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Chase System: Phillies, NYY, Cardinals

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Prospect
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Posted: #26
Running around busy and
forgot about the YANKS today

BUT GOOD GOING NOLE !!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #27
All I can say is, WOW the yankees are sick good. Picked up the ML cheap last night too @-133.
 
So we are now 3-0 with the Yankees. All 3 winning on the A game.
 
All three series are now undefeated and are 7-0, all on the A game!
 
Now rocking a sweet +7 units (+175) so far. I hope we can get through one more undefeated night because...
 
I am raising my units. Was betting to win 1 unit ($25).
 
Now will move it up to win 2 units ($50). I am done chasing other systems for the season, so I have my entire bankroll available for this system. Besides, this new amount is still less than 3% of my bankroll.
 
Plus, I feel strong about starting this tonight with Wainright pitching for STL. going against the Pirates and Cliff Lee and the Phils going against Houston. Top notch pitchers on division winning teams going against scrub teams.
 
So:
 
STL. -250 (ouch that's high) $125/$50. But sticking with my plan. Must be disciplined.
 
Phillies -125 (why is cliff lee so cheap here? Are they resting 1/2 the Phils tonight?) $62.50/$50.
 
Good luck everyone.
 
And don't sweat it Chicano, make it up on another game. As I told a buddy last night, you don't have a serious gambling problem as long as you are not losing long term...
 
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Posted: #28
So far so good!
 
I was thinking of laying an unit on the Yanks too, but with the Doc on the mount for the jays, it could go thier way so I'll stick with you!
 
Good luck tonight!
 
 
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Posted: #29
Nole, keep up the great work.Record speaks for itself.Wainwright (STL) has a 1.29 ERA 2nd half of the season..Good Luck Tonight. 
 
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Posted: #30
Well, finally lose an A bet. Damn. I said in my post yesterday I did not understand why Lee and the Phils were so cheap at -125. Well, now I do. They lose 7-0.
 
Did win on Stl. last night Stl 3-0 overall. NYY 3-0 overall. Phils 2-0, B game pending.
 
Now 8-1 overall record. +6.5 units (+$162.50)
 
8 A Wins. 1 A Loss. B bet pending on Phils.
 
Tonight: Phillies -101. The RL is available @ -220, but that is a horrible value, and I ain't layin that even though that is what my system calls for.  So, trying to just win back last night's loss, no proftit. Phils -101 63.12/62.50
 
GL to all
 
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Posted: #31
UUUUUUGGGGGHHH!!!!
 
Brad Friggin' Lidge blows another game. The phils have problems. No way they make it to, or win the WS again with a closer like this.
 
And the RL would have won it for me. Typical.
 
Game 3 coming up tomorrow. Phillies are due to blow someone out. I hope it's tomorrow.
Will be betting to only win back some of the A and B losses. Will make up profit on the next series.
 
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Posted: #32
Ok, Cole Hamels on the mound today. He's been back on track lately. Expecting a win here.
 
Phils -170. Wagering 255/150. Trying to make back A and B losses plus about 1 unit profit.
 
GL.
 
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Posted: #33
Philly is still a good bet. They where swept twice in a row in June, Then came back strong. Like your Idea, I am sure you will show a profit at the end of the month.
 
Good Luck
Phishalot
 
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Posted: #34
Ah Crap. Phils must be partying this holiday weekend, and just don't care right now.
 
I will be taking the Phils in Game 4, but only wagering to win 2 units. I need to make back alot after losing a, b, and c bets, but not going all in here. Glad I did not double up each time. Looking to make up units on Yankees and Cards, and when phils play Washington 2wice in the next 2 weeks. That will be the opportunity to get some back. Will probably step up to win 4 units in those series.
 
Phils -180. $90/$50
 
Stl. -220 $110/$50
 
NYY -180 $90/$50
 
I will update everything Tuesday. GL.
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #35
houston can suck my balls.

do we hit the phils hard tomorrow against the nats?
 
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Posted: #36
UH Geeze. I guess we still take this Phils. They really wrecked my plans. Looks good though with enough series left to dig out.
 
Ny and Stl. win again on the A level, so that is nice. They are now 4-0 on their series, all winning on game 1 (or A game if you prefer).
 
The Phils are 3-1 in 4 series, with 4 individual losses. That's -18.8 units OUCH (-$470.62).
 
So we are at 10-4 overall game record. 10-1 on total series record. Over all units/$: -5.8 units/-$145.
 
I am gonna step up the units on Philly to win 4 units ($100) during this Washington series. Let's hope it comes in tonight.
 
 So the Phuckers really put a dent in the profit, but that is life and there is time to make it up. To those following, lesson to be learned in not doubling up your losses when chasing. A 4 series chase loss would have cost me a lot more than $470. Would have been well over $1000 if I doubled up all the way through.
 
Will probably bump up the NYY and STL units in their next series too. Hope to be back into profit by the end of the week.
 
Today: Phillies -145. Wagering $145/$100 (4 units).
 
GL.
 
 
 
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Posted: #37
Oh shit! Now JM has Nats as his next series.
 
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Posted: #38
Reposting the remaining schedules her for reference:
 
Cardinals:
Atl (3), Fla (3), Cubs (3), @Hou (3), @Col (3), @Cin (3), Mil (3)
 
Yankees:
Bal (3), LAA (1), Tor (2), @Sea (3), @ LAA (3), Bos (3), KC (3), @Tam (3)
 
Phillies:
@Was (3), Mets (4), Was (3), @Atl (3), @Fla (3), @Mil (4), Hou (4), Fla (3)
 
Will be skipping the NYY single game against LAA. Will do the 2 game series at home vs. Toronto.
 
All 3 teams are gonna win their divisio, but I feel that they still have alot to play for in that they want to clinch home field advantage in the Divisional series they will play.
Thought about dumping the Phillies from the system, but they have the easiest remaining schedule of the 3 we're chasing. AND they play Houston again, and this time at home. That should be a great make-up series.
 
BOL to all.
 
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Posted: #39
Smitler, the Phillies not winning at least 1 of 3 against Washington will go down as the biggest shock in my life. While anything is possible, I like going into this series than if they were going on the road vs. STl, COL, SF, or LAD. So, gotta stick with the plan and stay disciplined.
 
Go ahead and take that Washinton side
 
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Posted: #40
That was a close one. Brad F'n Lidge loads the bases in the 9th with one out. They finally pull his lemon ass and bring in Madsen who shuts it down.
 
Phew!!
 
Back on track. Made up 4 units on that one ($100). Should be back on the plus side overall by this weekend.
But will have to do some serious consideration on dumping the Phils from the system. It is such a risk to go into the 9th with these guys on a regular basis with no clear stopper. If Madsen could just get his head right, he'd be a great closer.
Lidge is really a shame for the Phils. A team does not need that stress at the end of every game, and does not need the distraction going into the playoffs.
 
 
 
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Posted: #41
what if you swap out the phillies for the bosox? only 2 games up in the wild card so they have an incentive to play hard. they have a legitimate rotation and closer.
 
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Posted: #42
On3, funny you mention Bosox. I was thinking of them or Texas.
But then Madsen saves another game tonight (albeit against the Nats).
We'll see. Got another day to think on it. I need to look at schedules. But you're right, need to look at the few teams that are playing for their place in the playoffs.
 
 
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Posted: #43
Colorado is the best option.. imo
 
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Posted: #44
Add in FLORIDA, who have one of the best schedules for teams still contending...


GL
 
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Posted: #45
I think the BoSox are the right fit right now.
 
Philly looks pale against Was......nothing to be sure of!
 
I played the BoSox last night and got my $$, and looking forward play them instead of Philly.
 
let's keep rollin!
 
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Posted: #46
Thanks for the input guys. I'm gonna post remaining schedules next for review and more input.
 
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Posted: #47
Ok, so here are the remaining schedules for teams that have a realistic shot at the wild card in my opinion. I am excluding Tampa and Seattle in the AL b/c they are too far back. I am excluding the Cubs and Atlanta in the NL for the same reason.
 
In consideration are the Marlins (5.5 back), San Fran (4 back), and the current WC leader Colorado in the NL.
 
For the AL, Texas (2 back) along with the WC leader Boston.
 
AL:
Boston: Tampa (3), LAA (3), @Balt.(3), @KC(4), @NYY(3), Tor(3), Clev(4). 
Series vs. division leaders/2nd place in div./2nd in WC: 2
Series vs. average teams: 1
Series vs. scrub teams: 4
 
Texas: Sea(3), Oak(3), LAA(3), @Oak(4), Tam(3), @LAA(4), @Sea(3).
Series vs. division leaders/2nd place in div./2nd in WC: 2
Series vs. average teams: 3
Series vs. scrub teams: 2
 
NL:
Phillies: Mets(4), Was(3), @Atl(3), @Fla(3), @Mil(4), Hou(4), Fla(3).
Series vs. division leaders/2nd place in div/2nd in WC: 0
Series vs. average teams: 3 (I'm counting houston as average even though they are a 3 games under .500, b/c of their solid play as of late)
Series vs. scrub teams: 4
 
Colorado: @SD(3), @SF(3), @Ari(3), SD(3), Stl(3), Mil(3), @LAD(3).
Series vs. division leaders/2nd place in div/2nd in WC:3
Series vs. average teams:0
Series vs. scrub teams: 4
 
SanFran: LAD(3), Col(3), @LAD(3), @Ari(3), Cubs(4), Ari(3), @SD(3).
Series vs. div leaders/2nd place in div/2nd in WC: 3
Series vs average teams: 1 (can't believe I'm saying this for cubs, but their record = average)
Series vs. scrub teams: 3
 
Florida: Was(3), @Stl(3), @Cin(4), Phi(3), Mets(3), @Atl(3), @Phi(3).
Series vs. div leaders/2nd place in div/2nd in WC: 3
Series vs. average teams: 1
Series vs. scrub teams: 3
 
So, as it is by my criteria, the Phillies are the only team that do not have to play a division leader, 2nd place team in a division, or a 2nd place team in the wild card. That and they play 4 scrub teams.
 
In comparison, SF, Col, and Fla have 3 series against leaders/2nd in div/2nd in WC. Texas and Boston each have 2.
 
So throw out: SF, COL, and FLA.
 
Now, look at series vs. scrubs. Philles play 4, Boston plays 4, Texas plays 2. Throw out Texas.
 
That leaves Phillies and Boston. While Boston does have 2 top teams to play to Phillies 0, they only have 1 average game (at home) vs. Phillies 4.
 
The Phillies just about have locked in their division, where the Sox are trying to maintain a slim margin over Texas to grab the wild card. Plus the closer situation is still not settled in Philly.
Both have 4 home series left, and 3 away.
 
I am torn here, but leaning with staying with the Phillies. They have 2 series left against average teams that they have been swept by since the allstar break. And look at their remaining schedule. It is a joke. Absoutely a joke. Yeah Florida is good, but you think they are gonna back to back sweep the Phils? Or, will Houston back to back sweep them?
 
I think I will take the Phillies, but have them on a short leash, and see how the closer problem develops. Boston does have some nice matchups with games against Baltimore, KC, Toronto, and Cleveland, and I might take those too.
 
Time's yours.
 
 
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Posted: #48
hey nole, i think i'm going to hammer the yankees tomorrow as they play baltimore. maybe something like bet to win 150 (6 units) and then chase for the win. what do you think?
 
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Posted: #49
On3, safe plan, but the juice is -300!
I am going to continue to go with my plan, which is that a team like the Yankees are not gonna get swept by a team like Baltimore (at home no less). Will start the A a little smaller and increase the B if it comes up.
 
Updated record: 11-4  individual game record. 11-1 series record. Stl and NYY undefeated in series play and all winning on A game.
Money: -1.8 units (-$45)
 
Going with the 2 standards tonight: NYY and Stl.
I am gonna swap out the Phillies until they show me something. Will take Boston at home vs. Tampa. Boston's home record is SICK good, and they are playing a Tampa team that is horrible on the road.
 
NYY -300 vs. Baltimore. Wagering $150/$50.
Stl. -130 vs. Atlanta. Wagering $130/$100.
Boston vs. Tampa. Wagering $100/$50.
 
Will probably take Colorado for the late game depending on how the early games go. If 2 out of 3 or better win, I will go large on Colorado (to win 4 units or $100). No way Colorado should get swept by San Diego with the way they've been rollin' as of late.
 
GL y'all. God Bless America on this sad day.
 
 
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Posted: #50
Looks like the Vegas Fix is in tonight. A 1 hour rain delay well after midnite local NY time and a 1pm start time tomorrow.. down 6 in the 7th, and the field a mess.. and umps say the game will be resumed no matter what.

Any other game and the players are in their beds asleep by now, but Vegas obviously made the call and said to finish this game.. what a killing they will make in profit tonight off all the Yankee RL bets.

If you had ML, I guess it doesn't matter.. if u had RL like I did, then it really blows not to get the refund 

Interested in seeing how you'll play this again tomorrow, with another -300 game on the board.

Cheers
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