the other 119 teams hitting on games 3,4,5 etc ..and if all teams complete the chase as has happened in 28 of the past 29 years you are looking at a minimum of 120 units profit..probably closer to 150-160 depending on which games of the progression the winners come in

- also i think it would be smart to not actually bet week one, to save the juice on 60 or so bets..and then in week 2 start with 3 units on all the teams that had Unders week one

..here is the query on sportsdatabase...

 
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Posted: #3
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=100774151
 
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Posted: #4
where is the info for division 1 teams located?
 
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Posted: #5
is this for pre-season or regular season?
 
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Posted: #6
so if a team has no line for the first 2 weeks and a line the 3rd week are they play?
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by jv040:

is this for pre-season or regular season?

Is there a preseason for NCAAF ? 

I would assume the system starts today since the season starts today.
 
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Posted: #8
is this for every team that has a line. what about teams where there's no line for a couple weeks.  I guess no preseason.
 
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Posted: #9
I played this last year on just the SEC teams. They all cashed within 3 games. I'm playing the SEC teams again this year.

jv040, if there is a non-lined game, just ignore and play the lined games.
 
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Posted: #10
I will be playing this in the NFL beginning in Week 3 I believe. I made somewhere around 34 or 35 units last year. I will try and find the thread I used.
 
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Posted: #11
I'm doing ncaaf for top 25 teams as posted by espn.  I'm only chasing first three weeks on the over.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by MCSI:

I played this last year on just the SEC teams. They all cashed within 3 games. I'm playing the SEC teams again this year.

jv040, if there is a non-lined game, just ignore and play the lined games.


MCSI,

Can you post the SEC games here?
 
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Posted: #13
I have the plays posted in my thread.

Lsu, Ga, Al, Sc, Auburn, MSU, have all hit on game A.

KY is a B bet today, I got it in but the game already started by the time I posted so I didn't list it.

So today's remaining plays should be.

FLA B bet O53.5

TN A bet O55

Vandy A bet O 43.5

ARK A bet O53.5

Ole Miss will be a B bet next week, since today's game is un lined.
 
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Posted: #14
So far so good.  Playing NCAAF and NFL.  College going as expected. I'm using the top 25 plus teams that had a better than .500 average on overs last season.  After week one I have 30 winners and 23 losers.  NFL is going great. 24 teams already eliminated, up 17.5 units.  Week 2 puts a lot more pressure on the bankroll betting 3 units on all remaining teams, so 96 units at risk(incl. juice).
GL to everyone playing this system.

                                       
 
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Posted: #15
Not so great this week in NCAAF. Only eliminated 10 teams with 16 still on the hook, putting more pressure on the bank, with a lot of 5unit bets for game #3.

NFL is great...29 teams eliminated after 2 games, only 3 teams left, with one going tonight(St. Louis) on MNF.
 
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Posted: #16
Big question here as there needs to be clarification on a HUGE Gray area.

Looking at Covers' history of teams, it shows that 11 teams would be a play this week in College. HOWEVER, 8 of these 11 teams have played against FCS (1AA) opponents. Covers has given a history of an O/U result on these games. In this System, are these games counted as O/U's or are they not counted yet (No Line)? Meaning the teams only have a 2-game history thus far this season?

I wonder if neilsy25 (the back-tester) or roguewager know the answer to this. Or anyone else for that matter?

Also, 2 of the other 3 teams that HAVE played all games against FBS (1A) opponents are playing against FBS (1AA) opponents this weekend. Are those going to be played against a line or will they simply be not counted?

This is a huge question as 10 of the 11 teams this weekend have either played or are playing vs 1AA teams. Will these count or not?

How was it back-tested? Were these games counted in the record back to 1980?

I can get totals on these from Bookmaker. These are all swing games, which means if the games/totals played against 1AA teams have counted or will count, then these teams' games need to be played as UNDERS this week. If they don't count, then 8 of these games need to still be played as OVERS on the third game. The other 2 games against 1AA would not be played.

Leaving us with 1 game this weekend: OHIO STATE UNDER in game four of the chase.
 
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Posted: #17
I just read the entire thread that roguewager copied above. This is based on only games VS FBS (1A) opponents!!!

I have not played any of these yet but I am jumping on board to ride it out.

Teams that would be a play this weekend, but are NOT due to having played an FCS (1AA) opponent are:
UCF
E. Michigan
UTEP
Mich. St.
Southern Miss
Duke
Penn St.
UConn

Teams that would be a play, but are NOT due to playing an FCS (1AA) opponent this weekend are:
Arkansas St.
Boston College

One team to play this weekend:
Ohio St. Under
 
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Posted: #18
My bad folks...there are actually 27 teams to play with a potential 28th being Kentucky. Kentucky Pushed last week, so now what? 2 Unders and a Push...which way do you go? Continue on and play a 3rd Over or start the Unders?

The only Under play is Ohio State. The rest are still Overs.

Teams to play their 2nd Over are:
E. Michigan
Rutgers
Kansas St.
Oregon St.

Teams to play their 3rd Over are:
UCF
UTEP
Michigan St.
Southern Miss
Duke
Penn St.
UConn
Oklahoma
UNC
Toledo
Ole Miss
Temple
Florida St.
Virginia Tech
Idaho
Fl. Atlantic
South Florida
Rice
Vanderbilt
Colorado St.
Arizona

My head was somewhere else. It is now out!

Good luck to all

Kentucky situation anyone?
 
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Posted: #19
Sorry this is after the fact, LSU, but I personally don't count pushes, and would have b et on Kentucky to go over.

NCAAF....I still have to eliminate Ohio State(playing game #5 10/1; Penn State, Illinois,V.Tech,Oregon State, and Louisiana Tech.

NFL...Jacksonville is the only team left to be eliminated.
 
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Posted: #20
Here is the list that I have remaining

3rd OVER
E. Michigan
Oregon St.

1st UNDER
UCF OFF
Southern Miss
Penn St.
UConn
UNC
Ole Miss
Temple
Virginia Tech
Fl. Atlantic
Vanderbilt OFF
illinois
 
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Posted: #21
The weekend went pretty well.  2 teams left in NCAAF, Louisiana Tech, and Illinois.

All teams eliminated in NFL, for a total win of 50 units.  It should have been more, but I haired out on some big wagers, betting smaller than the system called for.My bank has taken some big hits this year, and my huevos decided to shrink up. Still haven't made the wagers on the two college teams yet, calling for 46 units
 
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Posted: #22
How come you have those teams left ? They do not fit the system as far as I can see.
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by Snappa:

The weekend went pretty well.  2 teams left in NCAAF, Louisiana Tech, and Illinois.

All teams eliminated in NFL, for a total win of 50 units.  It should have been more, but I haired out on some big wagers, betting smaller than the system called for.My bank has taken some big hits this year, and my huevos decided to shrink up. Still haven't made the wagers on the two college teams yet, calling for 46 units

Isn't UConn on their 2nd under this week?
 
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Posted: #24
The only game I see going this week is FL ATL under (gm 5 of 6)
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by sahlsa:

How come you have those teams left ? They do not fit the system as far as I can see.


I know, Sahlsa.  It looks like those teams don't fit.   But Louis. Tech had a total of 69 vs. Houston, going over the Covers total of 681/2.  But I had them at 691/2 at my book.  But they finally covered me last week.  As for Ohio State, one of their Over games was against an unlined opponent, which doesn't count.  They are my final team to be eliminated, going UUUOO so far.  I probably won't have the balls to bet 63 units on that one game.


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