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Betting +EV game bets in the 2H system

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Posted: #26
Jacksonville State 2H (9.05 units)
 
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Posted: #27
Murray State 2H (2.26 units)
 
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Posted: #28
1-2 and up 3.5 units today (thank you money management / betting based on edge).

Updated totals:

NCAAB: 12-8-1 (+7 units)
NCAAF: 0-1 (-4.4 units)
NBA: 4-4 (+5 units)
NFL: 1-3-1 (-14.7 units)

Overall: 16-14-2 (-7.1 units)
 
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Posted: #29
 
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Posted: #30
Charleston 2H (2.8 units)
 
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Posted: #31
Gonzaga 2H (2.97 units)
 
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Posted: #32
Updated totals...

NCAAB: 13-9-1 (+6.6 units)
NCAAF: 0-1 (-4.4 units)
NBA: 4-4 (+5 units)
NFL: 1-3-1 (-14.7 units)

Raptors 2H (3.61 units)
 
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Posted: #33
Arizona Cardinals 2H (6.68 units)
 
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Posted: #34
Correction:

SIA closed at +3 (100) on Arizona whereas Pinnacle has it +2.5 (-107)

The edge is 12.42 units, not 6.68 units.
 
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Posted: #35

Quote Originally Posted by goblue12:

System: Whenever you have a +EV wager between Pinnacle's line and Sports Interaction's line, bet it in the 2H.

Units? Based on the amount of edge you have. However I personally will avoid tracking games with little edge (below 1%).

Example:

Game: Oklahoma vs. Stanford
Pinny Line: OU -10 (-122)
SIA Line: OU -10 (-110)
Edge: 2.51%
Pick: Oklahoma 2H (regardless of the line and juice) for 2.51 units

You can use the Half Point Calculator to figure out the edge. Type in Pinny as the default and SIA in the area below with the projected lines.

https://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tools/Half+Point+Calculator.aspx

I will track each individual sports result in this thread.

 

Go Blue, can you go over this example step by step because you lost me.  I dont know what your typing in that calculator and what boxes you are using to get the result you got.  Also there is no box for pinny and sla like you aid in the example.

If you could break this example down step bt step, that would be great

thanks

cd

 
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by cd329:

 

Go Blue, can you go over this example step by step because you lost me.  I dont know what your typing in that calculator and what boxes you are using to get the result you got.  Also there is no box for pinny and sla like you aid in the example.

If you could break this example down step bt step, that would be great

thanks

cd



I will try my best to explain it, but personally I had to watch someone else use it first for me to figure it out...

- In the top half of the calculator, you enter in whatever line is listed at Pinnacle, an 8-cent book who should have the best side on every game vs. a 20-cent book. When they don't, it indicates the "sharp side".

- If Pinnacle is offering Boise State +2 (-102) vs. Louisiana Tech 2 (-108), You would enter in 2 for the spread, -108 for the fave price, and -102 for the dog price.

- Then you hit "calculate" and under the fave price and underdog price columns below, you enter in SIA's / Bodog's / WSEX's numbers (3 most beatable books IMO). Bodog is giving you Boise State +3 (-110) so in the dog price column at 3, replace -122.7 (expected value) with -110 and it will show you that there is a 2.7% edge on the Broncos if you play them at Bodog.

That is, until Bodog gives you the non-retarded line-set.

The reason that this has been losing thus far is because you would be willingly betting into negative propositions (-EV bets), such as Arizona yesterday. If you would have bet these at the beginning of the game like you should (or at half whenever you are getting the same or better game line) you would be up close to 40 units assuming my excel data tracking is correct.

Basically, there is no simple correlation between 2H cover and +EV game bets.
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