Baseball Super Series Betting System

Sat, May 7 Picks

KC Royals +102
Sea Mariners -104
Florida Marlins -130
STL Cardinals -127
Col Rockies +118

2011Record: 3-2, Games 9-9-1, Units -1.23

Observer and OilCountry, thank you for your input. 

Observer, I just don't know why you think that it is so difficult to win at sports betting. I've even made money with John Morrison's systems (without the chase).

Forget about my system for the moment.  Only time will tell if it works.

This is my belief: Good money management + discipline = Advantage over bookies.

Let me explain...

Everyone thinks that you can't beat the bookies because of the juice.  People thinks that it gives them an unbeatable advantage.  Well, what if we could take the advantage from the bookies?

How do we do that?  Simply by using the Labouchere System.  Did you know that by using the labby system, you can break-even winning half of your bets even with -125 odds?

If this is possible, and I can prove it, then why does the bookie have the advantage?  Now, the question becomes who can't break-even with -125 odds?

Each wager should not be bigger than 1/2 to 1% of your bankroll.  Anyone can make money with discipline and a good understanding of numbers.  The problem is not that bettors can't make winning picks; it's that they don't understand money management.

Bob

Picks for Sunday, May 8th

Royals -105
Mariners -106
Marlins -147
Cardinals -133
Rockies -120

2011 Record: 3-3-0, Games 10-12-2, Units -3.19

Bob-

It's pretty tough to win at sports betting...observer is right about that.  No worries...you'll figure that out on your own.  If you do want to make a serious attempt at making this your trade, it's best you understand the intricacies of whatever strategy you choose to implore.  On the surface, many ideas (like labourchere) seem simple, but when you really think they get far more complicated.  I posted this in a thread last year and it merits posting again.  Perhaps it deserves it's own thread:

You cannot calculate the break even point for Labouchere!!.  Labourchere is about clearing lines, NOT counting units.  The reason you can't count units is that the order of the wins and losses matters if you are counting units.  Further, the number of possible outcomes increases exponentially, and the betting odds matter.  Let's say you start with a 10-10-10-10 line (meaning $20 units).  Now, let x= possible outcomes (that is a 2 in this case, you either win or you lose) and let y= the number of games you play before stopping.  To keep it simple and illustrate my point, lets say y=3 games.  In this case, there are a total of 8 possible outcomes (determined by raising x to the y power...in this case 2^3=8):   WWW, WWL, LWW, WLW, WLL, LWL, LLW, LLL.  Your outcome depends on the order, as shown (example assumes -110 odds and losses rounded to nearest dollar):

WWW: +3 units
WWL: +1.9 units
LWW: +1.5 units
WLW: +1.5 units
WLL:  -1.85 units
LWL: -0.6 units
LLW: -0.6 units
LLL: -5.35 units

Well, as you add on games, the number of possible outcomes increases exponentially.  If you look at 4 games, you have 16 different outcomes, 5 games, 32 outcomes and so on.  Also, your units fluctuate drastically with a change in odds.  You're talking about an infinite number of possibilities.  If you pass the 4 win mark and you have not cleared your lines, there is no telling what numbers you are playing from that point forward.

What you can calculate with the Labouchere is the percentage of wins it will take to clear your lines.  The reason for this is that you clear 2 numbers for every 1 win, but only add one number for a loss.  That's all that matters.  This number depends on 3 factors only:  The number of wins, the number of losses, and the number of figures you start your line with.  It doesn't matter what your odds are, and the order of wins and losses doesn't matter.  The equation for understand this is given as [( Y + Z ) / 2 = X,].  Here x = Number of Wins, Y = Number of Losses and Z= Number of figures you started with.

The important thing from that equation is that the number of figures you start with matters...especially in a real world scenario where you’ll have only 4 or 5 figures on your starting line.  If you start with 10-10-10-10-10 (five tens instead of four), then you need to win 45% to clear your line, or 9 out of 20 rather than 40% (8 of 20) when starting with 4 figures.

That whole point of Labouchere is to clear your lines without the units getting too out of hand.  If you focus on the units and not the clearing, you'll get in trouble quick.  If you're going to use these methods, it is very important that you understand them fully and know what you're getting into.

Leprechaun

rbies,  I don't ever like to be mean or rude to anyone, and you're probably a nice person, so let's just call this tough love.  You appear to be like a 16 year old kid who is convinced he knows a lot more than his 52 year father.  As far as this forum goes, you need to be taken out to the woodshed and horse-whipped for even the MENTION of such idiotic money management systems as LaBourchere, and for leading other novice sports bettors down the road to financial ruin with elementary nonsensical systems like the one you have promoted here.

Leprechaun, I agree with you.  I've been using labouchere for the last couple years.  It has worked better for me than flat betting.  I just make sure that the odds are not too high and that my starting bet is no more than 1/2% of my bankroll.  Of course it does get tricky when you have a long losing streak.  You have to be extremely disciplined when using it, as with any betting method.

Best of luck,

Bob

Observer, you make me laugh.

Have a good night.

rbies-

You missed the entire point of my post on labouchere.  Read it again.  Your odds of winning strictly because you use labouchere are no greater than they are if use martingale or if you throw darts at a board (well...maybe it's slightly better than that).  It's a tool that helps you deal with a system that trades many small wins for slightly/much bigger losses, but it does not guarantee you profit.  Nothing will do that except finding and edge that gives you a positive expectation. 

Allow me to restate observers point in a slightly more productive fashion.  You should listen to what he is saying because he is right.  His frustration with you is not really that you posted a system here, but the manor in which you posted it.  You built a website that has the clear intention of attracting followers to pay you for picks.  You then pass yourself off on said site as if you've been doing this with a great success rate for a long time when it is quite clear that is not the case.  The impression is that you are trying to rip people off and you are being dishonest...even if that is not your intention.  Your site asks for people to follow you.  I know you can't see it, but you are making a fool of yourself.  Don't feel bad about that...there are hundreds of people who do the same thing.  Being humbled is a good way to learn things.

Post your system if you want...that's a welcome addition to the forum, but you should be realistic about what it takes to turn a consistent profit.  Post the system for yourself, or for fun, or for your own record keeping...not to try to gain followers or convince people that you are smarter than the tens of thousands of gamblers that have come before you.  There is no place for that here...and if you continue to do it, you'll continue to draw a largely negative reaction.  Give yourself a chance to learn something.

Leprechaun

Bob, why do these threads all end in may and june?

It seems like there was some interesting give and take. Now, you've had some success. Maybe not what you hoped for at the beginning of the year, but I would love to hear how you feel about your system. And what you plan to do with it in the future.