One of the worst bad beats I've suffered in a while. Can you imagine, going down the field with no problems at all, in field goal range which would have put WV ahead and then just handing them the ball just like that. Unbelievable.
BOL with the rest of the bowl season .
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meant * moosing * obviously
One of the worst bad beats I've suffered in a while. Can you imagine, going down the field with no problems at all, in field goal range which would have put WV ahead and then just handing them the ball just like that. Unbelievable.
Yea, figured you had Cal...although you never mentioned them on your "picks" till the 17th...when there was no -6 anywhere. Easy to pick winners on the close games when you don't disclose your line. Think WVU opened at either +1 or "P"...guess I had a winner there??
Stepped up pretty good on CMU/FAU total too? You asked me to stay off your thread, I complied. Again, different shoes for different feet I guess...
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Yea, figured you had Cal...although you never mentioned them on your "picks" till the 17th...when there was no -6 anywhere. Easy to pick winners on the close games when you don't disclose your line. Think WVU opened at either +1 or "P"...guess I had a winner there??
Stepped up pretty good on CMU/FAU total too? You asked me to stay off your thread, I complied. Again, different shoes for different feet I guess...
Straight-Up winners now stand 8-3 ATS...NC and Miami dogs Sat..
"Stat-winners" now 10-1 SU..
Chalk ATS 5 Win, DOG ATS 6 Win...
INDEPENDENCE BOWL--a sandwich game here..a few good games yesterday, a couple tomorrow..no real fire-power here...but for some reason, a big late public move? To date this Bowl season, we've seen 2 fairly significant line swings. The public pounded Memphis (from +13 to +10.5) only to watch them murdered 51-13. Troy (-2 to -4.5) followed-up with a SU loss to SoMiss 30-27. Tonight we have a similar situation, having seen the public make a strong move with LaTech, opened at +2, now laying chalk of same amount! Vegas' initial line in the first two proved "closer" to the outcome than the public perception and I expect the same tonight. Seems difficult to prove (or dis-prove) a significant advantage here for either side. Think the MAC a bit stronger competition, played close ones also in losses at Minny and Tenn. Not selling LaTech short, but think the Huskies the better Defense, the better special teams, and 27 Seniors with experience. No significant Angles, no System qualifier here..
NORTHERN ILL (24-20) + 2 *1* Lean Only
Good Luck
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Straight-Up winners now stand 8-3 ATS...NC and Miami dogs Sat..
"Stat-winners" now 10-1 SU..
Chalk ATS 5 Win, DOG ATS 6 Win...
INDEPENDENCE BOWL--a sandwich game here..a few good games yesterday, a couple tomorrow..no real fire-power here...but for some reason, a big late public move? To date this Bowl season, we've seen 2 fairly significant line swings. The public pounded Memphis (from +13 to +10.5) only to watch them murdered 51-13. Troy (-2 to -4.5) followed-up with a SU loss to SoMiss 30-27. Tonight we have a similar situation, having seen the public make a strong move with LaTech, opened at +2, now laying chalk of same amount! Vegas' initial line in the first two proved "closer" to the outcome than the public perception and I expect the same tonight. Seems difficult to prove (or dis-prove) a significant advantage here for either side. Think the MAC a bit stronger competition, played close ones also in losses at Minny and Tenn. Not selling LaTech short, but think the Huskies the better Defense, the better special teams, and 27 Seniors with experience. No significant Angles, no System qualifier here..
Buc... one thing i don't like is people piling on... so my compliment really was a compliment... you know what they say, when you can't say something nice, don't say anything... i saw your 3 unit players were undefeated and figured that was something i wanted to look into... i can see how you would take it as sarcasm, though... but i wasn't going to post any bashing on your thread for the same reason you didn't post any on mine... as far as i'm concerned, all talking about a game should be done beforehand... those who talk afterwards (win or lose) are low-class... hang tough!
Program... that first stat you posted has been solid for pretty much every year for as long as i've been betting Bowls... for all games with a spread under DD, throw out the spread and just pick the winner... if you can do that consistently, you will win money...
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Buc... one thing i don't like is people piling on... so my compliment really was a compliment... you know what they say, when you can't say something nice, don't say anything... i saw your 3 unit players were undefeated and figured that was something i wanted to look into... i can see how you would take it as sarcasm, though... but i wasn't going to post any bashing on your thread for the same reason you didn't post any on mine... as far as i'm concerned, all talking about a game should be done beforehand... those who talk afterwards (win or lose) are low-class... hang tough!
Program... that first stat you posted has been solid for pretty much every year for as long as i've been betting Bowls... for all games with a spread under DD, throw out the spread and just pick the winner... if you can do that consistently, you will win money...
Program---all picks are on this thread, so easy enough to total. The up-to-date Bowl SU, ATS, and Stat-winners I track are not; with 22 Bowls to play, the record to date is irrelevant to the final outcome anyway, isn't it? What was the NY Giant record this time last year? Our record for Today's Games is 0-0 with 2 to Play. This time tomorrow it will be 0-0 with 3 to Play...yesterday's picks have no bearing on today's picks. Very simply...what I've stated a hundred times: if you don't like my pick, don't play my pick; I am not asking you to or trying to persuade anyone into taking a certain team, only offering what I consider to be rationale for that pick. You are getting the same teams that 56 people are actually subscribing for: as such, we are OBLIGATED to release a pick on EVERY game. Some we're not crazy about! That's why they get rated. Of 12 completed games, only 3 (USF, ND, FlaSt) have seen a clearcut ATS-winner with 3 minutes remaining; a bounce, a whistle, a penalty here or there has decided a few of these outcomes. Most of the crap Bowls are done, the majority of the big boys are still waiting to suit-up. Tendencies change in a heartbeat; if you don't agree I'd guess you haven't been playing long!
AS MENTIONED FROM THE BEGINNING OF THIS THREAD, "GAME OF YEAR" and "UNDERDOG OF YEAR" are going Tues and Wed. Same teams we've had circled since Bowl lines came out.
Continued luck with your plays...
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Program---all picks are on this thread, so easy enough to total. The up-to-date Bowl SU, ATS, and Stat-winners I track are not; with 22 Bowls to play, the record to date is irrelevant to the final outcome anyway, isn't it? What was the NY Giant record this time last year? Our record for Today's Games is 0-0 with 2 to Play. This time tomorrow it will be 0-0 with 3 to Play...yesterday's picks have no bearing on today's picks. Very simply...what I've stated a hundred times: if you don't like my pick, don't play my pick; I am not asking you to or trying to persuade anyone into taking a certain team, only offering what I consider to be rationale for that pick. You are getting the same teams that 56 people are actually subscribing for: as such, we are OBLIGATED to release a pick on EVERY game. Some we're not crazy about! That's why they get rated. Of 12 completed games, only 3 (USF, ND, FlaSt) have seen a clearcut ATS-winner with 3 minutes remaining; a bounce, a whistle, a penalty here or there has decided a few of these outcomes. Most of the crap Bowls are done, the majority of the big boys are still waiting to suit-up. Tendencies change in a heartbeat; if you don't agree I'd guess you haven't been playing long!
AS MENTIONED FROM THE BEGINNING OF THIS THREAD, "GAME OF YEAR" and "UNDERDOG OF YEAR" are going Tues and Wed. Same teams we've had circled since Bowl lines came out.
I apologize, not trying to invade your thread. I won't post on it anymore. I always take my own plays (Ala FSU as posted here) so there would be no need for me to complain about your picks. I enjoy the writeups.
Thanks for the clarification Ice.
Best to you both in the big games, got a couple locks myself.
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I apologize, not trying to invade your thread. I won't post on it anymore. I always take my own plays (Ala FSU as posted here) so there would be no need for me to complain about your picks. I enjoy the writeups.
Thanks for the clarification Ice.
Best to you both in the big games, got a couple locks myself.
Hey PROGRAM--no apologies expected, no apologies needed. Just wanted to clarify myself, did not take your question as anything other than a question. Good Luck with your games..
And to get it out of the way and not to clutter the later picks:
NIU won the stats by 100+ yds...controlled Time-of-Possession but 3 TO's tough to overcome!!
SU Winner now 9-3 ATS
Stat-Winner now 10-2 ATS
Chalk/Dogs now 6-6
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Hey PROGRAM--no apologies expected, no apologies needed. Just wanted to clarify myself, did not take your question as anything other than a question. Good Luck with your games..
And to get it out of the way and not to clutter the later picks:
NIU won the stats by 100+ yds...controlled Time-of-Possession but 3 TO's tough to overcome!!
A preface of note: As stated in above Posts, with our TOP 2 Bowl Games going Tues (1) and Wed (1), we will be posting "early" picks prior and separately from the "late" games.
PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL--2 red-hot teams here in what appears to be a shoot-out. Rutgers has rolled to 6 straight wins, NC St 4 in a row. Rutgers faced 8 Bowl teams (4-4 SU) while the WolfPack faced 10 (4-6 SU). Amazingly, NC ST went to post as "DOG" in 11 lined games...with a 7-1 ATS vs. winning teams and9-2 ATS Overall. Coach Tom O'Brien with 7 consecutive Bowlwins, 6-1 ATS. Good special teams with strong TO margin...could be a factor here, as Rutgers has also shown positive TO ratio the late part of the season after early season deficit! NCSt QB Wilson...first Freshman to earn ACC 1st team at that position; has gone 226 passes without a pick but State will establish the run 1st, typical O'Brien football. Rutgers QB Teel likewise performed like a man possessed down the stretch after 2-4 start. Schiano has somehow managed to return to a balanced attack (after losing Ray Rice to the NFL) 2nd half of the season. Rutgers, however, is in a role they have hardly flourished in...as chalk between 3.5-10, they have gone 1-6 ATS over the last 3 yrs., and 0-3 this year. Both squads show the motivation, have the Coaching, have strong Upperclassmen leadership. Both used a tremendous amount of energy just to get Bowl-eligible...who has the most gas left in the tank? Think NCSt has the experience of playing in a few moreclose (10 pt or less margins) games; 8 as opposed to 4. Not the high-scoring shootout some expect, this one also fits the same situational Bowl angle that's now 15-2 after hitting in Miami's cover Sat. We'll side with O'Brien's experience and leadership...and hope the Pack has a little more gas left! NORTH CAROLINA ST + 6.5 *3* ALAMO BOWL--Simply going to throw-out the tech's and stat's here and hope this is one of those INTANGIBLE games that we think it could be. Chase Daniel, Jeremy Macklin, BIG-12 Championship Game 2 years in a row. Pre-season Heismann hopeful, pre-season National Championship contender, early ranking as high as #3. Then OKLA St. whacked 'em; then Texas; then Kansas; finally OKLA ran rough-shod. Teams off B-B embarassments (gave up 102 pts last 2!) are often good bets when getting points...but laying 13?? How badly do these guys really want to be in this Bowl against a lack-lustre Big10 bottom-feeder? Also noteworthy that Mizzou has over 25 players from the state of Texas, increased possibility for pre-game preparation distraction time? Opposite, consider a Northwestern outfit that is thrilled to be going to ANY Bowl ANYwhere, it's been a long 13 years! Coming in off 2 out-right Dog wins, won 4 this season in that role. Have 2 adequate (one passer, one rusher) QB's that may alternate , have RB Tyrell Sutton and DL Vince Browne back from injury, and have enough smarts to hopefully keep this within the lofty spread. Mizzou has been Defense weary all season...yes they score often, but the downside being they average only 26 min. Time-of-Possession. We're still in Dec. where double-digit fave's usually are the kiss of death. Trend followers can note that . Big 12 teams have lifetime 4-10 ATS record in this Bowl. Big10 (after Wisky loss Sat) now stand 9-4 ATS recently. Just think the INTANGIBLE incentive of WANTING to PLAY in THIS BOWL a lot higher for the Wildcats than for the Tigers..and hope for some favorable bounces along the way! NORTHWESTERN + 12 *2*
GOOD LUCK!!
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A preface of note: As stated in above Posts, with our TOP 2 Bowl Games going Tues (1) and Wed (1), we will be posting "early" picks prior and separately from the "late" games.
PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL--2 red-hot teams here in what appears to be a shoot-out. Rutgers has rolled to 6 straight wins, NC St 4 in a row. Rutgers faced 8 Bowl teams (4-4 SU) while the WolfPack faced 10 (4-6 SU). Amazingly, NC ST went to post as "DOG" in 11 lined games...with a 7-1 ATS vs. winning teams and9-2 ATS Overall. Coach Tom O'Brien with 7 consecutive Bowlwins, 6-1 ATS. Good special teams with strong TO margin...could be a factor here, as Rutgers has also shown positive TO ratio the late part of the season after early season deficit! NCSt QB Wilson...first Freshman to earn ACC 1st team at that position; has gone 226 passes without a pick but State will establish the run 1st, typical O'Brien football. Rutgers QB Teel likewise performed like a man possessed down the stretch after 2-4 start. Schiano has somehow managed to return to a balanced attack (after losing Ray Rice to the NFL) 2nd half of the season. Rutgers, however, is in a role they have hardly flourished in...as chalk between 3.5-10, they have gone 1-6 ATS over the last 3 yrs., and 0-3 this year. Both squads show the motivation, have the Coaching, have strong Upperclassmen leadership. Both used a tremendous amount of energy just to get Bowl-eligible...who has the most gas left in the tank? Think NCSt has the experience of playing in a few moreclose (10 pt or less margins) games; 8 as opposed to 4. Not the high-scoring shootout some expect, this one also fits the same situational Bowl angle that's now 15-2 after hitting in Miami's cover Sat. We'll side with O'Brien's experience and leadership...and hope the Pack has a little more gas left! NORTH CAROLINA ST + 6.5 *3* ALAMO BOWL--Simply going to throw-out the tech's and stat's here and hope this is one of those INTANGIBLE games that we think it could be. Chase Daniel, Jeremy Macklin, BIG-12 Championship Game 2 years in a row. Pre-season Heismann hopeful, pre-season National Championship contender, early ranking as high as #3. Then OKLA St. whacked 'em; then Texas; then Kansas; finally OKLA ran rough-shod. Teams off B-B embarassments (gave up 102 pts last 2!) are often good bets when getting points...but laying 13?? How badly do these guys really want to be in this Bowl against a lack-lustre Big10 bottom-feeder? Also noteworthy that Mizzou has over 25 players from the state of Texas, increased possibility for pre-game preparation distraction time? Opposite, consider a Northwestern outfit that is thrilled to be going to ANY Bowl ANYwhere, it's been a long 13 years! Coming in off 2 out-right Dog wins, won 4 this season in that role. Have 2 adequate (one passer, one rusher) QB's that may alternate , have RB Tyrell Sutton and DL Vince Browne back from injury, and have enough smarts to hopefully keep this within the lofty spread. Mizzou has been Defense weary all season...yes they score often, but the downside being they average only 26 min. Time-of-Possession. We're still in Dec. where double-digit fave's usually are the kiss of death. Trend followers can note that . Big 12 teams have lifetime 4-10 ATS record in this Bowl. Big10 (after Wisky loss Sat) now stand 9-4 ATS recently. Just think the INTANGIBLE incentive of WANTING to PLAY in THIS BOWL a lot higher for the Wildcats than for the Tigers..and hope for some favorable bounces along the way! NORTHWESTERN + 12 *2*
DoublePsy--No lean on the total...once was instructed by a wise old bookie to always avoid playing any NCAA total unless it's between 35 and 65, to pass on anything under 35 or over 65...a TO here or there can kill either too easily..
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DoublePsy--No lean on the total...once was instructed by a wise old bookie to always avoid playing any NCAA total unless it's between 35 and 65, to pass on anything under 35 or over 65...a TO here or there can kill either too easily..
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Good luck with your picks - but I think Chase Daniel & co will score 40+ points againts Northwestern.
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