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Bump Set Spike - (The BSS Strategy..not quite BS)

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Posted: #76
....what is the next play????
 
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Posted: #77
Dam day job getting in the way.
I'll try to fill in for unohuim sarting tomorrow for the time being
Seems simple enough to track
Haven't kept up with the record though
Them overs had been climbing up to 6 I noticed more recently
Hmmm...
Well time to make the donuts
 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by unohuim:

when visiting teams that are 3g5d,
1. home teams are 18-5 (13-2 w/ losing record)
2. over is 15-8 (11-4 w/ losing record)
 
when visiting teams are b2b,
1. home teams are 20-11 (14-4 w/ losing record)
2. over is 18-3 (12-6 w/ losing record)
 
when combined,
1. home teams are 9-4 (6-2 w/ losing record)
2. over is 9-4 (7-1 w/ losing rec)
 
 
 


Heres the last known track of this I've been playing it since then but not tracking. If I get some time later I'll track the record back for you guys.

No plays for tonight.
 
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Posted: #79
Looks like the only sure wager is taking the over.  Even though the totals have been climbing to 6, that would just make some pushes instead of wins. 

So I am guessing if the home team is B2B or 3g in 5D they would not be played even if the away team was in the same spot?
 
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Posted: #80
folks, i'm back.  plus, i'm back tracking it all.  the good news is that my last track was for dec 21, not 17.  :)  gained 4 days already.  not certain how long this will take, but i'll be posting tonights plays very very soon.
 
sorry for being away for so long.  world juniors becomes my life, being a Canadian.
 
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Posted: #81
sigh....so no plays tonight!
 
pittsburgh is b2b, but a home team. 
 
good luck to all!
 
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Posted: #82
 
Prospect
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by unohuim:

when visiting teams that are 3g5d,
1. home teams are 18-5 (13-2 w/ losing record)
2. over is 15-8 (11-4 w/ losing record)
 
when visiting teams are b2b,
1. home teams are 20-11 (14-4 w/ losing record)
2. over is 18-3 (12-6 w/ losing record)
 
when combined,
1. home teams are 9-4 (6-2 w/ losing record)
2. over is 9-4 (7-1 w/ losing rec)
 
 
 


Okay so these numbers are from 12/19 to 1/5. I went thru this a little fast but here what I got..........

when visiting teams that are 3g5d,
1.home teams are 47-32(19-7 w/losing record)
2.over is 37-35(13-12 w/losing record)

when visiting teams are b2b,
1.home teams are 15-4(7-0 w/losing record)
2.over is 11-8 (4-3 w/losing record)

when combined,
1.home teams are 10-2 (4-0 w/losing record)
2.over is 8-4 (3-1 w/losing record)

curios to see how close these are to yours Uno.
 
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Posted: #84

thanks Stake.
no plays tonight.

 

 
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Posted: #85
Thanks for the work Stake.

Do you have any idea how much juice those home favs were laying?




 
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Posted: #86
If I had to put a guess on it I'd say -175 avg maybe higher. When I get a chance maybe I'll go back test the ML and test it with the home team -1 see if we could save some juice. It also might be worth tracking when the home team is 3g5d/b2b see how the visitors do on ML/PL. What do you guys think?

plays tonight
3g5d visiting teams:
Ott @ Bos losing record
Min @ Phi winning record
Pit @ Nas winning record
Ana @ Lak winning record
Atl @ Njd losing record (Njd are also playing their 3rd game in 5 days)
Chi @ Col winning record (Col are also playing their 3rd game in 5 days)


 
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Posted: #87
Heres the home teams that are 3g5d tonight not betting these just seeing how they do.

Car@Fla
Nyi@Cal
Tor@Mtl
Tbl@Phx
 
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Posted: #88
Well with an average lay of -175, unit wise I don't think that would show much of a profit.  I say that anything of -150 or more should be played on a -1 or -.5 regulation line.

That will cut some of the juice losses but will cut a few wins by making them pushes or losses on the -.5 line. 
 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by Stake24:

If I had to put a guess on it I'd say -175 avg maybe higher. When I get a chance maybe I'll go back test the ML and test it with the home team -1 see if we could save some juice. It also might be worth tracking when the home team is 3g5d/b2b see how the visitors do on ML/PL. What do you guys think?



i had been tracking this, but the home teams are 8-2 when THEY are 3g5d with a losing record.  With a winning record, they're 5-5.  Makes no sense, so I stopped tracking it.  The same madness happens when home teams are b2b.

 
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Posted: #90

Quote Originally Posted by Stake24:


plays tonight
3g5d visiting teams:
Ott @ Bos losing record
Min @ Phi winning record
Pit @ Nas winning record
Ana @ Lak winning record
Atl @ Njd losing record (Njd are also playing their 3rd game in 5 days)
Chi @ Col winning record (Col are also playing their 3rd game in 5 days)

The plays I have tonight are the following;

OTT, MIN, PIT as visiting 3G5D teams.  Pick the home teams, and the over on these.  The exception is the over on the Minny game.  They have a winning record, which scews Over results in this scenario.

To speak on the loss of juice, I've been tracking something else that's interesting.  Of the 18 times when a visiting team with a losing record is 3g5d, 13 of those 18 times, the game was won by 2 or more goals.  Hence, Puckline.  Thus, mo ju.  72%

 
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Posted: #91
also keep in mind, home teams in general are 95-53.  Since december, minus the 2 weeks I've been away.
 
 
 
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Posted: #92
95-53?! That's a very impressive record man!

It will be great to see results for previous seasons. Anybody backtested this system for 2006 and 2007 season?


 
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Posted: #93
when visiting teams that are 3g5d,
1.home teams are 50-35(20-8 w/losing record)
2.over is 40-38(14-13 w/losing record)

when visiting teams are b2b,
1.home teams are 15-4(7-0 w/losing record)
2.over is 11-8 (4-3 w/losing record)

when combined,
1.home teams are 10-2 (4-0 w/losing record)
2.over is 8-4 (3-1 w/losing record)

no plays tonight
 
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Posted: #94
Quote Originally Posted by Stake24:

Heres the home teams that are 3g5d tonight not betting these just seeing how they do.

Car@Fla
Nyi@Cal
Tor@Mtl
Tbl@Phx


Home team won all 4 I'll keep tracking for a couple days.

 
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Posted: #95
Actually Tbl @ Ana is a play but ana is 3g5d and tbl are b2b

play Ana
 
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Posted: #96
5-0 last night folks.
 
good thing I held off the Over on Minny.
 
 
 
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Posted: #97
Stake, thanks for helping out.  I could be wrong, but I think your numbers may be a tad off.  I only say that because of some numbers I have that are higher than yours, and my numbers are missing a few days.
 
what I have, (minus Dec 23 - Jan 5; this will be caught up in 14 days)
 
when visiting teams are 3g5d,
1.home teams are 25-6 (17-3 w/losing record)
2.over is 20-11 (15-5 w/losing record)

when visiting teams are b2b,
1.home teams are 27-14 (18-5 w/losing record)
2.over is 24-17 (15-8 w/losing record)

when combined,
1.home teams are 13-5 (8-3 w/losing record)
2.over is 12-6 (9-2 w/losing record)
 
TB is the only play tonight, as they are B2B.  Yes, ANA is B2B, and 3G5D, but home teams don't usually impact this stat.
 
I'm going ANA in regulation, and O+5.5
 
BOL
 
 
 
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Posted: #98
That's cool Uno I went through the games fast your numbers are probably accurate.


 
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Posted: #99
Hiller needs to be hunted down tonight.


 
 
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Posted: #100
Unohuim,
 
Never bet a hockey game in my life ... after reading this thread, i just became a big fan of the game ... continued success with your system ... thanks for the effort (you to Stake24) !!!
 
anna31204
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