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ATS system plays

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Posted: #1
This is a very basic system that follows the best teams and fades the worst teams against the spread. This isn't a chase system and all plays are to win one unit (as opposed to risking one unit to win). The plays will include the top winners and losers from the WNBA, NCAAF, NFL, NCAABB and NBA so expect there to be a lot of plays on some days, especially in Nov.

The plays will follow the top 3 and bottom 3 teams in the WNBA according to wins, the top 7 and bottom 7 ranked NCAA FB teams according to preseason rankings, the top 4 and bottom 4 NFL teams according to wins, the top team and bottom team from 7 select NCAA Men's BB Conferences (yet to be determined), and the top 3 and bottom 3 NBA teams according to wins.

I've been working on this system for some time now. If past records and trends hold true, it should prove successful. Last year this system would have made over 150 units covering all 5 sports. Worth a shot.





 
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Posted: #2
8/26

Overall Rec: 0-0, +0 units



Our first two plays are WNBA plays on CONN and a fade on CHI. Since they are playing each other today, the play is on CONN -8 for 2 units.

Today's plays:

WNBA
CONN -8 (2u)


 
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Posted: #3
Good luck
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by nghia1973:

Good luck



 
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Posted: #5
8/27


Overall Rec: 0-2, -2.2u
WNBA Rec: 0-2, -2.2u




Off to a great start. No plays for today but several tomorrow.



 
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Posted: #6

jonny,

Interesting system. How do you pick NBA teams to play at the beginning of the season when you don't know who the top and bottom 3 are? Also do you use AP or coaches poll for NCAAF?

How long have you backtested?

Thanks for posting.

 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by Hosser:

jonny,

Interesting system. How do you pick NBA teams to play at the beginning of the season when you don't know who the top and bottom 3 are? Also do you use AP or coaches poll for NCAAF?

How long have you backtested?

Thanks for posting.



Hi Hosser. There are a number of preseason rankings available out there and we really only need them at the beginning of the season to pick our teams. For the first 5 games or so games, the NBA teams the system follows are MIA, LAL and OKC and the fades are CHA, ORL and HOU. I picked these based on rankings that I found online. After those 5 games or so, the teams we follow and fade are dictated by number of wins (for the most part).

As for NCAAF, I used preseason rankings also available on line. Bleacher Report has a ranking out in early August that I've used to pick the NCAAF teams. Based on the data I've collected, NCAAF teams 1-25 and 100-125 all show a profit. However, I am not about to make 50 plays a week so I trimmed it down to the top 7 and bottom 7. I don't know if the AP or Coaches poll rank all 125 teams but if they do, their rankings would probably agree with the teams I'm using for the system. Lastly, I backtested all sports 2-3 years and they all showed a profit. The thing to remember about this system is that it is going to be a long process with an expected growth of only a few units a week.



 
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Posted: #8
8/28


Overall Rec: 0-2, -2.2u
WNBA Rec: 0-2, -2.2u


We have 3 WNBA plays today. Two are fades on WAS and TUL and then we take CONN.


Today's plays:

WNBA
IND -12.5
ATL -12.5
CONN -3.5



 
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Posted: #9
Thanks for the response. I am assuming that as teams work their way into the top 3 or 7, that you switch to betting them once they do? Will you posting picks for a while? Thanks - Hosser
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by Hosser:

Thanks for the response. I am assuming that as teams work their way into the top 3 or 7, that you switch to betting them once they do? Will you posting picks for a while? Thanks - Hosser



The NCAAF teams are set and will not change. That is because I backtested entire seasons based on the preseason rankings. No need to keep shuffling those. And yes, the NBA, WNBA, NFL and NCAA BB will change as their seasons go on.



 
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Posted: #11
Oh, and yes, I'll be posting all the plays here daily until the system's cycle ends at the end of the NBA season.


 
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Posted: #12
Awesome. Cheers!
 
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Posted: #13
Looking forward to the system. Are all plays 2u?
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by pokerfacedjoker:

Looking forward to the system. Are all plays 2u?


No pfj, all plays are for 1 unit. You might be referring to post #2 in this thread where the play was on CONN -8 (2u). That play was 2 units because CONN is a top 3 scoring team, making them a play for 1 unit and their opponent, CHI, was in the bottom 3 of scoring so that made them a fade for 1 unit. Therefore, we had 2u on CONN.

And as far as how much one should play per unit, I think 3% of the bankroll would be a safe number.






 
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Posted: #15
Oh ok yea that clears it up for me I was referring to the conn play for 2u thanks. Great stuff! 
 
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Posted: #16
8/29


Overall Rec: 2-3, -1.3u
WNBA Rec: 2-3, -1.3u


We took 2 out of 3 last night so that's cool. No plays today but looks like 8 plays on Thursday - 5 WNBA and 3 NCAAF.




 
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Posted: #17
8/30

Overall Rec: 2-3, -1.3u
NCAAF Rec: 0-0, 0u
WNBA Rec: 2-3, -1.3u



There are several plays today, including the first NCAAF plays of the season. The teams we'll be playing this year are USC, LSU, ALAB, ORE, OKL, OHIST, MICH and the fades are on UTEP, UAB, RICE, HAW, TROY, CMICH, BUF, UNLV. Feel free to make your own top 7 and bottom 7 or just follow my picks here. Either way, you should be fine. There is a chance I may add a play on a team that is not on that list. If I do, it is because the card is light for that day and it's a match-up that aligns with our overall strategy. Such is the case with the MASS play tonight.

In the WNBA, note that we have a 2u play on the LA/TUL game, as LA's a play and TUL's a fade.


Today's plays:


NCAAF
UCLA -16 (RICE)
CONN -21.5 (MASS)
MINN -8.5 (UNLV)

WNBA
LA -9.5 (2u) (TUL)
SEA -14 (PHX)
ATL -9.5 (WAS)
CONN +7



 
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Posted: #18
8/31

Overall Rec: 6-7, -1.7u
NCAAF Rec: 2-1, +.9u
WNBA Rec: 4-6, -2.6u


Only one WNBA play tonight.


Today's plays:



WNBA
MIN -7.5 (TUL)




 
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Posted: #19

Thanks for continuously posting!

 
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Posted: #20

You meant -17.5 didn't you??? I am gonna tail your system plays for the season and would appreciate you post your plays earlier during the day. The damn time difference is huge.

Thanks

 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by Rusfan:

You meant -17.5 didn't you??? I am gonna tail your system plays for the season and would appreciate you post your plays earlier during the day. The damn time difference is huge.

Thanks




You're right, my Russian friend, it was supposed to be -17.5. Typo on my part. You're english is great. I will usually be posting plays early so you should be able to see every pick here with time to spare.






 
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Posted: #22
9/1

Overall Rec: 6-8, -2.8u
NCAAF Rec: 2-1, +.9u
WNBA Rec: 4-7, -3.7u


0-1 last night. Lots of plays today with a nice card full of NCAAF picks. Note that OKL and USC are both 2u plays since they are upper tier teams from our list playing lower tier teams from our list.

There are also 2 WNBA plays today with one 2u play on the SA/PHX matchup. Although SA is 4th in wins and usually not a play we put a unit on them because they have the best ATS rec in the league and PHX has the worst (and SA is only 1 win behind 3rd place LA). PHX was already a play since they're currently last in wins tied with WAS with 5 for the season.

As you might have figured out, I'm the teams we are fading are in parenthesis.

Today's plays:


NCAAF
OKL -30 (2u) (UTEP)
USC -42 (2u) (HAW)
LSU -44
ORE -37
OHIST -25.5
GEO -38.5 (BUF)


WNBA
SA -9 (2u) (PHX)
NY -8.5 (WAS)



have a great day.



 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by Hosser:

Thanks for continuously posting!



You got it, amigo. This is a journey to May.




 
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Posted: #24

For those who are interested, below is a link to the Playbook for this system. It's a schedule of upcoming plays (tentative) and a record of all the games played.


Playbook






 
 
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Posted: #25
Any reason why Alabama is not a play today?
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